2010-memories

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I do have one question. Rand Paul in KY-4 l. ITTL did he just decide not to run for the senate and go more in his dad's footsteps? Justin Amash not getting in 😢 at least give us Mike Lee and Marco Rubio. I'm ok with Bachaman losing (need less neocon and more noninterventionist is a good thing for congress)

[NewYorkExpress]

I do have one question. Rand Paul in KY-4 l. ITTL did he just decide not to run for the senate and go more in his dad's footsteps? Justin Amash not getting in 😢 at least give us Mike Lee and Marco Rubio. I'm ok with Bachaman losing (need less neocon and more noninterventionist is a good thing for congress)

The basic concept is that the GOP is more united following Coakley's victory, meaning fewer divisive primaries for them. Rand here, calculated he would have a better chance of beating Ben Chandler than winning a state-wide primary. Look for him to gain an early role in House Leadership (possibly President of the Freshman class). Lee didn't run because Bob Bennett's retirement removed any chance of him winning a GOP primary, and If this TL continues to 2012, you'll probably see him and Amash there. And yes, you will see Marco Rubio in some race this cycle (I'm just not sure which one yet)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I do have one question. Rand Paul in KY-4 l. ITTL did he just decide not to run for the senate and go more in his dad's footsteps? Justin Amash not getting in 😢 at least give us Mike Lee and Marco Rubio. I'm ok with Bachaman losing (need less neocon and more noninterventionist is a good thing for congress)

The basic concept is that the GOP is more united following Coakley's victory, meaning fewer divisive primaries for them. Rand here, calculated he would have a better chance of beating Ben Chandler than winning a state-wide primary. Look for him to gain an early role in House Leadership (possibly President of the Freshman class). Lee didn't run because Bob Bennett's retirement removed any chance of him winning a GOP primary, and If this TL continues to 2012, you'll probably see him and Amash there. And yes, you will see Marco Rubio in some race this cycle (I'm just not sure which one yet)

That is an interesting look at it. A South Carolina Senate delegation of DeMint and Tim Scott, even if it happens in 2012, would look really sweet. Needless to say I like the timeline.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why is Chandler running in district 4 instead of 6? What happened to Geoff Davis? Are the numbers different?

[NewYorkExpress]

Why is Chandler running in district 4 instead of 6? What happened to Geoff Davis? Are the numbers different?

That is an oversight error. Thanks for catching it, it will be fixed.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ohio

As a classic swing state, both sides knew that Ohio likely would be decisive in determining the election night timeline. The question was, just how much would Republicans gain, and would Democrats be able to make any countering gains.

Governor
The still struggling Ohio economy looked like a Boulder tied to Wile E Coyote for Ted Strickland, though he gamely soldiered on. Despite rumors of Lee Fisher running for Senate, in-state Democrats were able to keep him aboard as Lieutenant Governor. Republicans had what could only barely be defined as a contested primary, and swept their way towards a lopsided victory in what the Toledo Blade claimed was "Ohio's strongest ticket since 1990".

Republicans

Former Senator Mike DeWine 71.2%
Former Congressman Bob McEwan 28.8%

General Election
Only 86 of 88 counties wound up voting for the GOP ticket, with only Cuyahoga (by 9,100 votes) and Erie County (by 1,075 votes) would fall in favor of Strickland.

Mike DeWine/John Kasich (R) 62.74%
Ted Strickland/Lee Fisher (D) 33.19%
Ken Matsez/??? (L) 2.98%
Dennis Spisak (G) 1.05%
Write-in/Other 0.04%

Senate

George Voinovich's retirement after was expected to cause busy primaries on both sides. However, Former Congressman, OMB Director and Trade Representative Rob Portman quickly entered and cleared the field. Meanwhile Democrats had a contested primary, which National leaders, like Dianne Feinstein knew the party did not need a key swing state.

Democrats

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner  35.83%
Cincinnati City Councilwoman Roxanne Qualls 20.14%
State Representative Nancy Garland 17.56%
State Representative Tyrone Yates 17.11%
Former State Senator Ray Espy 8.67%
Write-in/Other 0.29%

General Election

Like Kasich in the Gubernatorial Election, Portman swept the field, becoming the second Republican (After Voinovich) in the past three Ohio Senate races to carry all 88 counties, with Cuyahoga being the closest (Portman won by just 10, 670 votes there).



Rob Portman (R) 68.19%
Jennifer Brunner (D) 30.16%
Daniel LaBotz (Socialist) 1.01%
Eric Deaton (C) 0.55%
Write-in/Other 0.09%

As expected many of Ohio's Congressional Districts were targeted by one side or the other heading into election day, setting up a battle royale truly befitting a swing state.

1st Congressional District

Republicans

Former Cincinnati City Councilman Phil Heimlich 50.55%
Former Congressman Steve Chabot 49.45%

General Election

Phil Heimlich (R) 54.3%
Steve Driehaus (D) 43.6%
Jim Berns (L) 1.05%
Richard Stevenson (Natural Law) 1.02%
Write-in/Other 0.03%

3rd Congressional District
Democrats thought they could grab the seat and at first things seemed to be going their way, as the incumbent Mike Turner, chose to run for Secretary of State (which he won), unfortunately, Republicans found another strong candidate to replace him, in Hillsboro City Councilman Richard Donley. Democrats, meanwhile, wound up with 2002 nominee (and former Tony Hall chief of staff) Rick Carne, who did a little better than 2002, but that was mostly because the GOP's eyes were elsewhere.

General Election

Richard Donley (R) 57.2%
Rick Carne (D) 42.8%

6th Congressional District
General Election

Bill Johnson (R) 54.87%
Charlie Wilson (D) 44.66%
Martin Elass (L) 0.39%
Richard Cadle (C) 0.08%

10th Congressional District

Many Democrats, especially in Ohio, had enough of Dennis Kucinich, and most wanted to take him out before redistricting. Only one took on the task in former State Representative Shirley Smith, and after a back-and forth primary she defeated the two-time Presidential candidate. Despite some Republicans thinking they could pick up the seat, cooler heads prevailed and no candidate was run.

Democrats

Shirley Smith 50.76%
Dennis Kucinich 49.24%

12th Congressional Districts
Despite Democrats falling all around him, Pat Tiberi couldn't feel secure in a district that gave 54% of votes to President Obama. Democrats nominated Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks and came amazingly close. However the GOP wave and insane margins being put up atop the ballot saved Tiberi.

General Election

Pat Tiberi (R) 49.19%
Paula Brooks (D) 48.86%
Travis Ganley (L) 1.05%

15th Congressional District

Despite Steve Stivers passing on a rematch with Mary Jo Kilroy, the freshman had good reason to be nervous as former Congresswoman Deborah Pryce decided she wanted back in, and despite mild grumbling on the right, quickly became the GOP nominee. The race was every bit as nasty as their last race against each other in 2006, but this time Kilroy held the lead until getting caught calling Pryce a "raving, screaming harpie" at a fundraiser in Grove City. Needless to say, Pryce took the lead, and won comfortably .

General Election

Deborah Pryce (R) 55.7%
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 42.8%
David Rayon (C) 1.5%

16th Congressional District

General Election

Jim Renacci (R) 53%
John Boccieri (D) 45.1%
Jeffery Blevins (L) 1.9%

18th Congressional District

Bob Gibbs (R) 59.2%
Zack Space (D) 40.2%
Lindsey Sutton (L) 0.6%

[NewYorkExpress]

Connecticut

While most of the Nutmeg State politically was tied to the New York City suburbs, Republicans felt confident in at least making some political headway here, especially with things seemingly falling to pieces elsewhere for the Democrats.

Governor

Like Bill Owens in Colorado, Jodi Rell entered the run-up to 2010 relatively unpopular, but nowhere near as bad a shape as neighbors David Paterson or Donal Caiceri. After some delay, she announced she would in fact run again on  December 3,2009 during a pregame speech at the XL Center (before the UConn Huskies Women's team faced the Hartford Hawks). She would however, have a new running mate as Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele was nominated as ambassador to The Holy See on April 16, 2009, to replace Mary Ann Glendon. Fedele survived attempts to block the nomination from Al Franken, John Cornyn and Jeff Bingaman, and was confirmed 64-36 (With McCain, Hatch, Bond and Vitter voting with the pro-appointment bloc). Democrats had a contested primary, but they and to some extent Rell, were overshadowed by the independent campaign of Joe Lieberman, who was well aware that he was a sitting duck in 2012 and was trying to get out of that scenario. 

Democrats

Susan Bysiewicz 29.34%
State Senator Gary LeBeau 21.29%
Businessman Ned Lamont 20.67%
Former State Representative Juan Figueroa 15.7%
Former Congresswoman Barbara Kennelly 13%

General Election

Most experts expected a race similar to the one in Maine, with three strong candidates fighting for the seat. Unfortunately for both Rell and Lieberman, the electorate of 2010 turned out a bare majority of Democrats which Bysiewicz swept up easily. Meanwhile, Republicans were split on the two moderates, leading to a big victory for Democrats.


