Rating the Gubernatorial Races

[morgieb]

Similar to my Senate Ratings which ranks all the races this year from most likely to be picked up to least likely.

1. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - dead meat, quite frankly. It'll take a miracle for him to come back.
2. Arkansas (D-Open) - while Pryor looks to be rebounding, Ross seems to be fading away quite significantly. Will be hard for the Dems to keep the seat here, though a comeback isn't out of the question.
3. Maine (R-LePage) - his numbers are actually trending up in recent polls. More Republicans of the moderate kind seem to be coming back to him, as Cutler's numbers seem to be increasingly be restricted to Democrats. We'll wait and see if that's the case on election day, and the firms are still saying Michaud is ahead.
4. Florida (R-Scott) - the FDP looks to be screwing up....again. Scott's numbers have been pretty consistently trending up and it looks like it might not be long before Scott is clearly favoured.
5. Illinois (D-Quinn) - no doubt Quinn is in sh**t, but Illinois is still very blue which could save him. Rauner being nominated is probably a positive for Quinn, as he is probably prone to being interpreted as too right-wing for Illinois.
6. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Malloy has never had a lot of goodwill from the state's voters, and Connecticut is pretty friendly to moderate Reps, which Foley probably counts as. In Malloy's favour is that Connecticut is still quite blue, and Malloy was able to knock off Foley in 2010.
7. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - polls are all over the place. While it's pretty clear that Burke can get 45% of the vote without trying, it'll be interesting to see whether she can get to 50%.
8. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - as blue as Hawaii is, Abercrombie has long been unpopular and the Reps do have a serious candidate. The one published poll has Abercrombie behind his opponent. He does however have a strong primary challenger, and it is likely that all that it would take to hold the Governor's house is a Generic D.
9. Michigan (R-Snyder) - definitely Schauer is struggling, and this race is consolidating for Team R. If Schauer can campaign well he might bounce back, otherwise Snyder probably wins comfortably.
10. Georgia (R-Deal) - Deal isn't the sort of guy that would be well-liked by anyone. He holds the advantage, but Carter can knock him off with a strong campaign and Deal will probably make a few mis-steps during the campaign.
11. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad seems to be losing momentum and now has some ethics issues clouding him. The good news for him is that the opposition
12. Kansas (R-Brownback) - yes Kansas is still quite red, and yes Davis is probably too left-wing for Kansas as a whole. But Brownback has shocking approvals and PPP and SurveyUSA reckon he's behind. Ouch.
13. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's position is stronger than it was last year, and his opposition is of weak quality. No doubt Hickenlooper has been controversial, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to lose.
14. Ohio (R-Kasich) - most polls are clearly trending in Kasich's direction and Fitzgerald is struggling. At this stage, Kasich is the clear favourite.
15. Arizona (R-Open) - still very early days, but in Arizona the Republican deserves favouritism. Very hard to see how a Dem wins in a midterm.
16. Massachusetts (D-Open) - new polls are coming out showing Coakley ahead by only single-digits. Now these polls have high undecideds and are from lesser-known firms, but still the chances of Coakley screwing it up again is not out of the question.
17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - King does have name recognition, and some polls has shown this as quasi-competitive, but his time as the AG has been controversial and Martinez has done a good job as Governor. Only problem is, how blue is New Mexico these days?
18. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Shaheen did push Haley in 2010, but Haley has been inoffensive as Governor and South Carolina is still pretty red. Ultimately it's Haley's race to lose.
19. Texas (R-Open) - it's still Texas. Abbott's leads over Davis are pretty robust too, and let's not forget Davis's main shtick is being pro-choice.
20. Rhode Island (I-Open) - treating Chafee as a Democrat for the purposes of this exercise. While Rhode Island can elect Republicans in the right circumstances, whoever the Dems nominate should be a clear favourite. Most published polling seems to relate to the primary rather than the general election race.
21. Nebraska (R-Open) - Ricketts lead was surprisingly narrow in the one published poll here. His only experience was losing heavily to Ben Nelson. Sleeper race?
22. Maryland (D-Open) - I don't usually write-off races without incumbents early, particularly at the gubernatorial level, but it would be hard work to win this one.
23. New Hampshire (D-Hassan) - Hassan's leads are robust and she doesn't have A-tier opposition.
24. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - Sandoval has been good as Nevada's governor and the Dems didn't recruit good opposition.
25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - again, robust polling leads, lack of compelling opposition, strong record as governor.
26. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Richardson is simply not a compelling candidate.
27. Idaho (R-Otter) - Otter's lead is actually quite small, but a lot of that might be down to right-wingers thinking Otter isn't conservative enough.
28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Griffith is a turncoat. And it's Alabama. Bentley has been poor as governor, but will Alabamans see it? Unlikely.
29. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - it's Vermont. Only risk is the Progressive party gaining traction.
30. New York (D-Cuomo) - this could be interesting to watch as Cuomo's main opposition seems to be from the left (WFP apparently nabbed 24% in the latest poll), but it's unlikely that a third party will find someone compelling enough to seriously endanger Cuomo.
31. California (D-Brown) - Brown got over 50% in the jungle primary. At least Tim Donnelly didn't get the nomination.
32. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - Fallin's basically governed as expected, and she has little opposition.
33. Alaska (R-Parnell) - has pretty robust polling leads, and Alaska is still pretty red.
34. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam is popular and won big in 2010.
35. South Dakota (R-Daugaard) - Daugaard is popular.
36. Wyoming (R-Mead) - it's Wyoming.

