2016 Republican Nomination Poll - June 2014

[Senator Cris]

I have decided to open this poll all the months for see the opinion of the forum and make comparison with the precedent month.

The results of May (in parentheses the variations with April).

Jeb Bush 25,3% (+ 2,7%)
Rand Paul 22,7% (- 3,1%)
Scott Walker 14,7% (- 2,5%)
Chris Christie 6,7% (+ 1,3%)
Mike Pence 5,3% (+ 2,1%)
Ted Cruz 2,7% (- 2,7%)
Sarah Palin 2,7% (- 0,5%)
Mitt Romney 2,7% (+ 0,5%)
Mike Huckabee 1,3% (- 0,9%)
Brian Sandoval 1,3% (- 0,9%)
Marco Rubio 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
Paul Ryan 1,3% (+0,2%)
John Kasich 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
Rick Santorum 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
Rob Portman 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
John Huntsman 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
Donald Trump 1,3% (+ 0,2%) 
Rick Perry 1,3% (+ 0,2%)
Condi Rice 1,3% (+ 1,3%)
Ben Carson 1,3% (+ 1,3%)
Susana Martinez 1,3% (+ 1,3%)
Tim Pawlenty 0% (- 1,1%)
Peter King 0% (- 1,1%)
John Bolton 0% (- 2,4%)
Scott Brown 0% (=)
Bobby Jindal 0% (=)
Steve King 0% (=)
Rick Synder 0% (=)
Allen West 0% (=)
John Thune 0% (=)
Kelly Ayotte 0% (=)
Mary Fallin 0% (=)
Nikki Haley 0% (=)
Sam Brownback 0% (=)
Joe Scarborough 0% (=)
Other 0% (=)

Graphic:



Top 8:

[Suburbia]

Pence. He's the original true-blue conservative that Republicans are looking for. He's scandal-free and feisty. I don't think Bush/Christie/Ryan/Kasich/Walker is "conservative enough" for the Free Republic crowd that controls the GOP voting bloc today. Walker comes across as second-rate and scandal-ridden. However, Jindal and Thune should be the top veep choice for any nominee.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Scott Walker or Jeb Bush.

[Suburbia]

Walker just seems like he has some baggage, although his record is appealing to GOP voters. Gingrich would be a dark horse contender, the media would love a Gingrich-Hillary debates in 2016, but it's unlikely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I accidentally Paul Ryan

(Was going for Randy)

[TarHeelDem]

In descending order of likelihood: Bush, Walker, Paul, Ryan.

[Suburbia]

I just can't see Bush or Walker winning the nomination right now. Not with the Free Republic website and the uber-conservative crowd that controls the GOP voting bloc. I just can't.

[IceSpear]

I just can't see Bush or Walker winning the nomination right now. Not with the Free Republic website and the uber-conservative crowd that controls the GOP voting bloc. I just can't.

I'm pretty sure the Free Republic crowd preferred Alan Keyes, Duncan Hunter, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, etc.

Anyway, I'm still saying Walker.

[BaconBacon96]

I'm back to saying Walker.

[RedPrometheus]

I couldn't even guess.

[Maxwell]

Rand Paul. I could see the nomination be a three-way battle between Paul, Walker, and Bush.

[Frodo]

Rand Paul. I could see the nomination be a three-way battle between Paul, Walker, and Bush.

If Scott Walker is re-elected governor, that is.  And that is very much in doubt...   

[Suburbia]

Rand Paul. I could see the nomination be a three-way battle between Paul, Walker, and Bush.

I see the finalists for the GOP nod as: Paul, Santorum, Pence, and Bush. Pence wins as the scandal-free candidate and the true "Reagan heir", Walker's scandal baggage won't help, unless he distances himself from it.

[Maxwell]

Rand Paul. I could see the nomination be a three-way battle between Paul, Walker, and Bush.

If Scott Walker is re-elected governor, that is.  And that is very much in doubt...   

I don't think it is. The polls in Wisconsin are going to be close like they were before, but Walker has been shown to win in close spots.

[SWE]

I just can't see Bush or Walker winning the nomination right now. Not with the Free Republic website and the uber-conservative crowd that controls the GOP voting bloc. I just can't.

Sort of like how they stopped McCain and Romney from winning the nomination?

[Suburbia]

I just can't see Bush or Walker winning the nomination right now. Not with the Free Republic website and the uber-conservative crowd that controls the GOP voting bloc. I just can't.

Sort of like how they stopped McCain and Romney from winning the nomination?

I'm not speaking for Free Republic, but I have co-workers who spew their talk day in and out. They didn't turn out in droves even with Palin and Ryan on the ticket because they feel that they are "insufficiently conservative" and too amnesty. They're not joking this time. Free Republic loathes Christie, Walker (due to immigration reform), and Bush. Trust me. They will not turn out if Bush or Christie is the nominee.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Christie

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Walker

[Reaganfan]

 Chris Christie

[Bull Moose Base]

I'll say Cruz is the most likely nominee but <10% to end up the nominee. I think however you rank them, I doubt the most likely nominee is much more likely than the 7th or 8th most likely. It's wide open.

Cruz, Paul, Jindal, Santorum and Perry may not look as strong as other potential candidates, but many of those are less likely to even run so it balances out. The first 3 in that group look stronger than the Santorum and Perry. Even though the GOP almost never nominates someone on their first run, candidates making a second run almost never poll as badly as Santorum and Perry do now. Of Cruz, Paul and Jindal, Cruz and Paul are the 2 who've shown some ability to break through, Cruz and Jindal are the 2 with the fewest deal breakers with the base. I think that adds up to Cruz as being the #1 seed here.

None of the potential establishment choices are "pure", some with more serious vulnerabilities than others. I realize McCain and Romney weren't pure but they were also pitted against weaker fields than 2016 looks to be. Walker looks the most "pure" (despite signaling he approves a path to citizenship then denying he did so) but there's still a good chance he loses re-election or wins but defers to a Ryan run. Not to mention, his establishment support is rockier than ever.

[Simfan34]

Pence is the dark horse here.

[daveosupremo]

Walker

[badgate]

Cool graphs

[Senator Cris]

Cool graphs

Thanks!

[Frodo]

As of now, it increasingly looks as if Jeb Bush is the only establishment candidate who can win the nomination, with Rand Paul the only possible candidate who can pose a threat to him.  Chris Christie is effectively crippled by Bridgegate, and Scott Walker looks like he won't fare any better -and he can just forget about it altogether if he loses his re-election bid in November.