SHOCK poll: Eric Cantor (R) in primary trouble !?

[The Mikado]

I see this as a case of the tortoise and the hare.  The tortoise, Mitch McConnell, went back to his state, campaigned, brought home the pork-barrel, and did everything he could to reingratiate himself to Kentucky, a state where he was nonetheless widely despised, and pulled it off, winning his primary.  Eric Cantor, the hare, eager to get to the top of the House GOP food chain and becoming the Washington insider par excellence, ignored his district and his mosquito of a primary opponent and lost.

Take a page from Mitch McConnell: sometimes it pays to be the tortoise.

[Never]

I see this as a case of the tortoise and the hare.  The tortoise, Mitch McConnell, went back to his state, campaigned, brought home the pork-barrel, and did everything he could to reingratiate himself to Kentucky, a state where he was nonetheless widely despised, and pulled it off, winning his primary.  Eric Cantor, the hare, eager to get to the top of the House GOP food chain and becoming the Washington insider par excellence, ignored his district and his mosquito of a primary opponent and lost.

Take a page from Mitch McConnell: sometimes it pays to be the tortoise.

That's a good analogy. McConnell looks the part of a tortoise to boot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I see this as a case of the tortoise and the hare.  The tortoise, Mitch McConnell, went back to his state, campaigned, brought home the pork-barrel, and did everything he could to reingratiate himself to Kentucky, a state where he was nonetheless widely despised, and pulled it off, winning his primary.  Eric Cantor, the hare, eager to get to the top of the House GOP food chain and becoming the Washington insider par excellence, ignored his district and his mosquito of a primary opponent and lost.

Take a page from Mitch McConnell: sometimes it pays to be the tortoise.

Or it could be that Bevin's problems were simply far better known to voters than Brat's given that he recieved quite a bit of attention since he spoke at that one fair event shortly after announcing his candidacy.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I can now register to vote in his district. I've been avoiding it for some time because I didn't want him as my congressman.

You are the worst, the absolute worst, you racist vermin piece of garbage, most likely. Not entirely sure, but probably.

?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Map of VA-07.

Red = Cantor, Purple = Brat.

Cantor did better in Spotsylvania County than I would have expected considering his overall loss. I suppose the result could be attributed to the county being an exurb of Washington, D.C.

Yet Cantor's worst areas were the exurbs of Richmond. So not likely.

[Never]

Map of VA-07.

Red = Cantor, Purple = Brat.

Cantor did better in Spotsylvania County than I would have expected considering his overall loss. I suppose the result could be attributed to the county being an exurb of Washington, D.C.

Yet Cantor's worst areas were the exurbs of Richmond. So not likely.

All exurbs aren't created equally. Spotsylvania might be more moderate than the surrounding counties of Richmond, which could have helped Cantor there. I'm sure that Spotsylvania has more government workers than other counties in CD-7, being attached to the nation's capital, and the Republican variety of those workers probably preferred Cantor.

[Miles]

^ Culpeper and Spotsylvania counties are also in the much more expensive DC market.

[Maxwell]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

Well... I guess I'm heading towards wrongville.

[DINGO Joe]

I see this as a case of the tortoise and the hare.  The tortoise, Mitch McConnell, went back to his state, campaigned, brought home the pork-barrel, and did everything he could to reingratiate himself to Kentucky, a state where he was nonetheless widely despised, and pulled it off, winning his primary.  Eric Cantor, the hare, eager to get to the top of the House GOP food chain and becoming the Washington insider par excellence, ignored his district and his mosquito of a primary opponent and lost.

Take a page from Mitch McConnell: sometimes it pays to be the tortoise.

Let's call it the tale of the tortoise and the weasel.

If you live in exurban D.C. you probably work for the gov. or a company doing business with the gov.  If you live in exurban Richmond, you probably work for a tobacco company.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In the long run, sensible Republicans should also be disheartened; supporting reasonable immigration reform is one of the few ways to fight the demographic wave killing us in national elections. If we could even come close to carrying the same share of Hispanic and Asians voters W did, the future would be a lot brighter.

