Opinion of George Friedman's 'The Next 100 Years'

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years

No poll.  I want to see real original perspectives and arguments.

I'll let you all gloss over the article itself, but for those of you who are too lazy to skim, in summary the book predicts:

• Conflict between US and Islamic terrorism to die down, US and Russia to enter second Cold War
• The Russian government, as well as the governments of its former states, will collapse.  Chinese government will fragment as well.  Eurasia will go into crisis as a result.
• Turkey, Poland, and Japan to emerge as three main powers.  Turkey will have increasing influence over Eurasia and the Middle East, and Israel, while still a powerful nation, will be forced to come to an accommodation with Turkey.  Japan will become more aggressive militarily and influence Pacific affairs in a similar manner.
• The US will be allied with the aforementioned countries in the early years of their dominance, but tensions will increase.  Germany and Mexico may turn against the US.
• Low birthrates in developed countries, such as those in Europe, will result in dramatic cultural, social, and political shifts, causing Western nations to compete for immigrants.  In particular, the US will reverse its policy of discouraging Mexican immigration and will begin trying to entice foreigners - especially Mexicans, to immigrate to the US.
• World War III will start in the mid-21st century, Friedman hypothesizes that the US will be attacked by Turkey and Japan on November 24, 2050, at 5:00 p.m, during Thanksgiving Day.
• Mexico will gain political influence in North America, still a continent of the global political and economic gravity.  The Southwestern US will become ethnically, culturally, and socially Mexican, with more citizens there identifying as Mexican rather than American.  Conflict will develop between Mexico and the US to fight for dominance of North America and most countries, wary of American dominance, will back Mexico.
• A bunch of technological developments

My opinion: This "political scientist" is probably better suited for fiction writing than anything remotely comparable to what can be considered a serious prediction.  The fact alone that his claims are so oddly specific is enough to be suspect, but the only predictions of his I think can be taken seriously are his technological ones.  I look forward to being shut out if anyone believes otherwise.

[politicus]

My opinion: This "political scientist" is probably better suited for fiction writing than anything remotely comparable to what can be considered a serious prediction.  The fact alone that his claims are so oddly specific is enough to be suspect, but the only predictions I think can be taken seriously of his are his technological ones.  I look forward to being shut out if anyone believes otherwise.

I completely agree with this (not original - but basically this book is quite lame, so there isn't much to discuss).

[SPC]

I found his account

[Meursault]

Is this before or after the Polo-Iraqi War?

[TNF]

The only things that seem plausible is a Second Cold War (given that it's already started in no part thanks to years of encircling Russia and NATO expansionism), Japan re-arming and trying to distract it's own population from it's massive demographic problems (a far-right party that was founded literally five minutes ago rose to third place in the last elections and it's fairly obvious that this is pushing the governing LDP to the right on issues of national integrity/race/etc.), World War III (I tend to think this is inevitable, given the continual decline of the U.S. Empire and the rise of China).

Everything else is totally batsh**t.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

lol poland

[Blue3]

Only the first two bullets seem realistic. The rest sounds like pure fiction.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reads like a 13 year old's timeline not a serious prediction.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I laughed out loud at Poland.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Far out, man, far out.

[King]

I'm surprised this wasn't self-published

[ingemann]

Several people has ridiculed his point about Poland. But I think people don't get how ridiculous it really is, even in the context Friedman sets up. He think Poland will come to dominate thanks to the low birth rate of western Europe.

So here's the fertility rate of Poland: 1.33 child per woman, they're only beaten by 2 EU countries Romania and Lithuania. At the same time Poland are primary an emigration country, with over million Poles having emigrated the last decade.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It also seems that Friedman obsesses himself a lot over a future war with Japan.

In addition to The Next 100 Years, he had already authored a book titled The Coming War with Japan back in 1991.

This guy must have watched too many Pearl Harbor movies or something...

[ingemann]

Several people has ridiculed his point about Poland. But I think people don't get how ridiculous it really is, even in the context Friedman sets up. He think Poland will come to dominate thanks to the low birth rate of western Europe.

So here's the fertility rate of Poland: 1.33 child per woman, they're only beaten by 2 EU countries Romania and Lithuania. At the same time Poland are primary an emigration country, with over million Poles having emigrated the last decade.

So you're saying that I shouldn't invest in Eastern Poland?

Very funny:)

But if you want to hear my real opinion, I think investments in Poland are a good idea, while Poland will not becoming a great power or even a dominating country in EU, Poland are fully on its way to the same standard of life as western Europe, I expect them to overtake Spain and Italy in GDP per capita in the next decade or two.

[RR1997]

Only bullet points 1,2,5, and 7 seem reasonable. The rest is pure fiction.