[ElectionsGuy]

1. PA - Corbett (Likely D)
2. ME - LePage (Lean D)
3. FL - Scott (Lean D)
4. AR - OPEN (Toss-Up)
5. IL - Quinn (Toss-Up)
6. CT - Malloy (Lean D)
7. MI - Snyder (Lean R)
8. WI - Walker (Lean R)
9. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
10. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)*
11. GA - Deal (Lean R)
12. KS - Brownback (Likely R)
13. CO - Hickenlooper (Likely D)
14. SC - Haley (Likely R)
15. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
16. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
17. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
18. HI - Abercrombie  (Likely D)*
19. MN - Dayton (Safe D)
20. MD - OPEN (Safe D)
21. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
22. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
23. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
24. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
25. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
26. RI - OPEN (Safe D)
27. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
28. SD - Dauggard (Safe R)
29. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
30. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
31. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
32. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)
33. ID - Otter (Safe R)
34. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)
35. CA - Brown (Safe D)
36. WY - Mead (Safe R)

* Not very sufficient enough information to make a decent judgement as of yet, so I guessed.

That's my list, though you might as well throw the last 10-12 in the same pile. The first 20 or so is what counts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Outside of Pa and Me and FL, the next pickup chance seems to be Wisc. Other than that, all the others are leaning towards respective party.

[SWE]

1. Pennsylvania (Safe D)
2. Maine (Lean D)
3. Florida (Tossup/Tilt D)
4. Arkansas (Tossup/Tilt R)
5. Illinois (Pure Tossup)
6. Michigan (Pure Tossup)
7. Kansas (Tossup/Tilt R)
8. Connecticut (Lean D)
9. Wisconsin (Lean R)
10. Ohio (Lean R)
11. Georgia (Lean R)
12. Arizona (Likely R)
13. South Carolina (Likely R)
14. Colorado (Likely D)
15. New Mexico (Likely R)
16. Iowa (Likely R)
17. Hawaii (Likely D)
18. Rhode island (Likely D)
19. Massachusetts (Likely D)
20. Nebraska (Safe R)
21. New Hampshire (Safe D)
22. Oregon (Safe D)
23. Maryland (Safe D)
24. Nevada (Safe R)
25. Minnesota (Safe D)
26. Texas (Safe R)
27. Idaho (Safe R)
28. Tennessee (Safe R)
29. South Dakota (Safe R)
30. Alaska (Safe R)
31. Alabama (Safe R)
32. Oklahoma (Safe R)
33. Vermont (Safe D)
34. New York (Safe D)
35. Wyoming (Safe R)
36. California (Safe D)

[muon2]

Similar to my Senate Ratings which ranks all the races this year from most likely to be picked up to least likely.

5. Illinois (D-Quinn) - no doubt Quinn is in sh**t, but Illinois is still very blue which could save him. Rauner being nominated is probably a positive for Quinn, as he is probably prone to being interpreted as too right-wing for Illinois.

Rauner is as far from right-wing as you can get in a major GOP candidate on social issues. SoCon groups were all against him during the primary and there's been talk by some of those groups to draft a conservative to run as an independent. The unions, particularly public sector unions, will be the greatest opposition to Rauner.

