California continues left-ward - only 8.5% Republicans left in San Francisco

[eric82oslo]

The state of California has seen a dramatic shift left-ward in its political leanings between 2004 and 2014. While the percentage of self-identified Democrats has remained more or less the same, and today stands at 43.5%, the number of Republicans has hit a serious blow. Republicans today only account for 28.6% of the state's voters, down from a fairly impressive 35.7% in 2004. That means that Democrats' advantage in California has risen from +7.8% in 2004 till today's +14.9%, almost doubling its margin of advantage.

At the same time, every single California county except two, the two to the most far north east, has seen its county percentage of Republicans decline. It's gotten so bad now for state Republicans that not one single county in California now can boost with residing a majority, or more than 50%, Republicans. The closest you come is 49.2% in Modoc County, a county that borders both Oregon and Nevada. On the other side of the specter you find San Francisco County, one of the most heavily Democratic counties there is anywhere in the US. No California county has seen its share of Republican voters drop more than this one over the past decade; dropping from 12.5% in 2004 to only 8.5% today. That equals a drop of impressive 32% of Republicans' total voting stock in that county.

In this article you have an interactive map where you can find details on the decade-long changes in every single California county: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/05/27/6435979/see-where-in-california-the-republican.html

According to the article, the number of non-partisans/independents/those who refuse to state their partisan leanings might surpass the number of California Republicans already in 2024, if the current trendline continues at the same speed.

[Rockefeller GOP]

What's Orange County at?  I know it's voted GOP for ages.

[Frodo]

What's Orange County at?  I know it's voted GOP for ages.

This ought to answer your question. 

[eric82oslo]

What's Orange County at?  I know it's voted GOP for ages.

This ought to answer your question.  

America's Most Republican County doesn't seem to be so Republican anymore.
If current trends continue, Orange County might turn blue in only 8 years (in 2022), or perhaps even less, if the trend accelerates further. In fact, Republicans maintained their +18% advantage until 2006, it's from then on it's gone downhill. And now they're just +9% ahead.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Two words: Tea Party.

[Suburbia]

California is getting unwinnable for a Republican. If an uninspiring Democrat runs for office, maybe Meg Whitman, Kevin McCarthy, or Devin Nunes can make it competitive. At the presidential level, a John Thune or a Jeb Bush could make it competitive, but they won't win the state.

[Mechaman]

Thank you Mexicans for scaring reactionary white people out of the state.  I can only hope the trend continues with the Silicon class, who are a pox on the body politic.

[eric82oslo]

Also, strangely enough, the Libertarian Party is only the 5th biggest party among registered Californian voters. The third biggest is the American Independent Party (whatever that is?) and the fourth biggest is the Green Party.

Source: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/15day-primary-2014/hist-reg-stats.pdf

[greenforest32]

Could California start giving Democrats higher % margins than New York?

[Meursault]

The American Independent Party is George Wallaces' old warhorse. Odd it's as large as it is in California. Did Wallace run unusually well there in 1968.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The American Independent Party is George Wallaces' old warhorse. Odd it's as large as it is in California. Did Wallace run unusually well there in 1968.

It's pretty clear that a large number of their members are dumbs who thought they were registering to be independent.

[Bojack Horseman]

California is about the only place in America left that I'd be willing to live in. I want to leave the Unites States just a little bit more with each passing day.

[Rockefeller GOP]

California is about the only place in America left that I'd be willing to live in. I want to leave the Unites States just a little bit more with each passing day.

Go for it!

[Frodo]

California is about the only place in America left that I'd be willing to live in. I want to leave the Unites States just a little bit more with each passing day.

Not even Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, or New England appeal to you?  

[Hamster]

Not even Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, or New England appeal to you?  

When thinking about where one would like to live, there is more than state voting patterns to consider. The Pacific Northwest is too dreary. Minnesota and New England are too cold. And Hawaii is an island chain; I would go made driving around the coast and never getting anywhere. California is a wonderfully large and diverse state.

[Spamage]

Not even Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, or New England appeal to you?  

When thinking about where one would like to live, there is more than state voting patterns to consider. The Pacific Northwest is too dreary. Minnesota and New England are too cold. And Hawaii is an island chain; I would go made driving around the coast and never getting anywhere. California is a wonderfully large and diverse state.

It's one of the most beautiful areas in the country. Much better than the East.

[Non Swing Voter]

Shocking that people in San Francisco aren't voting Republican considering the outreach effort Republicans have recently made to gays by promoting gay therapy in Texas.  I'm actually surprised that about 1 in 10 people in San Francisco actually vote Republican.  They must be ultra rich and hold their noses when they do it.

[Citizen Hats]

Shocking that people in San Francisco aren't voting Republican considering the outreach effort Republicans have recently made to gays by promoting gay therapy in Texas.  I'm actually surprised that about 1 in 10 people in San Francisco actually vote Republican.  They must be ultra rich and hold their noses when they do it.

Probably just a few small businessmen and lawyers here and there. Being wealthy is no barrier to being a Democrat in California

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The American Independent Party is George Wallaces' old warhorse. Odd it's as large as it is in California. Did Wallace run unusually well there in 1968.

Actually, it was one of his weakest states, he got only 7% of the vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_California,_1968

[jamesyons]

Asians used to vote more Republicans with H.W. Bush and Dole winning them easily with Obama winning them by more than Hispanics in 2012 taking away many of the Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

If republicans continue their anti-immigrant attitude then they deserve it. They can't just continue pushing their cultural conservatism without alienating people, especially in increasingly diversifying California. Even Orange County is slipping away from them, and San Diego, San Bernardino, and even Riverside seem to be Lean D counties. Obviously the valley is just done for them and has been for a long time, so they don't have any clear path to even a narrow victory.

[eric82oslo]

Asians used to vote more Republicans with H.W. Bush and Dole winning them easily with Obama winning them by more than Hispanics in 2012 taking away many of the Republicans.

That Asian block in the 1990s was much different from the Asian block of today.

Earlier, a large percentage of the Asian population were Vietnamese and Filipinos, who vote Republican.

Now, you have Indians, Chinese, Pakistanis, Cambodians, Koreans, Japanese, and many others. These groups all vote Democrat.

You can't really compare the Asian population from 1990 and now. In fact, the term "Asian" may be too broad, considering the diversity.

True. Also you can't scare people with the "red scare" tactics of the 70ies and 80ies anymore, which probably used to work on many Asians back then. You're very right that the Asian population has been rapidly diversifying, just like the latino population has been rapidly diversifying as well, particularily in Florida.

[Bojack Horseman]

California is about the only place in America left that I'd be willing to live in. I want to leave the Unites States just a little bit more with each passing day.

Not even Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, or New England appeal to you?  

Hawaii's too expensive and it snows in the rest of those places, so they're automatically a no. If I liked the winters, I'd be headed to Massachusetts or New York.