Susan Bysiewicz/Art Feltman (D) 39.67%
Joe Lieberman/Maggie Wilderotter (I/Connecticut for Lieberman) 38.11%
Jodi Rell/Craig Miner (R) 22.22%

Senate

Pretty much everyone in Connecticut was pissed off at Chris Dodd, for living in Iowa for a campaign that had no chance (especially with Obama and Clinton running) and scandals involving the bank bailouts and a bribery scandal involving Countrywide Financial, and most agreed he would lose, it was just a question of whether it would be the primary or the general election. After Dodd's August 2009 announcement that he would run again, Democrats despite begging from the National Party declined to challenge him. Linda McMahon, who had also been exploring a run on the GOP side, also backed out citing pressure from WWE fans (McMahon had been the business manager of the WWE). This left only one candidate running, State Representative Debra Lee Hovey, who quickly took a sizable lead (and dissuaded any other primary opponents from appearing). Hovey never would look back.

General Election

Debra Lee Hovey (R) 56.1%
Chris Dodd (D) 43.7%
Warren Mosler (I) 0.18%
Write-in/Other 0.2%

4th Congressional District

While Jim Himes started off in very good shape, State Senator Dan Debicella ran a very strong campaign, and ultimately took down the freshman.


Dan Debicella (R) 51.83%
Jim Himes (D) 48.14%
Write-in/Other 0.03%

5th Congressional District

Chris Murphy was in better shape than Himes, but that wasn't saying much at this point, especially with State Senator Sam Caliguri running a solid campaign.


Chris Murphy (D) 49.87%
Sam Caliguri (R) 49.71%
Write-in/Other 0.42%

[NewYorkExpress]

Idaho

Idaho was one of John McCain's best states, and no one held high hopes for any Democrat here.

Governor

Governor Butch Otter was the rare Governor who was very popular with his constituents, and as such was not expected to face much opposition in his bid for a second term. He faced no primary opposition (his two opponents, Sharon Ullman and Rex Rammell filed for Secretary of State and State Senate respectively). Democrats had a contested primary, but given their status in the state it was looking like a doomed effort.

Democrats

Former State Representative Ken Robison 42%
Businessman Keith Allred 30.1%
Former Ambassador to Belgium Alan Blinken 27.6%
Write-in/Other 0.3%

General Election

Needless to say it was a rout for Otter. Former State Representative Jana Kemp also raised eyebrows, draining votes almost exclusively from Robison.


Butch Otter (R) 60.34%
Ken Robison (D) 29.15%
Jana Kemp (I) 10.24%
Ted Dunlap (L) 0. 19%
Write-in/Other 0.02%

Senate

Mike Crapo had to think he was sitting pretty (pun not intended), as he was running for re-election in a very red state in a Republican wave. His opponent in the general election, Walt Minnick, was well aware that he would not survive re-election to his Congressional seat in the climate he was in. He also realized he probably wouldn't win the Senate race either, though that didn't stop him from putting in a game effort.

General Election

Mike Crapo (R) 64.78%
Walt Minnick (D) 31.29%
Randy Bergquist (C) 3.63%
William Bryk (I) 0.3%

1st Congressional District

With Minnick running for the Senate, Republicans were the overwhelming favorites to pick 2006 nominee Larry Grant, who was praying to catch lightning in a bottle like Minnick did in 2008 (and Grant himself nearly did in 2006) but in the midst of a GOP wave, that was at best unlikely.

Republicans

State Representative Ken Roberts 36.9%
State Representative Raul Labrador 36.58%
Former Congressman Bill Sali 26.25%
Write-in/Other 0.27%

General Election

Ken Roberts (R) 59.89%
Larry Grant (D) 39.11%
Bradley Keene (I) 1%

[NewYorkExpress]

Oklahoma

One of the most conservative places in the nation (and winner of a very flawed November 2009 article for the Atlantic by Clive Crook of Most Conservative State/Province in North/Central America, with Wyoming, Texas and Utah at #2, 5 and 3 respectively with Nicaragua Managua Department rounding out the top five, in spot #4). Republicans were certain they could add more to the near-stranglehold on state politics they earned in 2008.

Governor

In many ways, Oklahoma Republicans had to be thankful that Brad Henry was term-limited, as he provided a pickup opportunity that they would not have had otherwise, leaving office popular. Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins solved a problem for Democrats by announcing that she would run for re-election (She narrowly lost to Todd Lamb in November 2010), leaving the field open for Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Republicans had a contested race, with several strong candidates, which was only fitting in a very conservative state.

Republicans

Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin 32.94%
Former Congressman J.C Watts 32.16%
Former Senator Don Nickles 31.44%
Businessman Randy Hubbard 3.43%
Write-in/Other.0.03%

Runoff-Republicans

Mary Fallin (endorsed by Hubbard and Nickles) 50.34%
JC Watts 49.66%

General Election

After a wild primary (Fallin, Watts and Nickles all held the lead through the night, and all three held at least a share of the lead at some point during the two-week long recount), the general election was surprisingly normal, with Fallin winning big.


Mary Fallin (R) 64.22%
Drew Edmondson (D) 35.78

Senate

Tom Coburn was nursing two thing, his health (He had been diagnosed with Melanoma over the summer of 2009) and his Presidential ambitions (telling Stephen Hayes (who was guest hosting for Glenn Beck) that "health willing, I want to run in 2012". Unfortunately his prospects for that didn't look good, as Coburn announced he would retire in October 2009 saying that "Chemotherapy takes a lot out of you... I'll have a clean bill of health by August 2010". Both sides ran a single candidate. For the Republicans, it was Congressman John Sullivan. For Democrats, it was popular Governor Brad Henry.

General Election

Despite Henry outraising and outworking Sullivan, the climate was just too pro-GOP to give the popular Governor a victory.


John Sullivan (R) 53.62%
Brad Henry (D) 44.76%
Ronald Dwyer (I) 1.62%

2nd Congressional District

Dan Boren could see the writing on the wall, and decided to run for Attorney General (he lost to Scott Pruitt in November). This left the seat open for a Republican takeover, at least in theory. The GOP nominated Durant City Councilman Stewart Hoffman, while Democrats had a surprisingly contested primary.

Democrats

Former Congressman Brad Carson 53.5%
Former Attorney General Susan Loving 46.5%

General Election

Like in the Senate Race, Carson outraised his opponent, but simply could not overcome the GOP climate.


Stewart Hoffman (R) 56.03%
Brad Carson (D) 43.97%

[NewYorkExpress]

Wisconsin

Democrats had an edge in voter Registration, and had helped President Obama to almost fourteen point win in 2008. Republicans had momentum, both in-state and Nationally and enthusiasm (though Democrats appeared to have that as well). All signs were pointing towards the Badger State being a 2010 battleground.

Governor

Jim Doyle's August announcement that he would retire after 33 years in service to Wisconsin, set up potentially explosive primaries on both sides. Doyle (who would take a position as a legal expert for ABC News starting on December 27, 2010-before he left office), remained neutral in the Democratic Primary, as did Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold (who was too busy with own race anyways). Meanwhile, the Republicans had a busy, if not especially loud primary.

Democrats

Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton 39.77%
State Assemblyman Spencer Black 30.14%
Former State Senator Mark Meyer 24.15%
Madison Common Councilman Joe Clausius 5.89%
Write-in/Other 0.05%

Republicans

Former Congressman Mark Neumann 43.82%
Former Congressman Steve Gunderson 26.12%
Former Congressman Mark Green 25.19%
Green Bay Mayor Paul Jadin 4.65%
Write-in/Other 0.22%

General Election

While Lawton had a high profile as Lieutenant Governor, her general election campaign never really got off the ground, while Neumann's showed as much air as a Brett Farve pass, leading to an easy GOP victory.


Mark Neumann/Scott Walker (R) 58.29%
Barbara Lawton/David Travis (D) 38.62%
Terry Virgil (L) 2.05%
Write-in/Other 0.04%

Senate

Democrats knew that Russ Feingold's habit of refusing outside donations would come back to bite him someday, and this looked like that someday. Republicans did have a contested primary, but like many of the "contested" races, it really wasn't one at all.

Republicans

Congressman Paul Ryan 77.13%
Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall 14.74%
Plumber Stephen Finn 8.13%

General Election

Paul Ryan was one of the brightest GOP stars, and many already thought he was Presidential timber, and he took another step on that path by routing Russ Feingold in an outcome most Democrats (except Feingold) saw coming.


Paul Ryan (R) 58.17%
Russ Feingold (D) 40.48%
Rob Taylor (C) 1.27%
Write-in/Other 0.08%

3rd Congressional District

Republicans targeted Ron Kind, who they saw as out of step with their district. Unfortunately for them, their nominee, State Senator Dan Kapanke, was a basket case for both local and national Republicans. Still, it looked for a while as if Kapanke would emerge victorious, only to find the race tightening dramatically as election day approached. It would take a long recount (eleven days) to determine the winner.

