What % of the black Republican vote would Cain or Carson win in the primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

A sequel to this thread from 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142445.0

If Cain runs, what % of the black Republican vote will he win in the primaries?
If Carson runs, what % of the black Republican vote will he win in the primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

Is it even measurable? I mean there's so few Black Republicans to begin with...

No, it's not measurable.  We'll never know the real answer.  That doesn't mean one can't make an educated guess.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think there are enough Black Republicans for this to have any sort of impact on the race.

Of course it won't have an impact on the race.  That's not the point.  The point is that it's a fun question to ponder.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I'm also wondering how the Hispanic Republican vote will go, given the possibility of Cruz and Rubio in the race.

Obviously, Republicans tend to do poorly with Hispanics overall, yet not so poorly with Cubans specifically.  Any idea what is the number of Mexican American voters in GOP presidential primaries vs. the number of Cuban American voters in said primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

From the 2012 exit polls, a few states of interest:

Florida GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl
83% white
14% Latino
1% black
1% Asian
1% other

Nevada GOP caucus:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nv
90% white
5% Latino
2% Asian
1% black
2% other

South Carolina GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/sc
98% white
1% black
1% other

Michigan GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi
92% white
3% Latino
2% black
2% Asian
1% other

Arizona GOP primary:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az
89% white
8% Latino
1% black
1% Asian
1% other

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Now that Carson is running second in national polls, this thread has become more relevant. 

Carson's at about 10% nationally, and a bit more than that in Iowa.  I wonder what % of the black Republican vote he's getting right now.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Now that Carson is running second in national polls, this thread has become more relevant. 

LOL, second?

In CNN's latest poll, he's in second place, behind Romney (or second place behind Bush if Romney doesn't run):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=203557.0

In the latest poll of Iowa to include him, he's in second place there as well, just 1% behind Huckabee:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201668.0