[SPC]

Disclaimer: I have been paying less attention to this than the Senate races:

Safe R (>95% chance of victory)
Alabama
Idaho
Nevada
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely R (>85% chance of victory)
Alaska
Iowa
Nebraska
New Mexico
South Carolina
Texas

Lean R (>60% chance of victory)
Arizona
Georgia
Kansas
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin

Tossup (no point in saying which side is favored at this point, since it will likely change by election day)
Arkansas
Florida
Illinois
Maine (in a normal state I would think that a tied race with a strong-polling left-wing third party candidate would favor the D in the end, but Maine's affinity for third parties doesn't guarantee that Cutler's voters will abandon him in the end for Michaud)

Lean D
Colorado
Connecticut (tempted to put this at tossup)
Hawaii
Massachusetts

Likely D
New Hampshire
Oregon
Rhode Island

Safe D
California
Maryland
Minnesota
New York
Pennsylvania
Vermont

[TX Conservative Dem]

The Florida Democrats are turning into the Oklahoma City Thunder: too weak in the big bright lights and choke in clutch time.

Crist is the Indiana Pacers of Florida politics: good in the regular season, horrible in the playoffs.

[NHLiberal]

Yes...
1. PA - Corbett (Likely D Pickup)

Likelier than not...
2. ME - LePage (Lean D Pickup)
3. FL - Scott (Lean D Pickup)
4. IL - Quinn (Toss-Up)

Could go either way...
5. KS - Brownback (Toss-Up)
6. CT - Malloy (Toss-Up)
7. AR - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. MI - Snyder (Toss-Up)
9. GA - Deal (Lean R)

Incumbent party is favored, but a pickup is quite possible
10. WI - Walker (Lean R)
11. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)
12. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
13. SC - Haley (Lean R)
14. HI - Abercrombie  (Likely D)
15. CO - Hickenlooper (Likely D)

Highly improbable...
16. NE - OPEN (Likely R)
17. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
18. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
19. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
20. RI - OPEN (Likely D)
21. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
22. MN - Dayton (Safe D)
23. MD - OPEN (Safe D)

Live boy or dead girl...or a strong challenge from the Progressive Party of Vermont
24. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
25. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
26. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
27. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
28. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
29. SD - Dauggard (Safe R)
30. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
31. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)

LOL
32. CA - Brown (Safe D)
33. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
34. WY - Mead (Safe R)
35. ID - Otter (Safe R)
36. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)





UPDATES

6/23: Nebraska Safe R ---> Likely R
6/25: Kansas Lean R ---> Toss Up

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

1. PA - Corbett (Likely D)
2. ME - LePage (Lean D)
3. AR - OPEN (Tossup)
4. FL - Scott (Tossup)
5. IL - Quinn (Tossup)
6. WI - Walker (Lean R)
7. CT - Malloy (Lean D)
8. KS - Brownback (Lean R)
9. MI - Snyder (Lean R)
10. GA - Deal (Lean R)
11. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)
12. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
13. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
14. SC - Haley (Likely R)
15. CO - Hickenlooper (Likely D)
16. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
17. HI - Abercrombie (Likely D)
18. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
19. RI - OPEN (Likely D)*
20. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
21. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
22. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
23. MD - OPEN (Safe D)
24. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
25. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
26. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
27. MN - Dayton (Safe D)
28. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
29. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
30. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)
31. ID - Otter (Safe R)
32. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)
33. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
34. CA - Brown (Safe D)
35. SD - Daugaard (Safe R)
36. WY - Mead (Safe R)

*Assuming, for the purposes of this exercise, that Chafee is a Democrat.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Safe D
New Hampshire
New York
Vermont

Strong D
Minnesota
Oregon

Lean D
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

Toss-Up
Arkansas
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
South Carolina
Wisconsin

Lean R
Arizona
Iowa
Kansas
Nebraska
New Mexico
Texas

Strong R
Alabama
Alaska
Georgia
Nevada
Tennessee

Safe R
Idaho
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Wyoming

[NHLiberal]

Lean D
California

...

[free my dawg]

...yeah, Kashkari might have had a chance in 2010 against a weaker opponent, but no way he makes it competitive.

[Maxwell]

...yeah, Kashkari might have had a chance in 2010 against a weaker opponent, but no way he makes it competitive.

I don't think so even then. Schwarzenegger's unpopularity basically neutralized the 2010 Republican advantage in California statewide.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Lean D
California

...