General Election

Ron Kind (D) 49.38%
Dan Kapanke (R) 49.07%
Michael Krsiean (I) 0.87%
Write-in/Other 0.68%

7th Congressional District

Dave Obey's retirement was a surprise to his colleagues in Congress (though not to political analysts), and left an opportunity for a Republican pickup. Republicans nominated Rice Lake City Councilman Dan Lawler, while Democrats nominated State Senator Julie Lassa. This was another close race, but ultimately the sour climate for Democrats (and a late endorsement from Paul Ryan for Lawler) pulled the Republican through.

General Election

David Lawler (R) 49.86%
Julie Lassa (D) 47.21%
Gary Kauther (I) 2.71%
Write-in/Other 0.22%

8th Congressional District

Steve Kagen was in a difficult position in a GOP friendly district, but he knew that if Republicans nominated the right candidate he could still win. Unfortunately for him State Representative Samantha Kerkman, really wasn't that candidate, as she took a wide lead early and never looked back.

General Election

Samantha Kerkman (R) 56.97%
Steve Kagen (D) 42.69%
Write-in/Other 0.44%

[NewYorkExpress]

Oregon

Despite the political world seemingly falling to pieces, Democrats felt Oregon (and the rest of the West Coast) was their firewall. They had good reason to, as President Obama had won the Beaver State by 16.4% in 2008 (and flattened Hillary Clinton in the Primary). Republicans, still strong in the rural sections of the state, were counting on their strength in the intermountain west spilling across the Cascades.

Governor

With Ted Kulongoski term-limited, an opportunity for Republicans arose in the GOP friendly climate, that they likely wouldn't have had otherwise (and wouldn't have in most other Oregon races). Former Senator Gordon Smith jumped in, but he couldn't completely clear the field. Democrats meanwhile, waited on a decision from former Governor John Kitzhaber, who on September 19, 2009 announced he would not run again. (President Obama would tap Kitzhaber to be the co-director of the to-be launched Healthcare.gov website in November 2010) This meant Democrats would have a wide-open primary.

Republicans


Former Senator Gordon Smith 68.32%
Former State Representative John Lim 15.91%
Former Ted Kulongoski Deputy Chief of Staff Allen Alley 10.67%
Business Executive Clark Colvin 5.03%
William Ames Curtright 0.07%

Democrats


State Representative Deborah Boone 40.01%
Former Governor Neil Goldschmidt 37.34%
Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury 20.11%
Photographer Richard Esterman 2.54%

General Election

Gordon Smith probably didn't think he'd actually make it back to elected office, just two years after losing his Senate seat to Jeff Merkley. Despite the state's political climate shifting away from his point of view, he was facing a underfunded candidate (Both Goldschmidt and Bradbury had out raised Boone), and a GOP wave, that did seem to be crossing the Cascades (at least in Oregon). At the same time, Smith was a fresh candidate, having romped in his primary, while Boone had pulled off an upset (and struggled to do so). It looked Smith would have a very quick redemption.



Gordon Smith (R) 52.76%
Deborah Boone (D) 44.18%
Greg Kord (C) 2.19%
Wes Wagner (L) 0.67%
Write-in/Other 0.2%

Senate

Most thought Ron Wyden was lock, GOP wave or not, and that feeling was confirmed when the Republicans best two candidates, Greg Walden and Gordon Smith chose to run for re-election and Governor respectively. Republicans nominated former State Representative Karen Minnis to face Wyden, and while the race looked like it might be close early, Wyden, pulled away.

General Election



Ron Wyden (D) 52.63%
Karen Minnis (R) 37.2%
Jim Huffman (I) 6.91%
Rick Staggenborg (Progressive) 3.18%
Write-in/Other 0.08%

1st Congressional District

Rumors swirling about David Wu's unusual behavior involving painkillers, tiger costumes, staffers and other debaucherous acts. While nothing had been proven, Democrats (especially Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer) wanted Wu out, and with him running for re-election they blatantly encouraged primary challengers to step up, though only one, State Representative Tobias Read stepped up. Republicans, meanwhile nominated State Representative Cliff Bentz, and prayed for Wu's renomination.

Democrats


Tobias Read 50.31%
David Wu 49.69%

General Election

Wu's primary loss was the end of the GOP's chance at taking the seat, though Bentz made a great effort at comparing Read to Wu.



Tobias Read (D) 55.2%
Cliff Bentz (R) 39.75%
Don LaMunyon (L) 3.11%
Chris Henry (G) 2.04%

[NewYorkExpress]

Maryland

Democrats had been in the ascendent, and now dominant, since the days of Spiro Agnew, and there was no reason to believe that trend was ending yet.

Governor

Martin O'Malley was already a heavy favorite for re-election, and became something of a near-lock when his toughest possible opponent, former Governor Bob Ehrlich chose to pass on the race. The resulting Republican field was fragmented, and short on recognizable names.

Republicans


Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan 18.41%
Former Frostburg Mayor/State Senator John Bambacus 18.02%
Westernport Water Commissioner Tom Martin 15.99%
Sudlersville Town Commissioner Kevin Kerr 13%
Former Public Service Commissioner Kenneth Schisler 12.1%
Harve De Grace City Councilman Stephen Gamatoria 11.64%
Perryville Town Commissioner Alan Fox 10.84%

Meehan waited until after the nomination was in hand to pick has running-mate (which was just as well, as he'd been behind in every poll until just before the primary), and he ultimately picked his previous rival in Kenneth Schisler. Still the Democrats simply could not be stopped...at least not in this race.

General Election

Martin O'Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 77.13%
Rick Meehan/Kenneth Schisler (R) 20.47%
Maria Allwine/Ken Eidel 2.14%
Write-in/Other 0.26%

Senate

Barbara Mikulski, much like O'Malley was expected to be extremely safe. However she did draw a significant challenge from Former Governor Robert Ehrlich, who announced his candidacy in July of 2009 and forced Mikulski to abandon plans to move up in the Democratic Senate Caucus (She knew full well that Harry Reid was in big trouble). The battle, augmented by the Republican wave remained close (or relatively so) for the entire campaign, but Ehrlich, who used the neighboring Senate race in Delaware as a comparison had a problem. In Delaware, Mike Castle wasn't facing an incumbent, while Ehrlich was, and the incumbent was modestly popular. Ultimately, while Republicans came close, the state's pronounced Democratic lean saved Mikulski.   

General Election


Barbara Mikulski (D) 50.45%
Bob Ehrlich (R) 47.14%
Richard Shawver (C) 2.21%
Write-in/Other (G) 0.2%

1st Congressional District

Congressman Frank Kratovil was likely to have major problems in what was easily the most Conservative district in the state. Andrew Harris, started the race, only to exit on November 20, 2009 and instead ran for Baltimore County Executive (he lost by sixteen points). Almost a month later Crisfield City Councilman Erik Emelly entered the race, and he would win the nomination without opposition. While Emely was very unseasoned, the GOP wave overruled that, downing Kratovil.

General Election


Erik Emely (R) 48.66%
Frank Kratovil (D) 45.69%
Richard J Davis (L) 4.98%
Write-in/Other 0.67%

[NewYorkExpress]

Texas

Once part of the Democrats "Solid South", The Longhorn State was now the largest regular Republican prize in any election. Still, there were many experts who believed that Republicans had hit their ceiling here.

Governor

Rick Perry was the most unpopular Texas Governor since Dolph Briscoe ahead of his primary defeat in 1979, and was locked in a war of words with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who many thought would run against him in the GOP primary. However, under pressure from GOP leaders (especially John Cornyn, who was chairing the NRSC) Hutchison announced on September 13, 2009, that she would not run, citing a need for Republicans to keep every Senate seat they had, especially after Al Franken's seating in Minnesota, and Democrats leading early on in Massachusetts's Senate special. This did not leave Perry out of the political woods, and in fact left in him bigger trouble than before. Democrats also had a primary, but only political junkies were paying attention to it.

Democrats

Former El Paso Mayor Raymond Caballero 50.61%
Former Houston Mayor Bill White 30.37%
Former Austin Mayor Gustavo Garcia 19.02%

Republicans

Incumbent Rick Perry 37.87%
Former US Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings 36.79%
Activist Debra Medina 19.02%
Economist/Scholar Wendy Lee Gramm 11%
Stratford City Councilman James Lutes 8.01%
Tioga City Councilwoman Sherry May 6.33%

Republicans-Runoff

Margaret Spellings 51.19% (Endorsed by Gramm, Lutes and May)
Rick Perry 48.81% (endorsed by Medina)

General Election

Perry was one of one of a few incumbents to lose a primary, and one of even fewer Republican incumbents to lose a primary, but he sucked it up and quickly endorsed Spellings. Caballero didn't have to face a runoff, but he was facing one the few George Bush appointments that was popular anywhere, let alone Texas, in Spellings, plus he was underfunded, having made it through the primary on essentially nothing. Bill White, though he endorsed Caballero, didn't help things by telling Joe Scarborough in Mid-July that "we'd be winning this seat if I was the nominee".