A reasonable immigration reform is one that won't necessitate yet another reform and another every other decade. The politics first or politics primarily approach demands something else and even then, it will take a lot more then that to achieve the results your mention politically speaking. 

[StateBoiler]

I see this as a case of the tortoise and the hare.  The tortoise, Mitch McConnell, went back to his state, campaigned, brought home the pork-barrel, and did everything he could to reingratiate himself to Kentucky, a state where he was nonetheless widely despised, and pulled it off, winning his primary.  Eric Cantor, the hare, eager to get to the top of the House GOP food chain and becoming the Washington insider par excellence, ignored his district and his mosquito of a primary opponent and lost.

Take a page from Mitch McConnell: sometimes it pays to be the tortoise.

That's the take all the D.C. political press took this morning.

[Badger]

In the long run, sensible Republicans should also be disheartened; supporting reasonable immigration reform is one of the few ways to fight the demographic wave killing us in national elections. If we could even come close to carrying the same share of Hispanic and Asians voters W did, the future would be a lot brighter.

A reasonable immigration reform is one that won't necessitate yet another reform and another every other decade. The politics first or politics primarily approach demands something else and even then, it will take a lot more then that to achieve the results your mention politically speaking. 

Please don't cite 'politics' as a driving force FOR immigration reform. Irony levels that high are probably lethal.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In the long run, sensible Republicans should also be disheartened; supporting reasonable immigration reform is one of the few ways to fight the demographic wave killing us in national elections. If we could even come close to carrying the same share of Hispanic and Asians voters W did, the future would be a lot brighter.

A reasonable immigration reform is one that won't necessitate yet another reform and another every other decade. The politics first or politics primarily approach demands something else and even then, it will take a lot more then that to achieve the results your mention politically speaking.  

Please don't cite 'politics' as a driving force FOR immigration reform. Irony levels that high are probably lethal.

Well that is the point, neither side really cares about the best policy and politics drives everything hence why reasonable is not in the equation at all, but I was speaking in terms of the state political objective you mentioned. The politically motivated approach varies based location usually.

[Mr. Morden]

He's not going to carry on as House Majority Leader as a lame duck, I doubt the party would let him anyway, but someone has to pick that up.

He's not?  I would have figured that he'll continue serving as Majority Leader until his term is up.  Otherwise, you have to reshuffle the entire leadership below Boehner, as everyone tries to move up to the next rung on the ladder.  Why have a distracting leadership battle like that right now?  It makes far more sense to hold off on that until November.

Unless Cantor has already made some kind of announcement to suggest that he'll step down as Majority Leader?

Anything he says and does, everyone can mock him for his primary loss and ignore what he says because he's not long for this world. The man's castrated if he attempts to retain his power.

Well, I have yet to see any statement to the effect that he's planning to step down from leadership before his term is up, nor any indication that his colleagues are planning to force him out.  There is just no point in him relinquishing his post right now.  We only have a few months to go until Congress adjourns anyway.  Why create this gigantic leadership battle right now?  He'll stay on until November, when the party will elect new leadership, following the general election.

It's not gigantic, this is not some commonwealth country's parliamentary party leadership election. The Republican representatives of the House, more than 200 people, get together and vote for a House Majority Leader.

The point is that Cantor is a fallen king. Why would anyone take orders from a fallen king? The reason you took orders from him before no longer exists.

Ah, looks like you were right.  I am genuinely surprised.

[Sol]

Brat is also from Hanover County, so home county effect there.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Could it be that Cantor was done in by local considerations?  A lot of people voted for Brat because Cantor was out of touch with his district (or so I'm told).  If so, isn't this kind of a parochial motivation, and not an ideological one?  If Eric Cantor, a personal bane to Obama, is insufficiently conservative for GOP voters in a GOP district, that means that there's no virtue in "working across the aisle".  Of course, "working across the aisle" is a key part of advancing parochial concerns, is it not?

