Could the Tea Party destroy the Texas Republican Party?

[illegaloperation]

The Texas GOP has always been unique in that it has in the past had moderate stances on things like immigration. As a result, the Texas GOP has been successful at holding on to the Hispanic vote that while other state's GOP struggle.

While the nomination of tea party candidates like Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton, could the Texas GOP's grip on the state be lessening?

Ironically, this is similar to the problem Arkansas Democrats have. They have always been strong as long as they can get Southern Whites to vote for them. If they fail, they are dead.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I don't see the Texas GOP losing their grip on my homestate until around 2020s at best.

[free my dawg]

I don't see the Texas GOP losing their grip on my homestate until around 2020s at best.

[smoltchanov]

I don't see the Texas GOP losing their grip on my homestate until around 2020s at best.

Of course you know better, because you live in Texas, but my personal forecast is even more pessimistic: about 2028-2030 at earliest..

[Adam Griffin]

It would take something earth-shattering to move Hispanics out of the TXGOP in droves and flip the state before, say, 2025 (and that's being optimistic). I don't think any one person or issue could do it.

The Republicans have fifty years of built-in accommodations and advantages with the Hispanic communities of Texas and that makes it incredibly unique when compared to other states. When Democrats were still dog-whistling, Republicans were building coalitions for the future and it paid off.

On the other hand, Hispanics in Texas aren't voting their numbers yet - even just comparing citizens, which is a much higher percentage of all Hispanics when compared to virtually every other state - and as such, they have quite a bit more immediate ground that could be gained, so who's to say. I think what can really break Texas over the next couple of decades is a moderation of whites coupled with an increase in Hispanic voters (who I'm assuming are around 40% Republican at the moment). The Tea Party, hilariously enough, may do more damage with whites than with Hispanics in a nominal sense if they really get extreme. Gaining 10 points with Latinos and 5 points with whites will be enough to do it for Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to illustrate what can be gained right now:

[Heimdal]

I don’t think so. The Texas GOP might be the Republicans strongest and most efficient state party next to Florida and Utah. They know that they can’t allow the lunatics to run the asylum.

[badgate]

You guys really want to know? Go to twitter and read the feed for this: #RPTCON14 <-hashtag for their state convention.

Just an example:
@scottbraddock: There was huge applause in the hall when undocumented immigrants were compared to terrorists, by the way #RPTCON14 #TxLege"

[badgate]

I couldn't find full results of the TX GOP convention's straw poll for 2016, but here are the major winners:

Ted Cruz - 43.4%
Ben Carson - 12.2%
Rand Paul - 12.1%
Rick Perry - 11.7%

Apparently there were huge cheers when Christie got less than 2%.

Edited

Thanks to Breitbart (never thought I'd say that), here are the full results:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/06/07/Ted-Cruz-Wins-GOP-Convention-Straw-Poll

[illegaloperation]

Well, I am not saying the the Tea Party will kill the Texas GOP tomorrow.

What I mean is that the Tea Party could wash away the goodwill the Texas GOP has built-up with the Hispanic community.

If something big like the Arizona SB 1070 passes, it could fundamentally changes the way Texas Hispanics think about the party.

[Del Tachi]

Given enough time, the Tea Party will destroy Republicans in Wyoming, Oklahoma, and everywhere else too!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Texas GOP has had moderate stances?!!!!
Anyways, there are plenty of batsh**t crazy Dale Gribbles in Texas.

[badgate]

Illegaloperation, if the Texas GOP passes the platform they adopted this weekend, you may get your wish.

MySA: Texas GOP Returns to hard-line immigration position
http://blog.mysanantonio.com/texas-politics/2014/06/texas-gop-returns-to-hard-line-immigration-position/

[eric82oslo]

Texas is a Republican state only because the vast majority of latinos in the state don't bother to vote. Everyone knows that. Don't pretend that it's a Republican state by default, cause it's an unmistakable fact that almost two out of three Texas latinos already vote Democratic (of the very, very, very few latinos who actually bothers to turn up at polling stations), and that percentage is likely to only increase in the years to come.

Texas is most likely going battleground sooner than all of you can say "quesarito"...
But Democrats need to earn their new latino voters by campaigning, organizing and adding new voter rolls hard and extensively in the state. Now let's wait and see how committed the Democratic Party will be in Texas from now on. I predict very. Because it's practically the only way to turn the tea party into the joke of the past.





What the Democratic future is made of lol.

[eric82oslo]

Given enough time, the Tea Party will destroy Republicans in Wyoming, Oklahoma, and everywhere else too!

Oklahoma? Sure! Sooner or later it is bound to happen (later rather than sooner though).
Wyoming? Don't see it happening anytime soon. It's probably gonna turn blue even later than Utah (that is; if ever). I predict Wyoming will be one of the four longest-lived Republican states in the nation, together with Alabama, North Dakota and West Virginia.