Margaret Spellings (R) 58.63%
Raymond Caballero (D) 32.59%
Kathie Glass (L) 6.03%
Deb Shaff (G) 2.29%
Write-in/Other 0.46%

4th Congressional District

Party leaders on both sides managed to persuade Ralph Hall, the oldest member of the House that it was time to retire after an incident where he apparently ordered plumbers to a Republican Study Committee meeting when he was reading a phone book (and had was trying to call for) Pizza, a incident which became a legend on the House floor for several months, and highlighted Hall's age (he would have been 87 on inauguration day). While National Democrats didn't see the seat as an opportunity, state Democrats did, and they nominated former Congressman Martin Frost. Republicans had a competitive primary, but they were expected to easily hold the seat.

Republicans

Denison Mayor Jared Johnson 50.89%
Linden Alderwoman Sue Lazara 26.61%
Texarkana City Councilman Tina Veal-Gooch 14.34%
Paris City Councilman Richard Grossnickle 9.16%

General Election


Jared Johnson (R) 60.97%
Martin Frost (D) 36.72%
Jim Prindle (L) 2.31%

14th Congressional District

Ron Paul decided he would not run for re-election, instead focusing his energies on seeing has son Rand get elected in KY-6 (he did) and preparing for a third Presidential run (and second as a Republican). Republicans nominated State Representative Dennis Bonnen, while Democrats had a contested primary. Most pundits expected Bonnen to emerged victorious, and that feeling deepened as a pro-Republican mood swept over the rest of the country.

Democrats

Former Congressman Nick Lampson 83.26%
Jeff Cherry 23.12%

General Election

Dennis Bonnen (R) 57.35%
Nick Lampson (D) 42.65%

17th Congressional District

Like Jim Matheson, Chet Edwards had crafted a reputation as a survivor in GOP country (to the point where he wound up on President Obama's VP shortlist), but, like Matheson, this wave would end that. Republicans nominated State Representative Lois Kolkhorst, and she won by a wide margin.

General Election

Lois Kolkhorst (R) 60.91%
Chet Edwards (D) 39.09%

23rd Congressional District

Ciro Rodriguez didn't look to be in trouble as the 2010 race dawned, and his position looked better when his former Congressman Quico Canseco decided not to run. Republicans instead nominated former CIA officer Will Hurd, and despite a slow start, Hurd quickly caught and passed Canseco, going on to make history as the first African American Republican elected from Texas.

General Election

Will Hurd (R) 52.79%
Ciro Rodriguez (D) 46.17%
Martin Nitschke (L) 0.56%
Ed Scharf (G) 0.48%

27th Congressional District

Solomon Ortiz faced his toughest challenge in years, as squared off with Comptroller Susan Combs. While Ortiz did try to hammer Combs for carpetbagging (she lived in Austin, a sizable distance from the district), it didn't an have effect as her statewide profile, and large war chest (not to mention the GOP wave) steamrolled Ortiz.

General Election

Susan Combs (R) 50.76%
Solomon Ortiz (D) 48.92%
Write-in/Other 0.42%

[NewYorkExpress]

New Mexico

The land of Enchantment had been swinging towards Democrats for quite some time, but with a the GOP wave in full view, Republicans were enchanted by their prospects.

Governor

Bill Richardson exited office unpopular, mainly thanks to allegations of a pay-for-play scheme that cost him chance to be Commerce Secretary (a role which would go to Gary Locke), and though the Justice Department declined to indict him (due to lack of evidence), it weighed on the race, and on Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, who faced accusations of complicity (despite not being implicated at all by the DOJ), and when she did announce she was running, faced a rough primary. Republicans, also had a competitive primary, and were narrow favorites (and led Denish by much more).

Republicans


Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson 44.62%
State Representative Janice Arnold Jones 35.49%
University of The Southwest VP for Financial Services/CFO Ronald McBee 14.17%
Former State GOP Chairman Allen Weh 5.72%

Democrats

Former Secretary, New Mexico Department of Health Michelle Lujan Grisham 41.54%
Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish 38.51%
Santa Fe City Councilwoman Rebecca Wurzburger 19.95%

General Election

Denish's defeat probably kept Democrats in the game, but most National Democrats knew it was going to be hard to hold the seat, especially against a well-funded opponent like Wilson. While Lujan Grisham ran a solid campaign, it just wasn't enough.


Heather Wilson/John Sanchez (R) 52.22
Michelle Lujan Grisham/Cisco McSorley (D) 47.09%
Write-in/Other 0.69%

1st Congressional District

Martin Heinrich was in a swing district with a rising GOP wave, so he had very good reason to be nervous. Republicans nominated State Representative Bill Rehm without much argument at all, and the two traded blows, and the lead back and forth the entire way.

General Election


Bill Rehm (R) 50.12%
Martin Heinrich (D) 49.88%

2nd Congressional District

Harry Teague was in even worse shape than Heinrich as his district generally supported Republicans. Making matter worse, former Congressman Steve Pearce decided he wanted his seat back, and had no opposition in the primary. Teague never really stood a chance, and the DCCC ultimately pulled their support in Mid-September 2010.

General Election


Steve Pearce (R) 59.67%
Harry Teague (D) 40.33%

3rd Congressional District

While the Third District is quite Liberal, Ben Ray Lujan faced a surprisingly stiff challenge from New Mexico Public Lands Commissioner Patrick Lyons. Ultimately, Lujan was able to shake off his challenger after Labor and win with a reduced margin.

General Election


Ben Ray Lujan (D) 53.71%
Patrick Lyons (R) 46.29%

[NewYorkExpress]

Washington

Like it's neighbor to the south, Washington had quickly moved towards the Democrats over the past twenty years. However, again like Oregon, the GOP wasn't quite dead yet, and with a National wave building, they had a chance to make some noise.

Senate

The conventional wisdom was that Patty Murray was safe, and she was the only Democrat running in the blanket primary. Republicans had several candidates running, and the primary worked as a semi-official Republican Primary. By the time it had occurred though, Murray was in trouble as the Rightward swept onwards.

Blanket Primary

Incumbent Patty Murray (D) 40.61%
Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) 15.45%
Former Congressman Rod Chandler (R) 11.18%
Former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) 9.64%
Businessman Charles Akers (R) 7.81%
Former NFL Wide Receiver Ronnie Harris (R) 6.39%
Former NFL Tight End Clint Didier (R) 5.21%
Retired NBA Power Forward Russ Schoene (R) 5.01%
Will Baker (Reform) 3.76%
Norma Gruber (R) 0.09%

General Election

Murray and McKenna got locked into a nasty ad war, and both were able to raise sizable sums. Unfortunately, McKenna was probably the only Republican able to statewide, and the race was locked into a stalemate. McKenna was ultimately, however able to emerge victorious, significantly reducing Murray's margins in Pierce and King Counties, fighting Murray to a draw in Snohomish County and taking most of the remainder of Western Washington (With the exceptions of Thurston and Kitsap County, both of which voted for Murray by wide margins), and winning almost all of Eastern Washington with ease (with exception of Whitman and Kittitas, both of which he won by reduced margins).

General Election

Rob McKenna (R) 50.51%
Patty Murray (D) 49.49%

3rd Congressional District

Brian Baird's retirement left Republicans in good position to profit here. State Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler and State Representative Dennis Heck, were amazingly enough the only candidates running, and while both ran great campaigns, the elections dynamics favored Herrera Beutler, and another seat was added to GOP tally.

General Election

Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 52.61%
Dennis Heck (D) 47.39%

8th Congressional District

With Rob McKenna's entry into the Senate race Dave Reichert had to battle rumors that he would run for Attorney General in 2012. On top of that, he represented a 56% Obama district, and both State and National Democrats targeted him seeing a rare pickup. Businesswoman Susan DelBene entered early, but dropped out in favor of State Representative Sharon Tomiko-Santos (and won the seat Tomiko-Santos was vacating), and the race ended up being closer than many expected. Tomiko-Santos surprised everyone by upsetting Reichert, for one of only a few Democratic gains in Congress.

General Election

Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) 51.05%
Dave Reichert (R) 48.95%

[NewYorkExpress]

Pennsylvania

While the Keystone State was still a battleground, it was now electing Democrats at a semi-consistent clip. Still Republicans were expected to do well here, and expectations skyrocketed in advance of the election, as Republicans gained strength both in the state and nationally.

Governor

While Ed Rendell didn't exit office unpopular, Republicans saw the rising wave, and the state's tradition of changing parties in power after two terms as a big opportunity. Both sides had fiercely contested primaries, and both sides had star power among their candidates.

Democrats

Philadelphia City Councilman James Kenney 39.11%
Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel 35.09%
State Senator Jim Ferlo 17.86%
State Representative H. Scott Conklin 8.04%

Republicans

Former Senator Rick Santorum 39.56%
Attorney General Tom Corbett 38.16%
State Representative Sam Rohrer 7.87%
Write-in/Others 0.07%

General Election

While Santorum was a badly flawed nominee, and National Democrats were able get lots money in for Kenney, the GOP wave was able to elect Santorum, who appeared to have chosen this over a run for President in 2012, to the Pennsylvania Statehouse.



