Guessing the tipping point of 2016

[eric82oslo]

As of early 2016 poll results - and all of its 124 polls it's based on - it seems the most likely right now that Michigan will turn out to be the ultimate tipping point state of 2016. However, it's extremely close among the top battleground states at the moment, and a few important states have yet to be polled even once, including Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and Washington.

This is how close, on average, each state is from being the ultimate tipping point state based on polling so far out this season:

Michigan: Current tipping point state
Wisconsin: 0.3%
Minnesota: 1.2%
Pennsylvania: 1.3%
Ohio: 1.4%
Virginia: 1.6%
Iowa: 2.2%
Florida: 2.6%
New Hampshire: 2.7%
Maine: 3.2%
North Carolina: 3.9%
New Jersey: 5.7%
Arizona: 5.8%
Georgia: 6.8%
Oregon: 7.2%
Arkansas: 7.8%
Colorado: 8.3%
Kentucky: 8.8%
New Mexico: 9.2%
Louisiana: 9.8%
Nevada: No polling yet
Missouri: No polling yet
Indiana: No polling yet
Washington: No polling yet

So which state do you think is the most likely one to turn into the ultimate tipping pointer come autumn of 2016? You can vote for up to 5 states.

[Mr. Morden]

What do you mean "vote for up to 5 options"?  Do you want us to vote for just the most likely, or the 5 most likely?  What is the specific question being asked?

[eric82oslo]

What do you mean "vote for up to 5 options"?  Do you want us to vote for just the most likely, or the 5 most likely?  What is the specific being asked?

I expect it to be hard to just chose one, as it's almost impossible to say this far out which one it will be. Just like in 2012 when there were basically two tipping point states; Colorado and Pennsylvania. The difference between them was 0.02% I think.

Sorry for the poll question title. It should be 2016 and not 2015 of course.

[Never]

The five most likely tipping point states for 2016 seem to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.

[Mister Mets]

In 2008, Obama states Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado were below the tipping point. It was Iowa's seven electoral votes that tipped the election for Obama, although there was a difference of less than a tenth of a point between Iowa and New Hampshire, so it might have been that state.

In 2012, the Obama states below the tipping point were Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Colorado became the tipping point state, benefiting from electoral gains in safe Republican states and purple states. The difference between Colorado and Pennsylvania was 1/50th of the vote. New Hampshire and Iowa were close behind.

The key question is how swapping Obama for Hillary will change things. White voters in Florida may be more amenable to Hillary, and its size gives it disproportionate significance in any tipping point calculations. It also has a larger African American population so lower turnout could hurt Democrats. And it's likelier than most states to have a Republican presidential nominee.

I'd guess likely tipping points would be Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

[⛄]

What is a tipping point state?

[eric82oslo]

What is a tipping point state?

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

Was Colorado in 2012 and 2008. Ohio in 2004. Florida in 2000.

Here's the entire list btw: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176237.0

[King]

Hillary is going to do better in Virginia and Pennsylvania than Obama but worse in Colorado.

That makes New Hampshire the tipping state as I see it.

[Suburbia]

I say Missouri, Ohio, Minnesota, Virginia, and Iowa.

[pbrower2a]

Most likely:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Colorado
3. Virginia
4. Iowa
5. New Hampshire
6. Ohio

[bballrox4717]

I really, really don't buy Pennsylvania or New Hampshire flipping to a Republican against Hillary in a tight election unless Christie is the nominee. The Clintons (especially Hillary) have been absolutely wired into those states in the past. I realize New Hampshire has always been flexible, but honestly, if polls start to show Pennsylvania moving from lean D to tossup, Hillary is going to unleash an unholy hell of money there. Every Dem knows that if they lose Pennsylvania it's over. They won't let it happen unless they are down by more than 5 points.

I'd pick Colorado as the tipping point state. It's a microcosm of the problems Hillary could face if Obama isn't able to deliver the base that carried him to his victory over her in the 2008 primary. Hillary loses if she doesn't get latte liberals/libertarian leaning liberals to vote for her.