[pbrower2a]

The Texas GOP has had moderate stances?!!!!
Anyways, there are plenty of batsh**t crazy Dale Gribbles in Texas.

The Texas GOP began as a secular, pro-business Party associated with the powerful oil and agribusiness industries. It then rejected populism of any kind except for "law and order". It was not overtly racist, appearing only after the rejection of segregation was a 'done deal'. Populism was for Democrats, and left-wing populism as exemplified in the likes of Jim Hightower faded into impotence.

As the Democratic Party became irrelevant in statewide politics the secular, pro-business GOP began to adopt an appeal to the not-so-secular Right -- the Christian Protestant fundamentalists, the xenophobes, and the anti-abortion purists so that it could become as much a mass movement as a Party. Democrats would get to thrive in core cities and the Lower Rio Grande Valley and address local issues to the extent that the Texas Republican Party allowed. The Texas Republican Party co-opted Right populism in an effort to finish off the Democratic Party once and for all.

Texas never had the "Rockefeller Republicans" that states in the Northeast and Far West had. There were never any 'liberal Republicans' who would defect as the GOP became more extreme. The Tea Party has proved useful for oligarchs in much of America -- but it will exact a price, one of which will be the obliteration of secularism.    

[TX Conservative Dem]

Bigger question is how long will Republicans keep the Texas Governor's Mansion and the 28 other down ballot statewide offices?
A. 2022
B. 2030
C. 2034
D. Until TX Dems get their ****** off the couch

[Simfan34]

Given enough time, the Tea Party will destroy Republicans in Wyoming, Oklahoma, and everywhere else too!

Oklahoma? Sure! Sooner or later it is bound to happen (later rather than sooner though).
Wyoming? Don't see it happening anytime soon. It's probably gonna turn blue even later than Utah (that is; if ever). I predict Wyoming will be one of the four longest-lived Republican states in the nation, together with Alabama, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Tell me, o sage, what states will the Republican Party be able to hold on to?

[Person Man]

Of course the issue is whether Hispanics in Texas don't vote because 1) they can't because they intimidated from voting2) they "forget" because they are "hard to organize" or 3) won't because Republicans are racists against them but they are too religious to vote for pro-choice Democrats.

It would be a very interesting test case to see what happens if we run a Antiabortion Democrat in Texas for a statewide office. 2006 Pennsylvania Senate was a good case for avoiding cultural issues when Bob Casey beat Santorum almost 60-40 but 2010 and even 2012 was a good case that giving up on cultural issues does more harm than good Democrats. This was because only 18% of Obama voters were pro-life compared to like 30% of Romney voters being pro-choice in 2012 and that in 2010, almost every antiabortion Democrat in the house lost. 

[Maxwell]

Given enough time, the Tea Party will destroy Republicans in Wyoming, Oklahoma, and everywhere else too!

Oklahoma? Sure! Sooner or later it is bound to happen (later rather than sooner though).
Wyoming? Don't see it happening anytime soon. It's probably gonna turn blue even later than Utah (that is; if ever). I predict Wyoming will be one of the four longest-lived Republican states in the nation, together with Alabama, North Dakota and West Virginia.

[dmmidmi]

Apparently there were huge cheers when Christie got less than 2%.

And close to 60% of voters will still cast their ballot for him, should he be the 2016 GOP Presidential Nominee.

[The Mikado]

The reasons Texas is a Republican state have just as much to do with the utterly pathetic state of the Texas Democratic Party as it does anything to do with the GOP.

The Democrats aren't going to win those statewide offices as long as they keep running obscure state legislators and wealthy, often-crooked self-funders, but those are the only people it has.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The Tea Party is already destroying the GOP everywhere, so yes.

[Adam Griffin]

Texas is a Republican state only because the vast majority of latinos in the state don't bother to vote.

If you take Obama's 2008 performance in TX by race and combine that with the current Census population (and this includes non-citizens and children), then TX at best would be 50/50.

An estimated 11% of people who live in Texas are non-citizens; it is not unfair to say that at least 90% of those are Hispanic. So your Hispanic population in reality drops from 38% to 28% or so; white increases to 51%, black to 14% and other to 7%. Now let's rerun the numbers with citizen population only:

Whites (51%) @ 26% Dem = 13
Hispanics (28%) @ 63% Dem = 18
Blacks (14%) @ 95% Dem = 13
Other (7%) @ 60% Dem = 4

Obama 2008 scenario: 48% Dem

Then, you have to take into account how VAP is going to be quite a bit whiter than total population (I'd say at least 55% white). Roughly estimating here...

Obama 2008 scenario: 46% Dem at best, if you can make the electorate look exactly like the population, which, good luck with that...

[TX Conservative Dem]

Republicans likely going to sweep all statewide offices again for the 5th election cycle in a row (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010).

Currently, Republicans control 28 out of 29 statewide offices in Texas.