Rick Santorum/Bruce Castor (R) 51.65%
James Kenney/Dan Onorato (D) 48.65%

Senate

Arlen Specter faced challenges on all sides, and ultimately decided to retire and switch parties, making both announcements on April 28, 2009. Republicans nominated former Congressman Pat Toomey without any struggle, while Democrats saw a primary showdown develop.

Democrats

Lieutenant Governor Joseph Scarnati 40.21%
Auditor Jack Wagner 38.90%
State Representative Rosita Youngblood 20.89%

General Election

While Scarnati ran a strong campaign, Toomey ran a better one, and behind the GOP wave, the Republicans were able to regain the seat.

Pat Toomey (R) 51.01%
Joseph Scarnati (D) 48.99%

3rd Congressional District

Kathy Dahlkemper was facing a tossup race, and decided to bail after a single term to become a "brand executive/spokeswoman" for Stella Artois and Budweiser. Republicans nominated businessman Mike Kelly, while Democrats nominated Erie Mayor Joseph Sinnott. Kelly added another seat to the GOP column with ease.

General Election

Mike Kelly (R) 58.74%
Joseph Sinnott (D) 41.26

4th Congressional District

Jason Altmire faced big problems retaining his seat, and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart decided now was a good time for a rubber match, and she led from the outset. While Altmire was able to catch up, the seat ultimately was too close to call on election night, and was called for Hart by 3 PM the next day.

General Election

Melissa Hart (R) 50.18%
Jason Altmire (D) 49.82%

8th Congressional District

Patrick Murphy faced a rematch with former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, and unlike their 2006 race, Fitzpatrick had a huge edge.

General Election

Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 52.76%
Patrick Murphy (D) 47.24%

10th Congressional District

Chris Carney was amongst the many Democrats who started as underdogs, and he faced a quality opponent in US Attorney Tom Marino. Another seat fell to the GOP.

General Election

Tom Marino (R) 54.81%
Chris Carney (D) 45.19%

11th Congressional District

Like many other Pennsylvania Democrats, Paul Kanjorski was in big trouble in 2010. While he dodged a primary challenge, he faced a stiff opponent in Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. This race turned into a rout as Barletta hammered Kanjorski on immigration to no end.

General Election

Lou Barletta (R) 57.15%
Paul Kanjorski (D) 42.85

12th Congressional District

John Murtha's death put an unhelpful wrench for everyone in the district. While Mark Critz defeated Tim Burns in the May 18, 2010 special election, Burns did not run in the general, with Republicans instead turning to Washington County District Attorney Steven Toprani. Toprani ran a strong campaign, and added another seat to the GOP column.

General Election

Steven Toprani (R) 52.62%
Mark Critz (D) 47.38%

16th Congressional District

Like almost all the Blue Dogs, Tim Holden was in a tight spot, and he faced a real challenger in State Senator Dave Argall. While it was a tight battle all the way, Argall was able to add another seat to the GOP column at the end of the day.

General Election

Dave Argall (R) 50.89%
Tim Holden (D) 49.11%

[NewYorkExpress]

Illinois

Democrats reached the apex of their strength in President Obama's current home state, but that position was threatened by a series of in-state scandals.

Governor

Rod Blagojevich had every intention of running for a third term, but instead he became sixth Governor of Illinois to be tried (and ultimately convicted) since 1920, this time on a multi-headed corruption charges headlined by the sale of the Senate seat President Obama, and he was removed from office in January 2009. While Pat Quinn was elevated to the Governor's mansion, many voters thought he was also involved, despite six years of arguments with Blagojevich to the controversy (This was stoked by Fox News personalities Mallory Factor, Byron York and Jonah Goldberg, with all three insisting Quinn should resign, and Factor also suggested that President Obama should resign as well, despite the only major links being the Senate seat, and Tony Rezko, and also despite US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald (who was responsible for the case) repeatedly stating that Obama was not involved). Quinn was persuaded by State and National leaders to stand down, and after brief consideration of a Congressional run, did not run for any seat, leading to a busy primary for Democrats. Republicans also had a contested primary, but without Quinn (or Blagojevich) there was an energy missing.

Democrats

Comptroller Daniel Hynes 37.36%
Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 32.29%
Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale 20.17%
Chicago Alderman Daniel Solis 10.27%

Republicans

Former Senator Peter Fitzgerald 36.44%
Former Attorney General Jim Ryan 21.19%
State Senator Bill Brady 16.08%
State Senator Kirk Dillard 14.17%
State Representative William Black 12.12%

General Election

Democrats had a fresh headache after the primaries, after their Lieutenant Governor nominee,Scott Lee Cohen's past came to light (lots of steroids, exes, and kinky behavior). While the Democrats quickly replaced Cohen, the chaos was enough to seal  a Fitzgerald victory.


Peter Fitzgerald/Bob Schillerstrom (R) 48.31%
Daniel Hynes/Toni Preckwinkle (D) 46.07%
Rich Whitney/?? (G) 4.21%
Lex Green/?? (L) 1.37%
Write-in/Other 0.04%

Senate

The Blagojevich scandal had tentacles extend here, as the soon-to-be convicted Governor did make an appointment, in Roland Burris. Burris was quickly talked into not running, and would soon become a cooperating witness in Blagojevich's Federal RICO trial, and face a Senate ethics investigation. While there originally was a special election to fill the gap between Election Day and Inauguration Day 2011, but on May 16, 2011 District Court Judge Frederick Kapala, struck down the requirement for a Special election, and ruled Burris would serve until inauguration day. Democrats had a contested primary, while Republicans had a competitive race between high-wattage politicians.

Democrats

Former Carbondale Mayor Sheila Simon 36.4%
Former State Representative Robin Kelly 21.25%
President, Chicago Urban League Cheryle Robinson Jackson 13%
Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman 12.28%
Disability Rights Activist Marca Bristo 11.07%

Republicans

Former Congressman Dennis Hastert 58.17%
Former Congressman Jerry Weller 41.83%

General Election

It was a famous name (Sheila Simon was the daughter of former Senator Paul Simon, who had died in 2003) against a famous, if low-key persona (Dennis Hastert was Speaker of the House from 1999 to 2007, directly preceding the current speaker (Nancy Pelosi)). While the GOP wave kept Hastert in the race, he didn't have the "fire in the belly" at age 69 (His primary opponent, Weller was only 54) to win a tough General Election, and Simon kept Democrats together in any case.


Sheila Simon (D) 51.64%
Dennis Hastert (R) 47.03%
LeAlan Jones (G) 1.06%
Michael Labno (L) 0.24%
Write-in/Other 0.03%

8th Congressional District

Melissa Bean started out in decent shape, and further enhanced her position in the swing district by calling for Governor Pat Quinn to resign (after he'd already stated he wasn't running, claiming that was "the easy way out"), but she faced a tough opponent in Long Grove Mayor Maria Rodriguez. Still Bean was the favorite most of the way, and earned a tough hold.

General Election

Melissa Bean (D) 50.14%
Maria Rodriguez (R) 48.06%
Bill Schurer (G) 1.8%

10th Congressional District

Mark Kirk, like Mike Castle in Delaware thought his career was at a crossroads, and he weighed both Gubernatorial and Senatorial bids for months before deciding in June 2009 to run for re-election. Democrats had a contested primary, and were needless to say favorites to take the seat.

Democrats

Former State Representative Kathleen Ryg 38.39%
State Representative Elaine Nekritz 36.07%
Cook County Commissioner Lawrence Suffredin 26.56%

General Election

Ryg did just enough to give Democrats another pickup, though it was quickly becoming clear that Congress was gone.

Kathy Ryg (D) 50.62%
Mark Kirk (R) 49.38%

11th Congressional District

Debbie Halvorson was locked in tight struggle with Air National Guard Pilot Adam Kinzinger for most of 2009 and 2010, but as the climate improved for Republicans, so to did Kizinger's lead.

General Election



Adam Kinzinger (R) 54.05%
Debbie Halvorson (D) 45.95%

14th Congressional District

Bill Foster was considered vulnerable for many reasons in 2010, and the GOP wave did him no favors. Republicans avoided a primary between Ethan Hastert and State Senator Randy Hultgren (Hastert wound up running for and winning in Hultgren's State Senate seat). Hultgren proceeded to steamroll Foster in November.

General Election

Randy Hultgren (R) 58.13%
Bill Foster (D) 39.75%
Daniel Karis (G) 2.12%

17th Congressional District

Republicans saw an opportunity in Phil Hare, who had made several critical errors throughout his campaign. Republicans still had a competitive primary, but they would be ahead no matter the winner, and ended up picking the seat up in November.

Republicans

State Representative Michael Tryon 60.16%
Bushnell Alderperson Jerry Merrick 39.84%

General Election

Michael Tryon (R) 51.73%
Phil Hare (D) 47.09%
Roger Davis (G) 1.18%

[NewYorkExpress]

Tennessee

Tennessee had been shifting rightward for sometime, and it was solidified by John McCain's 20% win to go with two victories by George Bush. Still, Democrats controlled a number of different offices, and many felt Republicans would pick most of them up.