[Хahar 🤔]

...yeah, Kashkari might have had a chance in 2010 against a weaker opponent, but no way he makes it competitive.

As ever, I fail to see what about Kashkari would make him an acceptable candidate against any opponent.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Lean D
California

...

Yeah, although I'd say that Governor Moonbeam is favored to win, California is a diverse state in spite of its liberalism.  I could see a scenario where the GOP wins this one, although I don't think it's very likely.

[dmmidmi]

Lean D
California

...

Yeah, although I'd say that Governor Moonbeam is favored to win, California is a diverse state in spite of its liberalism.  I could see a scenario where the GOP wins this one, although I don't think it's very likely.

Huh?

Last four polls:

Rasmussen (6/5/14): Moonbeam by 19
Survey USA (5/19/14): Moonbeam by 35
Public Policy Institute of CA (3/18/14): Moonbeam by 37
Public Policy Institute of CA (1/14/14): Moonbeam by 36

If the GOP comes within 20 in this election, they could consider it a good night.

Moonbeam isn't simply "favored to win." Barring a catastrophe, his victory is a certainty.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Florida Democrats are turning into the Oklahoma City Thunder: too weak in the big bright lights and choke in clutch time.

Crist is the Indiana Pacers of Florida politics: good in the regular season, horrible in the playoffs.

Crist has lots of friends in law enforcement, traditionally a GOP constituency.  Scott will have to outspend Crist by a lot to win.  Scott is NOT popular, although he does appear to be running a disciplined, on-message campaign.

[Dixie Reborn]

Safe Republican

-Alabama
-Alaska*
-Idaho
-Nevada
-Oklahoma
-South Dakota
-Tennessee
-Texas
-Wyoming

Likely Republican

-Georgia
-Iowa
-Nebraska*
-New Mexico
-Ohio
-South Carolina

Lean Republican

-Arizona*
-Arkansas
-Kansas
-Michigan
-Wisconsin*

Tossup

-Connecticut*
-Florida
-Illinois
-Maine
-Rhode Island

Lean Democrat

-Colorado
-Hawaii*
-Massachusetts

Likely Democrat

-Maryland
-Oregon

Safe Democrat

-California
-Minnesota
-New Hampshire
-New York*
-Pennsylvania
-Vermont

*Ratings could change after seeing more polls, or due to changing circumstances/events.
Likely Party Switch

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tossup

-Rhode Island

You do know Chafee isn't running again right?

[Maxwell]

Tossup

-Rhode Island

You do know Chafee isn't running again right?

The Republicans aren't bad candidates, and Rhode Island has a strong history of electing Republican Governors (until Chafee, a Republican hadn't been elected Governor in close to 20 years). That being said, it's closer the Lean D.

[jamesyons]

From most likely Democrat to most likely Republican

1. New York
2. Vermont
3. California
4. New Hampshire
5. Maryland
6. Rhode Island
7. Minnesota
8. Oregon
9. Massachusetts
10. Pennsylvania
11. Colorado
12. Maine
13. Florida
14. Connecticut
15. Hawaii
16. Illinois
17. Georgia
18. Wisconsin
19. Arkansas
20. Ohio
21. Michigan
22. Arizona
23. Kansas
24. New Mexico
25. Iowa
26. South Carolina
27. Texas
28. Alaska
29. Nebraska
30. Idaho
31. Nevada
32. Oklahoma
33. South Dakota
34. Tennessee
35. Alabama
36. Wyoming

[Bojack Horseman]

Safe Republican

-Alabama
-Alaska
-Idaho
-Nevada
-Oklahoma
-South Dakota
-Tennessee
-Wyoming

Likely Republican

-Iowa
-Nebraska
-Illinois
-New Mexico
-Ohio
-Texas
-South Carolina

Lean Republican

-Arizona
-Arkansas
-Georgia
-Michigan
-Wisconsin

Tossup

-Rhode Island
-Kansas

Lean Democrat

-Hawaii
-Florida

Likely Democrat

-Colorado
-Oregon
-Connecticut

Safe Democrat

-California
-Minnesota
-Maine
-Massachusetts
-New Hampshire
-New York
-Pennsylvania
-Vermont
-Maryland

[Free Bird]

Somehow, my rankings/analysis on all of these exceeded the character limit (I really should start limiting how much I say from now on lol ), so I'll put them in 2 different posts.

