Enough with Invincible Hillary

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

She is the strongest in the Dem and GOP field as of right now. Obviously, I think that'll change come 2016 with the grind of the general election.

The GOP base is actually made up of regular conservatives who will nominate "the next in line". They never nominate "the most conservative", because that person appeals to literally 10% of the base. Regular conservatives are ~40% of the GOP primary electorate, with ~30% identifying as moderate, only 10% is "radically conservative", and ~20% is evangelical.

Despite all the TEA talk, the mainstream conservatives are the most powerful and will nominate people like Christie, Portman, Walker, etc. and when the candidates of the moderates and radical cons fall, those groups will fall in line with the Mainstream's candidate, with the Evangelicals putting up a losing fight. We saw this perfectly in 2012, which is why Romney won.

The GOP will nominate a mainstream conservative. Cruz won't go anywhere, other than damage the eventual nominee and the GOP brand (ala 2012). This candidate will obviously start with a disadvantage against Hillary, but depending on how the cards fall and are played, they could beat her.

With today's climate, I could see her beating a GOPer with 49%-50% of the vote against 47-48% (possibly closer), but this is all subject to change over the next 2 years and 5 months. She has the advantage, but you're correct in that she is not a cakewalk.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The evidence that Ryan is a gigantic underdog against Hillary isn't the 2012 result in Wisconsin, it's that Ryan looks unlikely to run. Is there anyone who isn't a Republican who doubts she'd destroy him?
 

Despite all the TEA talk, the mainstream conservatives are the most powerful and will nominate people like Christie, Portman, Walker, etc. and when the candidates of the moderates and radical cons fall, those groups will fall in line with the Mainstream's candidate, with the Evangelicals putting up a losing fight. We saw this perfectly in 2012, which is why Romney won.

The GOP will nominate a mainstream conservative. Cruz won't go anywhere, other than damage the eventual nominee and the GOP brand (ala 2012).

I'm not sure what mainstream means here but Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum losing was not about them being too conservative. It was about other stuff that doesn't really seem to apply to Cruz.

I mean "mainstream" as in "establishment". I was referring to my post analyzing the GOP primary/general election electorate with all the percentages. The GOP will not nominate a TEA Partier or Evangelical warrior (though GWB did kind of have some of that). They will continue to nominate establishment candidates who are conservative but not radical, as they have been.