All of this assumes, of course, that Republicans flip Obama states like Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin in the mid-west. Those states should just be a starting point for Republicans since Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado have trended so much to the Democrats.

[BaconBacon96]

Ohio.

[⛄]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

[eric82oslo]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

If not on election night, on which night would you be thinking? The week before election night? The week after? You're making me a bit confused. So many questions, and not even one of them have ever passed my mind.

[⛄]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

If not on election night, on which night would you be thinking? The week before election night? The week after? You're making me a bit confused. So many questions, and not even one of them have ever passed my mind.

You could also list all the states, ordered by their results.
Than you add up the EV, beginning with the most Democratic or Republican state, respectively.
The state that that tips the election in one party's favor could also be called "tipping point state".

[Never]

The five most likely tipping point states for 2016 seem to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.

This is either completely intellectually dishonest or stunningly absurd, probably the latter sadly.

I'm not being dishonest, and I am not trying to be absurd. Any of those five states that I listed could very well be the tipping point state. These states don't have to be close, and I'm not sure if you missed that or not. The tipping point is the state which would push the winning presidential candidate above 270 electoral votes. In 2012, Obama's tipping points were Colorado and Pennsylvania, and Romney was by no means close to victory in either state. In 1984, Michigan was the tipping point state for Ronald Reagan because he won it by roughly the same margin as the nation, even though neither his margin of victory in Michigan nor his national margin were close.

A Democrat or Republican could win the electoral college by a landslide in 2016, and the states I listed might still theoretically put him or her above 270 electoral votes. It's not like a Romney 2012 state will push a Democrat over the top, and of course, if the Republican wins in 2016, an Obama 2012 state will take them above the threshold for victory.

Perhaps before attacking my opinion, you should explain which state you think could be the tipping point

[Mister Mets]

The five most likely tipping point states for 2016 seem to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.

This is either completely intellectually dishonest or stunningly absurd, probably the latter sadly.

What's your objection here?

[MATTROSE94]

I say Missouri, Ohio, Minnesota, Virginia, and Iowa.

That seems about right, though I might swap out Minnesota for Wisconsin (especially if Scott Walker is the Republican nominee).

[TDAS04]

I voted for Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

[eric82oslo]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

If not on election night, on which night would you be thinking? The week before election night? The week after? You're making me a bit confused. So many questions, and not even one of them have ever passed my mind.

You could also list all the states, ordered by their results.
Than you add up the EV, beginning with the most Democratic or Republican state, respectively.
The state that that tips the election in one party's favor could also be called "tipping point state".

That's basically what I mean With tipping point state. Is there any other definition? I don't think so.

[eric82oslo]

With today's 10th poll from Iowa, here's an update.

This is how close, on average, each state is from being the ultimate tipping point state based on all polling (averages) so far out this season:

Michigan: Current tipping point state
Wisconsin: 0.3%
Iowa: 1%
Minnesota: 1.2%
Pennsylvania: 1.3%
Ohio: 1.4%
Virginia: 1.6%
Florida: 2.6%
New Hampshire: 2.7%
Maine: 3.2%
North Carolina: 3.9%
New Jersey: 5.7%
Arizona: 5.8%
Georgia: 6.8%
Oregon: 7.2%
Arkansas: 7.8%
Colorado: 8.3%
Kentucky: 8.8%
New Mexico: 9.2%
Louisiana: 9.8%
Nevada: No polling yet
Missouri: No polling yet
Indiana: No polling yet
Washington: No polling yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio and Pa.

[⛄]

That's basically what I mean With tipping point state. Is there any other definition? I don't think so.

I looked at JRP's list, and it said that Florida was the tipping point state in 2000 and that Ohio was the 2004 tipping point.
As a consequence, I thought a tipping point state were that state whose announcement gives the winning candidate the edge.