Governor

Governor Phil Bredsen was term-limited, and many were begging him to run against Bob Corker in 2012. Unfortunately for Democrats, they were headed to certain defeat without Bredsen. After several top candidates (all four Congressman, Ned McWherter, W.W Herenton and A.C Wharton) declined Democrats found their candidates in Tipper Gore (Yes, that Tipper Gore), while Republicans had a competitive race.

Republicans

Congressman Zach Wamp 40.39%
State Senator Ron Ramsey 39.18%
Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield 14.69%
Elkton Mayor Carolyn Thompson 5.54%

General Election

While Gore had a realistic chance to win, she was hit with embarrassment as her separation and pending divorce was leaked to the media in July 2010 (apparently by Lamar Alexander's staff). While she (and Al) fought gamely on, she never really recovered, and her platform's similarity to Al Gore's 2000 Presidential platform (something pointed out repeatedly by Mara Liasson, Susan Estrich and Laura Ingraham) was the final nail.


Zach Wamp (R) 50.67%
Tipper Gore (D) 43.81%
Byron Blinkley (I) 1.89%
James Reesor (I) 1.41%
Brandon Dodds (I) 1.03%
Howard Switzer (I) 0.83%
Carl Twofeathers Whitaker 0.46%

4th Congressional District

Lincoln Davis was in huge trouble, as a large Republican field built to challenge him, with all of them doing well against him. The early leader was Physician Scott DesJarlais, but he was hobbled by allegations of affairs and forcing his wife, ex-wife and another mistress to have abortions of children they didn't know they had. With his fundraising crippled, DesJarlais withdrew on January 23, 2010, and soon lost his license to practice medicine (he did however avoid criminal charges, despite a year long investigation by Marion County District Attorney's office). This led the GOP on a different track, and despite efforts by Lincoln to compare the nominee to DesJarlais, it was a winning track.

Republicans

State Representative Debra Maggart 41.87%
Minor Hill Mayor Tracy Wilburn 29.89%
LaFollette Mayor Mike Stanfield 14%
Sequatchie County Clerk Charlotte Cagle 9.76%
Mount Pleasant City Commissioner Ricky Frazier 4.48%

General Election

Debra Maggart (R) 55.19%
Lincoln Davis (D) 42.27%
James Gray (I) 1.03%
Gerald York (I) 0.77%
Paul Curtis (I) 0.48%
Richard Johnson (I) 0.26%

6th Congressional District

Unlike most Democrats, Bart Gordon saw the disaster coming, and announced his retirement in December 2009 (He would later become a regular writer for the Huffington Post and the Daily Caller) leading to crowded primaries on both sides. Still Republicans were heavy favorites here, and there was no reason to believe that they would lose.

Democrats

Former State Representative Kim McMillian 51.81%
Lawyer Brett Carter 23.07%
Former Congressman Bill Boner 22.12%
Horror Novelist Elizabeth Donald (dropped out ten days before primary) 3%

Republicans

State Representative Terri Lynn Weaver 40.61%
Cookeville Mayor Ricky Shelton 15%
State Senator Jim Tracy 13.1%
State Senator Diane Black 12.96%
Rutherford County GOP Chair Lou Ann Zelenik 12.05%
Greenbrier Alderman Steven Higdon 6.28%

General Election

While McMillian had kept the race from becoming a rout, the race had been written off since mid-2009 (before Gordon's retirement was announcement), and that didn't change.


Terry Lynn Weaver (R) 53.04%
Kim McMillan (D) 46.96%

8th Congressional District

Like in the sixth, many felt that this district was gone whether or not John Tanner ran for another term. Tanner announced his retirement shortly after Thanksgiving 2009, leaving Democrats with a seat they no longer had to even think about defending (much like the sixth). Democrats nominated State Senator Roy Herron without a fight, while Republicans had a contested race.

http://www.timesnews.net/data/gnpics/2012/16988ap_joeyhensley120228.jpg
State Representative Joey Hensley 48.02%
Farmer Stephen Fincher 19.76%
Dyer Alderwoman Belinda Oliver 15.09%
Atoka Alderman Danny Feldmayer 10.79%
Paris City Commissioner Terry Fuller 6.44%

General Election

For much of the Spring and Summer Herron, actually held the lead, mainly based on Tipper Gore's strong campaign for Governor. But as Tipper dropped in polls, and Hensley campaigned harder and harder for the seat, it became apparent that the GOP would add this seat as well.


Joey Hensley (R) 53.91%
Roy Herron (D) 45.39%
Donn James (I) 0.7%

[NewYorkExpress]

North Carolina

President Obama's narrow victory gave the Democrats hope that the Tar Heel state would come back their way, and while that hope was still there for the future, the GOP wave turned the hope into wishful thinking for 2010.

Senate

North Carolinians didn't like to re-elect their Senators (just ask Elizabeth Dole), and the occupants of this seat hadn't earned an additional (or even second) since Sam Ervin won his final term in 1968 (though that was slightly skewed by John Edwards deciding to run for President instead of re-election in 2004). This detail bore an ominous sign for the incumbent, Richard Burr, who as a Senator was about as bland as they came. He faced no opposition in the Republican Primary, and Democrats were set to have a competitive primary until Governor Beverly Perdue entered the race on February 2, 2010, quickly clearing the field of primary opposition.

General Election

While Burr came painfully close to being yet another North Carolina incumbent tossed amongst the driftwood, the favorable political climate enabled him to hang on by the skin of his teeth. Making matters worse for Purdue, she had seen her approval ratings sharply drop towards the end of the campaign, and would start any run for re-election as a heavy underdog.


Richard Burr (R) 48.07%
Beverly Perdue (D) 45.16%
Mike Beitler (L) 6.77%

2nd Congressional District

Bob Etheridge was in political trouble, especially after a June 2010 fiasco where he assaulted a pair of Republican operatives who were recording him. While he escaped criminal charges, he lost whatever remaining chance he had of winning re-election, especially since Republicans had lined up several serious candidates against him.

Republicans

Former Congressman David Funderburk 42.97%
Nurse Renee Ellmers 35.04%
Lillington Town Commissioner Marshall Page 9.76%
Four Oaks Town Commissioner Vic Medlin 8.13%
Auto Dealer Todd Gallas 4.1%

General Election

David Funderburk (R) 55.09%
Bob Etheridge (D) 42.16%
Tom Rose (L) 2.75%

7th Congressional District

Mike McIntyre was expected to face his first real fight since his election in 2006, and faced several dogged challengers across the aisle. By the time of the the GOP primary, almost everyone expected McIntyre to lose, the major question (and one no one seemed to agree on, was which Republican would defeat him).

Republicans

Former State Assemblyman Art Pope 50.17%
Wilmington Deputy Sheriff Ilario Pantano 24.02%
Bladenboro Mayor Rufus Duckworth 10.21%
Rose Hill Town Commissioner Marsha Whaley 9.65%
Stedman Mayor Billy Horne 5.95%

General Election

Art Pope (R) 52.07%
Mike McIntyre (D) 46.19%
Randy Crow (I) 1.76%

8th Congressional District

Larry Kissell was arguably the most vulnerable incumbent in North Carolina, and Republicans were in good position to to take him on, and wipe him out.

Republicans

Raeford City Councilman John Jordan 49.76%
Sportscaster Harold Johnson 38.04%
Hamlet City Councilman Tony Clewis 12.2%

General Election

John Jordan (R) 52.51%
Larry Kissell (D) 43.97%
Tim D'Annunzio (L) 3.52%

11th Congressional District

There was speculation that Heath Shuler might be vulnerable in 2010, but speculation turned to surprise in the winter of 2010, as Tennessee's Football Head Coach, Lane Kiffin left for USC, and Athletic Director Mike Hamilton offered Shuler, a star quarterback for the Volunteers during a meeting in February 2010. Shuler would accept the job, and announced a delayed resignation effective August 1, 2010 (just under a month away from Tennessee's opener). Governor Bredesen set a special election for October 11 (Columbus Day), in which Waynesville Alderwoman Julia Freeman picked up the seat for Republicans against gadfly opposition. She would face tougher opposition in the general election in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (With Eric Engberg suggesting on Face The Nation, that she suffered from "Stenbergitus", referring to Nebraska treasurer's struggles to win other offices) Unlike Stenberg, Marshall was swimming against a great tide, and she was defeated. 

General Election

Julia Freeman (R) 53.07%
Elaine Marshall (D) 46.93%

13th Congressional District

Like many of his colleagues, Brad Miller was in significant trouble, heading into the midterm, especially of a credible candidate surfaced fpr Republicans. Unfortunately for Miller, there was more than one.