These are from most likely to see a party switch in a seat to least likely:

1) Pennsylvania (Likely D) - Corbett has so much baggage that it will be nearly impossible for him to hold on, but Wolf also has a little baggage from management and racial problems and there's still the lodged fact that he's the incumbent which means he's got a lot to stride on to avoid being the first PA Governor to be defeated.

2) Maine (Lean D) - LePage is really banking way too much on Cutler's impact on the race given all of LePage's constant gaffes. Cutler already said if it became apparent he couldn't win, to vote for Michaud and obviously most of those Cutler defectees will do so. It will be interesting though to see if Collins and Raye have any impact on this race, if any, at all.

3) Arkansas (Lean R) - Beebe might be really popular, but Ross made a rookie mistake in coming out in favor of marijuana legalization. He's socially conservative on a lot of other ends, but AR voters overwhelmingly oppose marijuana and voted against medical marijuana in 2012. I don't think this is the main reason for why Ross out of nowhere is trailing Asa, but it sure doesn't help, either. If he continues to express his Bluedog views though and gets Beebe and Clinton to campaign for him some more, he could potentially turn this around again.

4) Florida (Tossup) - What used to be the 2nd most likely pickup is now the 4th, unfortunately. Crist and the FDP need to step up their game not only in money and ads, but work on trust and turnout among liberal voters especially around Miami. Just amazing how this went from Crist +10 to Scott +2.

5) Wisconsin (Tossup) - A true tossup here. Given how much 2016's at stake here, the RGA will do all in it's power to make sure Walker's re-elected, but with the controversy over voter ID, cutting funding for public schools, refusing to expand Medicaid, union busting, being the new Mr. Ultrasound, and having himself in a scandal, the sympathy voters who opposed the runoff and voted against Barrett won't be voting against Burke this time.

6) Ohio (Tossup) - I did have it before as tossup/tilt R, but Kasich's ad power has worn off and things are starting to look good for OH Dems and awful for the Kasich administration. There's another heavily controversial abortion bill in the legislature now which would ban insurance from covering abortion in all cases which Kasich would likely sign if it makes it to his desk. Kasich also recently signed SB310 which will ultimately raise electricity bills for working and middle class families. There's also new info leaking in Frackinggate with Kasich and then his best bud Josh Mandel is in some heat as well involving illegal campaign contributions which will likely bring Mandel down and subsequently take some votes away from other Republican officials. On our side of the aisle, FitzGerald got the endorsement of a lifetime from President Clinton who said he would vote for FitzGerald based on his resume which might further help FitzGerald around coal country. His new fundraising numbers have increased a little bit, to and we’ll be on the air very, very soon!

7) Michigan (Tossup) – Aside from Georgia, the DGA is dumping loads of money into this race and out of all Midwestern Governors, Snyder will probably be the prime target of the unions. All the polling has been terrible here except for PPP who suggest this is really within a few points even with Schauer’s lack of name recognition.

8 ) Illinois (Tossup/Tilt D) - Quinn might be very unpopular and starting to face the proverbial scandal path that IL Gov's are known for, but the popular Durbin will be on the same ballot as him which could boost much needed turnout from the Obama machine in Cook County and elsewhere. Rauner is just like Romney, only instead of flopping to the right, he's flopping to the left and I just don't think Illinois will buy into it. He’s still in trouble, though.

9) Kansas (Tossup/Tilt R) – I’m inclined to partially agree with tmth on this race in that it looks vulnerable, but will start shifting away from us as there gets to be less undecided’s and Paul Davis’ record becomes more well-known among Kansans. Still, Brownback is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country (more unpopular than Corbett, actually) and can still potentially go down.

10) Arizona (Tossup/Tilt R) –   Because it’s Arizona and we don’t have the strongest Democratic candidate that we could have had, this still tilts in the GOP’s favor until we start getting more into the campaign, but with the frontrunners for the GOP nomination being between an anti-Obama, Tea Party-backed ice cream owner and a self-funding, Ted Nugent-like gun supporter, I like our chances.

11) Georgia (Lean R) – I only give GA this rating because people seem to forget that Carter will somehow need to get 50% +1 to avoid a runoff (where he would most likely lose to Deal). Deal is unpopular no doubt, but most Deal haters will just go for the Libertarian as the polls imply and strong campaign or not, Carter can’t seal the deal if he doesn’t get 50% on November 4th.

