What % of the black Republican vote would Cain or Carson win in the primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

A sequel to this thread from 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142445.0

If Cain runs, what % of the black Republican vote will he win in the primaries?
If Carson runs, what % of the black Republican vote will he win in the primaries?

[BaconBacon96]

Is it even measurable? I mean there's so few Black Republicans to begin with...

[Mr. Morden]

Is it even measurable? I mean there's so few Black Republicans to begin with...

No, it's not measurable.  We'll never know the real answer.  That doesn't mean one can't make an educated guess.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Maybe they would vote based on who was most qualified, rather than just based on race?

[senyor_brownbear]

Maybe they would vote based on who was most qualified, rather than just based on race?

In which case, both would get 0% of the vote, for having no political experience whatsoever.

[Never]

If Cain runs, he would probably win 5% of the black Republican vote in the primaries.
If Carson runs, he might get anywhere from a third to half of the black Republican vote in the primaries.

[history nerd]

Considering neither is qualified to be president... I wonder how Tim Scott, Allen West, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice or J.C. Watts might do.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If Cain runs, he would probably win 9% of the black Republican vote in the primaries.
If Carson runs, he might get anywhere from a third to half of the black Republican vote in the primaries.

[GaussLaw]

Considering neither is qualified to be president... I wonder how Tim Scott, Allen West, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice or J.C. Watts might do.

I firmly believe Tim Scott could be a dark horse.  He's a black conservative Republican, not objectionable, and has proven he can win.

[Mopsus]

If Cain runs, he would probably win 99.9% of the black Republican vote in the primaries.
If Carson runs, he might get anywhere from a third to half of the black Republican vote in the primaries.

[TarHeelDem]

I don't think there are enough Black Republicans for this to have any sort of impact on the race.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think there are enough Black Republicans for this to have any sort of impact on the race.

Of course it won't have an impact on the race.  That's not the point.  The point is that it's a fun question to ponder.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I'm also wondering how the Hispanic Republican vote will go, given the possibility of Cruz and Rubio in the race.

Obviously, Republicans tend to do poorly with Hispanics overall, yet not so poorly with Cubans specifically.  Any idea what is the number of Mexican American voters in GOP presidential primaries vs. the number of Cuban American voters in said primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

From the 2012 exit polls, a few states of interest:

Florida GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl
83% white
14% Latino
1% black
1% Asian
1% other

Nevada GOP caucus:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nv
90% white
5% Latino
2% Asian
1% black
2% other

South Carolina GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/sc
98% white
1% black
1% other

Michigan GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi
92% white
3% Latino
2% black
2% Asian
1% other

Arizona GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az
89% white
8% Latino
1% black
1% Asian
1% other

[Free Bird]

Maybe they would vote based on who was most qualified, rather than just based on race?

Obama 08, anyone ?

[Never]

Maybe they would vote based on who was most qualified, rather than just based on race?

Obama 08, anyone ?

[Mister Mets]

Well, I suppose they'd win their families. So that would be a fairly large percent.

[Ebowed]

Maybe they would vote based on who was most qualified, rather than just based on race?

Obama 08, anyone ?

John Kerry won 89% of blacks in 2004.

Incidentally, Al Sharpton won no black counties in the 2004 Democratic primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Now that Carson is running second in national polls, this thread has become more relevant. 

Carson's at about 10% nationally, and a bit more than that in Iowa.  I wonder what % of the black Republican vote he's getting right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

*bump*

Now that Carson is running second in national polls, this thread has become more relevant. 

Carson's at about 10% nationally, and a bit more than that in Iowa.  I wonder what % of the black Republican vote he's getting right now.

LOL, second?

[Beet]

Let's see, assuming he gets Clarence Thomas, Alan Keyes, Tim Scott, J.C. Watts, Mia Love, Ayan Hirsi Ali, Thomas Sowell, and Herman Cain, and that crazy dude from Florida. Colin Powell and Condolezza Rice would probably go for Bush. So his max is 9 out of 11, or 82%

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Now that Carson is running second in national polls, this thread has become more relevant. 

LOL, second?

In CNN's latest poll, he's in second place, behind Romney (or second place behind Bush if Romney doesn't run):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=203557.0

In the latest poll of Iowa to include him, he's in second place there as well, just 1% behind Huckabee:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201668.0

[politicus]

Considering neither is qualified to be president... I wonder how Tim Scott, Allen West, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice or J.C. Watts might do.

I firmly believe Tim Scott could be a dark horse.  He's a black conservative Republican, not objectionable, and has proven he can win.

He would be a fine VP pick, at least on paper.

[Ljube]

A more interesting question would be: What percentage of the black vote would Carson win in the general election?
I suspect that the answer to that question would be - above 30%.

[Tender Branson]

A more interesting question would be: What percentage of the black vote would Carson win in the general election?
I suspect that the answer to that question would be - above 30%.

Are you crazy ?

Carson would not get more than the average White Republican got.

Tim Scott for example did not get more than 10% in SC this year.