Republicans

Chairman North Carolina GOP, Tom Fetzer 41.09%
Rocky Mount City Councilman W.B Bullock 33.77%
Eden City Councilwoman Donna Turner 14.73%
Publisher Bill Reeves 11.41%

General Election
While Fetzer was a strong candidate, he was also somewhat undisciplined, and showed this in several events, most notably a June 27 rally in Yanceyville, slamming The Sorcerer's Apprentice as "promoting real witchcraft", and the Twilight series as "promoting unhealthy behavior for people of all sexes". While no one (outside of the legions of Bella and Edward fans) would deny the second statement as true, the first one was widely ridiculed and cost Fetzer an election he should have won.


Brad Miller (D) 50.92%
Tom Fetzer (R) 49.08%

[NewYorkExpress]

California

Most pundits thought California wouldn't be hospitable to the building GOP wave, and no one thought they would win statewide.

Governor

Arnold Schwarzenegger was very unpopular as he left office, and despite some Republicans suggesting he should run against Barbara Boxer (or Diane Feinstein), the Governator desired to return to his movie career (and soon signed on to roles in The Expendendables 2,The Last Stand, and Escape Plan). Both sides had contested primaries.  

Republicans


Former Congressman Michael Huffington 41.45%
Congressman Dan Lungren 40.12%
Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 18.13%

Democrats


San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom 30.78%
Attorney General Jerry Brown 29.61%
Former Treasurer Phil Angelides 24.15%
Congressman Bob Filner 15.46%

General Election

Newsom had earned an impressive upset, defeating a sitting Congressman, his parties 2006 nominee, and a statewide official and former Governor- not bad for "only" the mayor of San Francisco. While Michael Huffington's win, as the most liberal Republican in the field was also an upset, but he was the candidate Democrats worried most (In many ways they were pleased Lungren ran, as they felt they could gain his House seat, and they were certain Poizner would be no threat). Huffington also had statewide experience, having earned the Republican nomination against Feinstein in 1994. Still, he would have to count on Newsom making mistakes to win, something that for the most part didn't happen.  


Gavin Newsom (D) 54.1%
Michael Huffington (R) 43.67%
Carlos Alvarez (Peace and Freedom) 1.08%
Chelene Nightingale (American Independent) 1.02%
Laura Wells (G) 0.16%
Dale Ogden (L) 0.07%

Senate

No one really thought Barbara Boxer would be in any trouble, if she ran for re-election. While rumors that Boxer would retire did circulate, she put those to rest in May 2009, and ultimately faced no opposition in the primary. Republicans did have a contested primary, and the candidates hoped to ride the wave building in their favor.

Republicans


State Senator Sam Aanestad 30.76%
Former Congressman Tom Campbell 25.15%
State Representative Chuck DeVore 20.63%
Former State Senator Jim Battin 17.03%
Former San Diego City Councilwoman Barbara Warden 6.53%

General Election

While Republicans did breathe a sigh of relief that neither Campbell or DeVore got the nomination (as each were way too conservative for California), they ended up with a candidate that was completely unknown to almost everyone in the state, giving Boxer an easy victory (especially compared to Newsom, who won by "only 10.5%".


Barbara Boxer (D) 62.23%
Sam Aanestad (R) 33.02%
Gail Lightfoot (L) 1.34%
Duane Roberts (G) 1.29%
Marsha Feinand (Peace and Freedom) 1.07%
Edward Noonan (American Independent) 0.56%
Mickey Kaus (I) 0.49%

3rd Congressional District

This district was widely considered safe for Republicans as long as Dan Lungren was running. Unfortunately, Lungren decided to run for Governor (losing to Michael Huffington in the GOP primary, after leading for several months), leaving Democrats with an actual chance to pick up the seat. They ran Physician Ami Bera, while Republicans nominated Amador County District Attorney Todd Riebe with no opposition. Ultimately, the wave would save Republicans here, as Riebe won by a narrow margin. Bera indicated he was interested in running again in his concession speech, and waited to see what redistricting would do (California had passed a non-partisan redistricting board, and attempted pass a top two primary by referendum (the former passed 55-45, while the latter failed 49-51).

General Election


Todd Riebe (R) 47.82%
Ami Bera (D) 45.89%
Mike Roskey (Peace and Freedom) 2.69%
Douglas Arthur Tuma (L) 2.43%
Jerry Leidecker (American Independent) 1.17%

10th Congressional District

No one really thought that John Garamendi would be in any real trouble, but those calculations were revised when former EBay CEO Meg Whitman dropped a bombshell on both Republicans and Democrats and announced she would run. Whitman proved to be a free spender (she could afford to, being worth more than $2 Billion), blowing through $27.72 million to try and defeat Garamendi. While National Democrats didn't write the seat off, they didn't really help him either, as they had many other fires to put out, and they confident the districts lean would come through for them. In the end they were right, as the insane amounts of money Whitman spent made the race perilously close, but weren't enough for a win.

General Election


John Garamendi (D) 50.12%
Meg Whitman (R) 49.53%
Jeremy Cloward (G) 0.45%

10th Congressional District

Few thought this district would be competitive in November, but that changed when Jerry McNerney announced he would run for (and later be elected as) Lieutenant Governor. Republicans nominated Attorney David Harmer, while Democrats salivating at an open seat, had a contested primary.

Democrats


Former Controller Steve Westly 39.87%
Entrepreneur Jason Lucash 30.19%
Morgan Hill City Councilwoman Marilyn Liebers 20.24%
Saratoga City Councilwoman Emily Lo 9.7%

General Election

While the race appeared close, in many ways Westly was a stronger candidate than McNerney, as he was a former statewide officeholder. That didn't mean his win wasn't hard fought though.


Steve Westly (D) 53.92%
David Harmer (R) 44.78%
David Christensen (American Independent) 1.3%

18th Congressional District

Dennis Cardoza was expected to win, but he decided to retire in August 2009, citing burnout. (Cardoza would become a lobbyist for OpenTable, Zynga, Pogo.com, and Pinterest starting in January 2011, with all jobs primarily based in San Francisco) Republicans nominated Mike Berryhill, who had powerful friends in the State Assemblyman. Democrats, meanwhile had another contested race.

Democrats

State Assemblywoman Cathleen Galgiani 39.44%
Modesto City Councilman Dave Lopez 30.67%
Merced City Councilman Joshua Pedrozo 17.56%
Stanislaus County Commissioner Vito Chiesa 12.33%

General Election

While Berryhill was able to raise money well, he was not a strong enough candidate to emerge victorious, even in the GOP wave.


Cathleen Galgiani (D) 53.39%
Mike Berryhill (R) 46.61%

19th Congressional District

George Radanovich had made it clear early on that he would not run for re-election, but many political watchers were surprised when he announced he would run for Controller (he lost to incumbent John Chiang in the general election). Democrats got a strong candidate for the district in former Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, but in reality he wasn't as strong, with liberals disliking him for running against Gray Davis in the 2003 recall, and for not returning donations from Insurance companies in the 2006 Insurance Commissioner race. Republicans had a solid primary, and had good reason to feel confident in a very GOP district.

Republicans


Mariposa County Supervisor Kevin Cann 39.23%
Tuolumne County Supervisor Randy Hanvelt 31.39%
Madera County Supervisor Tom Wheeler 22.17%
Turlock City Treasurer Diana Lewis 7.21%

General Election
While Bustamante was (somewhat) better than the standard Democrat here, this was a Republican district in a Republican wave. Still, early polling showed Bustamante doing well if he decided to run again.


Kevin Cann (R) 55.22%
Cruz Bustamante (D) 44.88%

20th Congressional District

Jim Costa was expected to face a tough race, and he started off trailing Generic R in polling. The Republicans nominated State Assemblyman Michael Villines, and he raced to a sizable lead. With the DCCC under stress across the country, they pulled out of the race in just after Labor Day. At the end of the day it wouldn't have mattered, as Villines won a big victory.

General Election


Michael Villines (R) 58.91%
Jim Costa (D) 41.19%

45th Congressional District

Despite being a generally Republican year, Mary Bono Mack appeared to be in political trouble. Democrats nominated State Assemblyman V. Manuel Perez, with no difficulty. Perez ran a strong campaign, while Bono Mack seemed to be almost solely relying on the wave, and barely campaigned. Perez ultimately won a race that Bono Mack easily could have avoided.

General Election


V. Manuel Perez (D) 50.73%
Mary Bono Mack (R) 47.08%
Bill Lussenheide (American Independent) 2.19%

[NewYorkExpress]

Florida

Florida was considered the ultimate swing state, largely because of the chaos that had occurred in 2000. While no one expected a repeat of that madness, everyone expected close races, and the eyes of the nation were on the Sunshine State as a result.

Governor

While most analysts thought Charlie Crist would have been favored for re-election, he decided to run for the Senate instead, leaving an open seat. Both sides had contested primaries, but with a building GOP wave all eyes were on the Republicans. Democrats also got some airtime, but their race was more low-key.