12) Connecticut (Lean D) – It’s an accepted belief that undecided’s will most likely break for Malloy. Foley has the possibility to make this race close though and there is a spoiler Independent (former Democrat) candidate who might make the ballot.

13) Hawaii (Lean D) – This should be likely D, but Hanneman, a former populist Democrat, is in this race and it’s hard to say right now whether he’ll hurt Abercrombie or Aiona. The current polling is lackluster, but Aiona is a great candidate and if he runs on a more socially liberal record this year, could pull a surprise upset.

14) New Mexico (Lean R) – This is really on the borderline of lean-likely. King’s high name ID should be a problem for Martinez even if King is viewed unfavorably. It’s a low-profile race, but it’s one to watch if Dems are adamant about knocking off a great VP pick for Republicans.

15) Iowa (Lean R) – Like NM, this is really, really close to being likely R. This could have been competitive if a strong Democrat got in, but with a weak candidate like Hatch, most polls show Branstad still up by high single digits. Still, Hatch has a lot of ground he can make up when 60% of Iowa voters have no opinion of him and Branstad’s under 44% approval’s amid scandal.

16) Rhode Island (Likely D) – Given how the Democrats are destroying each other in the primary, RI’s huge unemployment rate, Gov. Chafee’s unpopularity, and the state’s elasticity, this definitely isn’t safe yet. It will be a stretch for Republicans here, but history is at least on their side when it comes to holding the Governorship in modern-day.

17) Nebraska (Likely R) – Ricketts has proven he can somehow manage to lose in landslides in Nebraska. Not that Hassebrook is Nelson by any means, but if you ignore the internal, Rassy still had this race in single digits and it’s because of Ricketts’ unpopularity and Hassebrook actually being a decent candidate who can potentially do well among rural voters. It is Nebraska though so I wouldn’t get our hopes up.

18) South Carolina (Likely R) – Haley’s approvals and the economy are improving, but she isn’t to that safe point, yet. Sheheen’s best shot is if Ervin and the Libertarian can steal enough votes from her.

Who says that?

[NHLiberal]

Somehow, my rankings/analysis on all of these exceeded the character limit (I really should start limiting how much I say from now on lol ), so I'll put them in 2 different posts.

These are from most likely to see a party switch in a seat to least likely:

1) Pennsylvania (Likely D) - Corbett has so much baggage that it will be nearly impossible for him to hold on, but Wolf also has a little baggage from management and racial problems and there's still the lodged fact that he's the incumbent which means he's got a lot to stride on to avoid being the first PA Governor to be defeated.

2) Maine (Lean D) - LePage is really banking way too much on Cutler's impact on the race given all of LePage's constant gaffes. Cutler already said if it became apparent he couldn't win, to vote for Michaud and obviously most of those Cutler defectees will do so. It will be interesting though to see if Collins and Raye have any impact on this race, if any, at all.

3) Arkansas (Lean R) - Beebe might be really popular, but Ross made a rookie mistake in coming out in favor of marijuana legalization. He's socially conservative on a lot of other ends, but AR voters overwhelmingly oppose marijuana and voted against medical marijuana in 2012. I don't think this is the main reason for why Ross out of nowhere is trailing Asa, but it sure doesn't help, either. If he continues to express his Bluedog views though and gets Beebe and Clinton to campaign for him some more, he could potentially turn this around again.

4) Florida (Tossup) - What used to be the 2nd most likely pickup is now the 4th, unfortunately. Crist and the FDP need to step up their game not only in money and ads, but work on trust and turnout among liberal voters especially around Miami. Just amazing how this went from Crist +10 to Scott +2.

5) Wisconsin (Tossup) - A true tossup here. Given how much 2016's at stake here, the RGA will do all in it's power to make sure Walker's re-elected, but with the controversy over voter ID, cutting funding for public schools, refusing to expand Medicaid, union busting, being the new Mr. Ultrasound, and having himself in a scandal, the sympathy voters who opposed the runoff and voted against Barrett won't be voting against Burke this time.