Cantor comes off to me as a snot-nose; a smarmy, snarky weasel who I wouldn't trust to keep his end of a deal if pressure came to bear.  But he's not the first guy on the unlikeable side in Congress, and nastier people have won elections.  Still, he's not likeable, and I wonder how much that played in his defeat.  

I think that the Democrats need to contest this seat, as it represents a rare chance at expanding the map.  Brat is a likeable guy now, but he's an extreme religious conservative, which will produce vote leakage.  The wind is at his back now, but a moderate and reasonable Democrat may get enough Cantor supporters to elect a Democrat who is likely to be no more than a one-termer if elected.  I'm not sure that Brat isn't vulnerable, despite his present status as a giant-killer.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

It's honestly the sort of argument I'd expect from the sociologist in this race, not the economist. I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all--I have a higher opinion of sociology than of economics as an academic discipline, overall--but it's just not the sort of theory I'd expect to see come from an economics department.

[ag]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

It's honestly the sort of argument I'd expect from the sociologist in this race, not the economist. I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all--I have a higher opinion of sociology than of economics as an academic discipline, overall--but it's just not the sort of theory I'd expect to see come from an economics department.

It is coming from a theological seminary in this case

[ag]

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I wonder, if he's ever been to South Africa )

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

It's honestly the sort of argument I'd expect from the sociologist in this race, not the economist. I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all--I have a higher opinion of sociology than of economics as an academic discipline, overall--but it's just not the sort of theory I'd expect to see come from an economics department.

It is coming from a theological seminary in this case

Randolph Macon College has a good religious studies program and is institutionally affiliated with the United Methodist Church, but it is not a theological seminary - it's a liberal arts college. When I visited there as a prospective student I got the impression of a beautiful campus with great professors, and students who were world-class experts in the consumption of booze.  There isn't generally a strong religious emphasis unless you seek it out.

[Donerail]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

It's honestly the sort of argument I'd expect from the sociologist in this race, not the economist. I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all--I have a higher opinion of sociology than of economics as an academic discipline, overall--but it's just not the sort of theory I'd expect to see come from an economics department.

It is coming from a theological seminary in this case

Randolph Macon College has a good religious studies program and is institutionally affiliated with the United Methodist Church, but it is not a theological seminary - it's a liberal arts college. When I visited there as a prospective student I got the impression of a beautiful campus with great professors, and students who were world-class experts in the consumption of booze.  There isn't generally a strong religious emphasis unless you seek it out.

Brat has a degree from Princeton Theological Seminary. I think ag is saying that those views are rooted in his religious education and not as much his economics education.

[ag]

So apparently Brat's campaign manager is...well...read for yourselves
http://news.yahoo.com/brat-campaign-manager-scrubs-facebook-page-after-election-173536113.html

He also has some pretty unorthodox economic views, especially for someone who is...err...an economics professor:
http://wonkwire.rollcall.com/2014/06/11/brat-says-bernanke-failed-underestimated-protestants/

I don't know if it is unorthodox for an economics professor, but it's clearly inspired by the work of Max Weber. 

It's honestly the sort of argument I'd expect from the sociologist in this race, not the economist. I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all--I have a higher opinion of sociology than of economics as an academic discipline, overall--but it's just not the sort of theory I'd expect to see come from an economics department.

It is coming from a theological seminary in this case

Randolph Macon College has a good religious studies program and is institutionally affiliated with the United Methodist Church, but it is not a theological seminary - it's a liberal arts college. When I visited there as a prospective student I got the impression of a beautiful campus with great professors, and students who were world-class experts in the consumption of booze.  There isn't generally a strong religious emphasis unless you seek it out.

Brat has a degree from Princeton Theological Seminary. I think ag is saying that those views are rooted in his religious education and not as much his economics education.

Exactly

[minionofmidas]

Seems more a case of "nothing is as dangerous as a moron with a piece of information". The information being from Max Weber... the moron too dumb to realize that Weber predates economic growth models and the US didn't become protestant yesterday.