Democrats

State CFO Alex Sink 50.77%
Pompano Beach City Commissioner Ed Phillips 27.45%
Former Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox 21.78%

Republicans

State Representative Marco Rubio 36.14%
Attorney General Bill McCollum 33.12%
Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton 28.17%
Mike McAlister 1.57%

General Election

In many ways, the State GOP hit the jackpot in running Marco Rubio, a young, conservative, minority, who could shape the future of the party (It got to the point where some operatives were already begging Rubio to run for President in 2012, or against Bill Nelson in 2012). Alex Sink simply did not stand a chance.


Marco Rubio/Rick Baker (R) 60.07%
Alex Sink/Rod Smith (D) 38.29%
Michael Arth (I) 2.57%

Senate

Mel Martinez was generally unpopular, and made it clear he would retire. He had originally planned to resign as well, but Republican leaders were able to talk him in staying until inauguration day, especially after Martha Coakley's victory in Massachusetts. Republicans were able to recruit Governor Charlie Crist, but he was to moderate to go completely unchallenged, while Democrats had a contested race.

Republicans

Governor Charlie Crist 55.78%
Former Congresswoman Katherine Harris 30.02%
Pensacola City Councilman Larry Johnson 14.2%

Democrats

State Representative Maria Sachs 34.79%
Lawyer Jan Schneider 20.17%
Orlando City Councilman Tony Ortiz 20.09%
State Representative Esteban Bovo Jr. 16.03%
St.Cloud Mayor Rebecca Borders 8.92%

General Election

Once Crist got past the primary, there wasn't much work left for him to do. While Sachs campaigned hard, she was badly underfunded, and doing horribly in polling (to the point that on primary day she trailed all three Republicans by double digits- not that her fellow Democrats did much better, with the only Democrat polling within single digits of anyone on primary day being Bovo Jr, who trailed Crist 57-31, Harris 50-42, and Johnson 51-39, compared to Sachs trailing Crist 55-29, Harris 52-39 and Johnson 49-37). The result was a contest with Marco Rubio over who could deliver the bigger landslide (Which Rubio won, despite facing ostensibly better opposition in Alex Sink).


Charlie Crist (R) 59.76%
Maria Sachs (D) 38.37%
Bob Smith (I/L) 1.87%

2nd Congressional District

Republicans targeted classic Blue Dog Allen Boyd early, knowing the seat was a likely pickup. Boyd, knowing the exact same thing decided to depart, and instead chose to run for Agriculture Commissioner (losing to one of colleagues, Adam Putnam in the General Election). In his place Democrats nominated State Representative Alfred Lawson Jr, who had already announced a primary challenge to Boyd. Republicans meanwhile had a contested primary, but they were heavy favorites in the district, so it was arguably irrelevant.

Republican

Former State Representative Allan Bense 40.78%
State Representative Brad Drake 39.03%
Funeral Home Director Steve Southerland 19.21%

General Election

Allan Bense (R) 57.19%
Alfred Lawson Jr. (D) 41.79%
Paul McKain (I) 1.02%

8th Congressional District

Alan Grayson was the Michele Bachmann of the Democratic Party, something that did not bode well heading into a big GOP wave (especially since Bachmann also lost her seat). Republicans saw their best choice, former State Senator Dan Webster decline, but State Representative Kurt Kelly was more than willing to pick up the slack, and was subsequently nominated unopposed. Kelly also was able to pick up the seat in November.

General Election


Kurt Kelly (R) 55.87%
Alan Grayson (D) 44.13%

12th Congressional District

With Adam Putnam running for (and winning) Agriculture Commissioner, there was a need for a new person here. Republicans nominated former State Representative Dennis Ross, while Democrats chose former Congressman Dan Mica (Brother of John, a Republican Congressman representing the 7th district-he won easily). After twenty years out of Congress, his name recognition had dipped (though he got a few votes from Republicans confusing him with his brother-despite the fact his brother was already serving a few districts away), and this wasn't the territory he was used to anyway.

General Election


Dennis Ross (R) 52.07%
Dan Mica (R) 46.25%
Randy Wilkinson (I) 1.68%

22nd Congressional District

Ron Klein appeared to be in serious jeopardy of losing his seat. With Allen West running again (and his tendencies to shoot his mouth, and other organs off) Republicans needed to stop him before he got the nomination, leading to a rough primary (It didn't help that Klein was rather openly trying to influence the race-leading to a censure from the House ethics committee in December 2010, and a fine of $1.1 million levied against campaign by the Federal Election Commission in February of 2011.It didn't help anyways-both West and Klain lost in the end.

Republicans

State Representative William Snyder 54.09%
Defense Contractor Allen West 45.91%

General Election

State Representative William Snyder (R) 51.76%
Ron Klein (D) 48.24%

24th Congressional District

Suzanne Kosmas was one of the more vulnerable incumbents in Florida, and like her colleague Allen Boyd, she bailed to mount a doomed run for statewide office-in this case, the position of Attorney General (she lost to Pam Biondi in the general election by a margin of less than 800 votes. Republicans nominated State Senator Sandy Adams, while Democrats ran DeLand City Commissioner Charles Paiva. While many expected Adams to emerge victorious, Pavia ran a strong campaign, and did just enough to hold the seat by a narrow margin.

General Election

Charles Paiva (D) 50.29%
Sandy Adams (R) 49.71%

[Free Bird]

So Checkpoint stays a Republican in this universe

[NewYorkExpress]

So Checkpoint stays a Republican in this universe

For now, yes...

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

We like Allen West as a congress critter but keep up the good work.

[NewYorkExpress]

New York- Part 1

Governor

David Paterson's ascension to Governor had made history. but his approval ratings quickly headed south, largely thanks to a perceived failure in leadership during a month-long power struggle in the State Senate during of the Summer of 2009, which ultimately cost the state up to $150 million in unpaid taxes. Paterson ultimately bowed out on February 26, 2010, by which point a competitive Democratic field was already beginning to form. Republicans also had a contested race, and despite taking most of the blame for State Senate crisis, their candidates were largely favored as the primaries approached.

Republicans

Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef 31.09%
Former Congressman Rick Lazio 26.98%
Former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer 22.11%
State Senator George Winner Jr. 13.92%
State Senator James Alesi 5.9%

Democrats

Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli 42.07%
State Assemblywoman Sandy Gaief 19.22%
State Assemblyman Karim Camara 16.04%
Former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia 13.09%
Former New York City Councilman Gifford Miller 7.91%
Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner 1.67%

General Election

DiNapoli was probably the strongest realistic candidate that Democrats could get (after Andrew Cuomo, who agonized on the race until mid-March before passing), while Vanderhoef, despite being the GOP's 2006 nominee for Lieutenant Governor, had to fight the perception that the State Party preferred Lazio or Rudy Giuliani (who didn't run). Almost all pundits presumed that Democrats would hold the seat, but DiNapoli showed no real coattails, as Republicans gained a single State Senate seat, and no partisan change occurred in the Assembly.


Thomas DiNapoli/Albert Stirpe (D) 58.02%
C. Scott Vanderhoef/Daniel Burling (R) 39.85%
Howie Hawkins/Gloria Mattera (G) 1.02%
Warren Redlich/Alden Link (L) 0.64%
Write-in/Other 0.47%

Senate

Chuck Schumer was pretty much safe ,though that didn't stop an enterprising field of Republicans from attempting to take him on. With Harry Reid's (and to a lesser extent Patty Murray and Evan Bayh's) defeat he also seemed likely to move up in leadership, and possibly become floor leader.

Republicans

Former Congressman Bill Paxon 44.82%
State Senator Dale Volker 20.64%
State Assemblyman John Faso 17.31%
Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos 10.84%
Saratoga County Treasurer Sam Pitcheralle 7.39%

General Election

While Paxon was Schumer's toughest opponent since Alfonse D'Amato, it said less about Paxon's strength, and more about how weak Schumer's 2004 opponent, Howard Mills III was.


Chuck Schumer (D) 60.05%
Bill Paxon (R) 35.03%
Colia Clark (G) 1.68%
Randy Credico (L) 1.49%
Write-in/Other 1.75%

Senate (Special)

With Hillary Clinton now Secretary of State, an appointment was needed to fill the seat. After some stumbling upstate Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand was chosen. Unfortunately liberals howled over her pro gun stances, and her general status as a Blue Dog (and basically ignored her leftward shift as she became a statewide representative), and quickly organized a primary against her. Republicans, sensing an opportunity were able to persuade former Governor George Pataki to enter the race, but they weren't quite favorites yet.

Democrats

Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand 48.69%
Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy 46.77%
Labor Activist Jonathan Tasini 4.54%

General Election

Gillibrand had nearly been defeated in the primary, and was badly tarnished heading into the general election, something that Pataki, a three-time statewide winner was quick to capitalize on. With his victory, Republicans had gained a whopping ten total seats (with a net of nine-the Democrats, New Hampshire pickup had saved their Senate majority). Gillibrand already was indicating that she was considering running for the full term against Pataki in 2012 in her concession speech.


George Pataki (R) 47.93%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 46.82%
Cecile Lawrence (G) 2.71%
David Malpass (Conservative) 1.62%
Write-in/Other 0.92%