FiveThirtyEight Analysis: Don't Assume McDaniel Will Be Nominee

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/is-there-a-favorite-in-the-republican-runoff-for-senate-in-mississippi/

"Let’s compare the candidates using ideological scores from Stanford professor Adam Bonica (these are based on the ideology of the people who donate money to each candidate). Six of the 11 races for which we have scores featured the more conservative candidate doing better; five showed the opposite.

All of this suggests we should be cautious in speculating how the Mississippi runoff will go. There hasn’t been a GOP primary for Senate or governor in the past 26 years in which an incumbent didn’t get the most votes but still made a runoff. We’re in mostly uncharted territory. Yes, McDaniel could be considered the favorite; he had a slight lead in the first primary vote, and candidates who held higher office have usually lost ground. But it’s a small sample size, and the examples of James, Lincoln and Sessions say otherwise."

[Del Tachi]

Very good article.  I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.

Seems like McDaniel's campaign is hunkering down in advance of the primary, they're refusing to deal with potentially unfriendly media and sticking to campaign stops in DeSoto and the Pine Belt.  Doesn't seem like a winning strategy for a runoff where the electorate was split almost exactly 50/50.

[7,052,770]

Very good article.  I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.

People who didn't vote in either June 3 primary? If they voted in the Democratic primary, they can't vote this time, and if they didn't vote in either primary, why do they all-of-a-sudden care enough about Cochran if they didn't then?

I still hope Cochran pulls it out somehow, but I just don't see he's going to pull this off barring further scandal from McDaniel. Say what you will about Tea Partiers, they'll crawl over glass to vote for their people...

[Del Tachi]

Very good article.  I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.

People who didn't vote in either June 3 primary? If they voted in the Democratic primary, they can't vote this time, and if they didn't vote in either primary, why do they all-of-a-sudden care enough about Cochran if they didn't then?

Yes.  A lot of Democrats didn't bother voting in the rather uncompetitive Democratic primary and stayed home on June 3rd.  I've witnessed a big jump in the number of people around the Starkville/GTR/Tupelo area (which, granted, I haven't been outside that area of the state since June 3rd, so it could also be true in other places) suddenly interested in jumping aboard the Cochran ship.  These seem to be mainly older, yet more liberal, upper-middle class White people who generally considered Cochran to be a shoe-in against McDaniel; I guess these folks have now woken-up.  Is this a particulary large group of people?  Probably not.  Are people like this enough to decide the winner of what is sure to be an incredibly close runoff?  You bet.

As for McDaniel and his campaign's "enthusiasm", I think its safe to say it peaked on June 3rd.  That is not to say that McDaniel's been bleeding support since June 3rd, but just about anybody who had remotely heard about Chris McDaniel and his "muh America, muh liberty, muh FREEDOM" message (a.k.a., drank the McDaniel Kool-Aid) and was dumb enough to like it did the guy a favor and went out and voted.  Will most of these people turn out to vote again?  Probably, but I think a similar portion of Cochran's supporters will too.  But the way the McDaniel campaign is running does not appear to be designed to court additional support, while Cochran is looking to expand the electorate in his favor.  Sure its a difficult task, but its not impossible and IMO McDaniel should have put Cochran to sleep on primary night due to demographic factors alone.  The fact that he didn't shows deep failings on the part of his campaign.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Very good article.  I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.

People who didn't vote in either June 3 primary? If they voted in the Democratic primary, they can't vote this time, and if they didn't vote in either primary, why do they all-of-a-sudden care enough about Cochran if they didn't then?

Yes.  A lot of Democrats didn't bother voting in the rather uncompetitive Democratic primary and stayed home on June 3rd.  I've witnessed a big jump in the number of people around the Starkville/GTR/Tupelo area (which, granted, I haven't been outside that area of the state since June 3rd, so it could also be true in other places) suddenly interested in jumping aboard the Cochran ship.  These seem to be mainly older, yet more liberal, upper-middle class White people who generally considered Cochran to be a shoe-in against McDaniel; I guess these folks have now woken-up.  Is this a particulary large group of people?  Probably not.  Are people like this enough to decide the winner of what is sure to be an incredibly close runoff?  You bet.

As for McDaniel and his campaign's "enthusiasm", I think its safe to say it peaked on June 3rd.  That is not to say that McDaniel's been bleeding support since June 3rd, but just about anybody who had remotely heard about Chris McDaniel and his "muh America, muh liberty, muh FREEDOM" message (a.k.a., drank the McDaniel Kool-Aid) and was dumb enough to like it did the guy a favor and went out and voted.  Will most of these people turn out to vote again?  Probably, but I think a similar portion of Cochran's supporters will too.  But the way the McDaniel campaign is running does not appear to be designed to court additional support, while Cochran is looking to expand the electorate in his favor.  Sure its a difficult task, but its not impossible and IMO McDaniel should have put Cochran to sleep on primary night due to demographic factors alone.  The fact that he didn't shows deep failings on the part of his campaign.

Expand support, I thought you couldn't vote in the runoff unless you voted in the first primary?

[7,052,770]

If you didn't vote at all on June 3, you can vote in either runoff. You are only prevented from voting in the Republican runoff if you voted in the Democratic primary (or vice versa). How they enforce this beats me, since the only record is handwritten into a book.

[DrScholl]

Democrats don't show up in non-presidential elections for their own candidates in D vs R match-ups, so they certainly aren't going to show up for Cochran.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's Mississippi... McDaniel will be the nominee, and at the end of the day, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the runoff by 20+.