June 3 primary predictions

[Tender Branson]

I'll do the important ones:

MS: 49 McDaniel, 48% Cochran, 3% Other (could of course go the other way too)

IA: Ernst wins with some 41%

CA: Gov. Brown wins with some 56%

NM: 1. Webber, 2. King, 3. Rael, 4. Morales, 5. Lopez (no percentages, because I have no clue)

[GaussLaw]

The 3 I can predict:
MS: 50 Cochran 48 McDaniel

IA: Ernst wins with 45%
CA: Gov. Brown wins with 60%

[Maxwell]

New Jersey - Murray Sabrin wins with low 30s or high 20s.

Iowa - 42% Joni Ernst, 22% Mark Jacobs, 19% Sam Clovis, 14% Matt Whitaker, 3% the other guy

California - 61% Gov. Jerry Brown, who cares about the others

New Mexico - Not King

Montana - 48% Walsh, 38% Bohlinger, 14% Adams

[ElectionsGuy]

Senate:

MS - Cochran wins by 2-5 points over McDaniel, no runoff
IA - Ernst wins with a decent margin in the 40's.
MT - Walsh wins with >50%

House:

NJ-3 - Lonegan wins with >60%
MS-4 - Palazzo wins easily, Taylor gets 20-25%
AL-6 - Some tea party guy wins, goes to a runoff

[Bojack Horseman]

In California, Brown squares off against Tim Donnelly, which will be a bloodbath come November.

[RogueBeaver]

IA: Ernst 40
MS: McDaniel leads or wins
CA: Brown v. Donnelly
MS-4: Palazzo wins easily

[Maxwell]

Are you guys ignoring the latest poll that has Neel Kashkari five points up on Donnelly?

[badgate]

In California, Brown squares off against Tim Donnelly, which will be a bloodbath come November.

Hopefully after bathing in blood Jerry Brown will be 10 years younger and launch a Presidential campaign.

[Flake]

Mississippi: 50-49-1 McDaniel-Cochran-Carey
Iowa: 38-26-19-17 Ernst-Jacobs-Clovis-Whitaker
California: 57-15-13-15 Brown-Donnelly-Kashkari-Others
Montana: 54-44-2 Walsh-Bohlinger-Adams

[Talleyrand]

IA: Ernst 40+
MS: Cochran wins
CA: Brown v. Kashkari
MS-4: Palazzo wins comfortably, not heavily
MT: Bohlinger wins in upset
NM: King loses
NJ-3: The establishment candidate wins

[Del Tachi]

MS-Sen:  Cochran 53%, McDaniel 44%
MS-04:  Palazzo wins something like 58/37 over Taylor

No idea on the others.

[tmthforu94]

California: Brown wins with 60%, Kashkari wins the second spot
Iowa: Ernst wins with roughly 40%
Mississippi: My gut says Cochran narrowly wins, though I suspect it goes to a run-off where McDaniel will be favored
Montana: Walsh wins by around 10%
New Mexico: Webber narrowly edges King

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Are you guys ignoring the latest poll that has Neel Kashkari five points up on Donnelly?

Ugh I saw that, I wanted a Brown vs. Donnelly race so badly.

Kashkari has been going crazy lately with mailers in Orange County.

[Хahar 🤔]

Kashkari getting the nomination is difficult to imagine just because he's such an awful candidate in every way.

[IceSpear]

CA: 56-20-17 Brown/Donnelly/Kashkari
IA: Ernst wins in the low 40's.
MS: 51-46 McDaniel
MS-4: 65-35 Palazzo
MT: 62-38 Walsh
NJ-3: 53-47 MacArthur
NM: King narrowly wins in the 30s.

[Maxwell]

I would be amazed if Palazzo wins with anything less than 70%.

[GaussLaw]

Who is Gene's base now with the switch?  Just about nobody?

[GMantis]

California - 52% Jerry Brown, 18% Tim Donnelly, 12% Neel Kashkari
Iowa - 48% Joni Ernst
Mississippi - 49% Chris McDaniel, 48% Thad Cochran
Montana - John Walsh
New Jersey - Murray Sabrin
New Mexico - Gary King

[Tender Branson]

Mississippi - 49% Chris McDaniel, 48% Thad Cochran

Stealing my prediction is a capital offense.