6) Ohio (Tossup) - I did have it before as tossup/tilt R, but Kasich's ad power has worn off and things are starting to look good for OH Dems and awful for the Kasich administration. There's another heavily controversial abortion bill in the legislature now which would ban insurance from covering abortion in all cases which Kasich would likely sign if it makes it to his desk. Kasich also recently signed SB310 which will ultimately raise electricity bills for working and middle class families. There's also new info leaking in Frackinggate with Kasich and then his best bud Josh Mandel is in some heat as well involving illegal campaign contributions which will likely bring Mandel down and subsequently take some votes away from other Republican officials. On our side of the aisle, FitzGerald got the endorsement of a lifetime from President Clinton who said he would vote for FitzGerald based on his resume which might further help FitzGerald around coal country. His new fundraising numbers have increased a little bit, to and we’ll be on the air very, very soon!

7) Michigan (Tossup) – Aside from Georgia, the DGA is dumping loads of money into this race and out of all Midwestern Governors, Snyder will probably be the prime target of the unions. All the polling has been terrible here except for PPP who suggest this is really within a few points even with Schauer’s lack of name recognition.

8 ) Illinois (Tossup/Tilt D) - Quinn might be very unpopular and starting to face the proverbial scandal path that IL Gov's are known for, but the popular Durbin will be on the same ballot as him which could boost much needed turnout from the Obama machine in Cook County and elsewhere. Rauner is just like Romney, only instead of flopping to the right, he's flopping to the left and I just don't think Illinois will buy into it. He’s still in trouble, though.

9) Kansas (Tossup/Tilt R) – I’m inclined to partially agree with tmth on this race in that it looks vulnerable, but will start shifting away from us as there gets to be less undecided’s and Paul Davis’ record becomes more well-known among Kansans. Still, Brownback is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country (more unpopular than Corbett, actually) and can still potentially go down.

10) Arizona (Tossup/Tilt R) –   Because it’s Arizona and we don’t have the strongest Democratic candidate that we could have had, this still tilts in the GOP’s favor until we start getting more into the campaign, but with the frontrunners for the GOP nomination being between an anti-Obama, Tea Party-backed ice cream owner and a self-funding, Ted Nugent-like gun supporter, I like our chances.

11) Georgia (Lean R) – I only give GA this rating because people seem to forget that Carter will somehow need to get 50% +1 to avoid a runoff (where he would most likely lose to Deal). Deal is unpopular no doubt, but most Deal haters will just go for the Libertarian as the polls imply and strong campaign or not, Carter can’t seal the deal if he doesn’t get 50% on November 4th.

12) Connecticut (Lean D) – It’s an accepted belief that undecided’s will most likely break for Malloy. Foley has the possibility to make this race close though and there is a spoiler Independent (former Democrat) candidate who might make the ballot.

13) Hawaii (Lean D) – This should be likely D, but Hanneman, a former populist Democrat, is in this race and it’s hard to say right now whether he’ll hurt Abercrombie or Aiona. The current polling is lackluster, but Aiona is a great candidate and if he runs on a more socially liberal record this year, could pull a surprise upset.

14) New Mexico (Lean R) – This is really on the borderline of lean-likely. King’s high name ID should be a problem for Martinez even if King is viewed unfavorably. It’s a low-profile race, but it’s one to watch if Dems are adamant about knocking off a great VP pick for Republicans.

15) Iowa (Lean R) – Like NM, this is really, really close to being likely R. This could have been competitive if a strong Democrat got in, but with a weak candidate like Hatch, most polls show Branstad still up by high single digits. Still, Hatch has a lot of ground he can make up when 60% of Iowa voters have no opinion of him and Branstad’s under 44% approval’s amid scandal.

16) Rhode Island (Likely D) – Given how the Democrats are destroying each other in the primary, RI’s huge unemployment rate, Gov. Chafee’s unpopularity, and the state’s elasticity, this definitely isn’t safe yet. It will be a stretch for Republicans here, but history is at least on their side when it comes to holding the Governorship in modern-day.

17) Nebraska (Likely R) – Ricketts has proven he can somehow manage to lose in landslides in Nebraska. Not that Hassebrook is Nelson by any means, but if you ignore the internal, Rassy still had this race in single digits and it’s because of Ricketts’ unpopularity and Hassebrook actually being a decent candidate who can potentially do well among rural voters. It is Nebraska though so I wouldn’t get our hopes up.

18) South Carolina (Likely R) – Haley’s approvals and the economy are improving, but she isn’t to that safe point, yet. Sheheen’s best shot is if Ervin and the Libertarian can steal enough votes from her.

Who says that?

Gun to my head, Malloy loses. CT is a likelier R pickup than Arkansas (both are toss-ups though, and IL is still the likeliest of the R pickups (also a toss-up))