[Miles]

MS: I have a feeling McDaniel wins, but for official prediction purposes, I'll go with the actual MS posters and say Cochran pulls it off 51/46-ish.
MS-04: Taylor beats Palazzo (no polling to go off of, so kinda a shot in the dark).
CA: Brown clears 50% with a few points to spare, Donnelly gets 2nd place.
CA-07: Another shot in the dark, but Birman seems to have the momentum over Ose for the runoff berth.
IA: Ernst gets 40-42%.
MT: Walsh by 15-20.
NJ: No idea on Senate, but I want Bonnie Watson Coleman in CD12, and I think she's a frontrunner.
NM: Haven't followed it closely, but I'll say King squeaks by.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Has anyone seen the Wikipedia article on the New Mexico gubernatorial election? I just cleaned a ton of pro King propaganda off it. They even said that Gary Johnson had endorsed King and put King in the infobox even though he hasn't won the primary.

[Del Tachi]

MS: I have a feeling McDaniel wins, but for official prediction purposes, I'll go with the actual MS posters and say Cochran pulls it off 51/46-ish.
MS-04: Taylor beats Palazzo (no polling to go off of, so kinda a shot in the dark).
CA: Brown clears 50% with a few points to spare, Donnelly gets 2nd place.
CA-07: Another shot in the dark, but Birman seems to have the momentum over Ose for the runoff berth.
IA: Ernst gets 40-42%.
MT: Walsh by 15-20.
NJ: No idea on Senate, but I want Bonnie Watson Coleman in CD12, and I think she's a frontrunner.
NM: Haven't followed it closely, but I'll say King squeaks by.

We can only hope

[Suburbia]

MS: McDaniel 50%, Cochran 48%
MS-04: Taylor 51% Palazzo 46%
CA-Gov: Brown 53%, Donnelly 17%, Kashkari 12%
Iowa: Ernst 49%
Montana: John Walsh, Steve Daines wins respective nominations
NJ: Pezzullo wins
NJ-03: McArthur wins primary, you'll see Lonegan run for office again (2017 governor)
NM: King, Gov. Martinez wins respective nominations
AL: Bentley wins re-nomination, Parker Griffith wins nomination, (former DINO-turned-GOPer-now DINO)
SD: Rounds wins and prepares to be junior Senator-elect Rounds (unless Weiland sparks enthusiasm among South Dakota Democrats)

[publicunofficial]

MS:
-McDaniel beats Cochran
-Pallazzo beats Taylor
CA:
-Brown clears 50% in primary
-Ose wins GOP nod in CA-07
-Aguilar and Gooch advance to general in CA-31
-Strickland and Rogers advance to general in CA-25
IA:
-Ernst wins GOP primary
-Pat Murphy wins IA-01 Dem primary
-IA-03 primary goes to convention
MT:
-Walsh destroys Bohlinger
-Ryan Zinke wins MT-AL primary
NJ:
-Bonnie Watson Coleman wins NJ-12 Dem primary
-Tom MacArthur beats Steve Lonegan in NJ-03 GOP Primary
NM:
-King wins Dem nomination, but I haven't followed this closely at all.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Kashkari getting the nomination is difficult to imagine just because he's such an awful candidate in every way.

I don't think it's unimaginable for him to make it out of the jungle primary, but he is a terrible candidate. He can do well in Sacramento at suit and tie fundraisers, but when he is out in the community (he was at a veteran's event in San Diego the other day) he was visibly uncomfortable and didn't know how to act around all the friendly, easygoing, beer-drinking veterans.

Also any chance at a path to victory for him would be chipping away at the hispanic vote, which he has totally neglected. He's just been trying to ramp up turnout in Republican districts, and hasn't had really any foresight past June 3rd. He'll be dead in the water if he makes it through today.

And WTF was his tree-chopping ad?! It's a nonpartisan concept in California that all Californians love their pretty beaches, sequoia/redwood forests, snow capped mountains, etc. Who thought it was a good idea to chop up trees?? The image that gives off is not great.

His campaign staff are probably crap.