Rating the Gubernatorial Races

[NHLiberal]

7/12 Updates
FL: Lean D Pickup ---> Toss Up; 3rd likeliest to flip ---> 5th likeliest to flip; "Likelier than not" ---> "Could go either way"
KS: "Could go either way" ---> "Likelier than not ; 5th likeliest to flip ---> 4th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
GA: Lean R ---> Toss-Up (Still 9th likeliest to flip)
WI: Lean R ---> Toss-Up; "Incumbent party is favored" ---> "Could go either way" (Still 10th likeliest to flip)

SC: 13th likeliest to flip ---> 11th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)
OH: 12th likeliest to flip ---> 13th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)
AZ: 11th likeliest to flip ---> 12th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)

CO: 15th likeliest to flip ---> 14th likeliest to flip; Likely D ---> Lean D
HI: 14th likeliest to flip --->15th likeliest to flip; Likely D ---> Lean D

MA: 19th likeliest to flip ---> 17th likeliest to flip (Still Likely D)
NM: 17th likeliest to flip ---> 19th likeliest to flip (Still Likely R)

MD: 23rd likeliest to flip ---> 21st likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)
OR: 21st likeliest to flip ---> 22nd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)
MN: 22nd likeliest to flip ---> 23rd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)

New Ratings
Yes...
1. PA - Corbett (Likely D Pickup)

Likelier than not...
2. ME - LePage (Lean D Pickup)
3. IL - Quinn (Toss-Up)
4. KS - Brownback (Toss-Up)

Could go either way...
5. FL - Scott (Toss-Up)
6. CT - Malloy (Toss-Up)
7. AR - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. MI - Snyder (Toss-Up)
9. GA - Deal (Toss-Up)
10. WI - Walker (Toss-Up)

Incumbent party is favored, but a pickup is quite possible
11. SC - Haley (Lean R)
12. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)
13. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
14. CO - Hickenlooper  (Lean D)
15. HI - Abercrombie (Lean D)

Highly improbable...
16. NE - OPEN (Likely R)
17. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
18. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
19. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
20. RI - OPEN (Likely D)
21. MD - OPEN (Safe D)
22. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
23. MN - Dayton (Safe D)

Live boy or dead girl...or a strong challenge from the Progressive Party of Vermont
24. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
25. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
26. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
27. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
28. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
29. SD - Dauggard (Safe R)
30. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
31. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)

LOL
32. CA - Brown (Safe D)
33. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
34. WY - Mead (Safe R)
35. ID - Otter (Safe R)
36. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)

Gun to my head, the first 11 flip for a total net gain of D+5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa, RI, and ME are Dem

FL and ARK and MI are pure tossups

Moderate risks.
IL, KS, CT and CO

3-5 seat net gain Dem

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Current Overall Prediction: PA, AR, IL, ME, and FL all flip (D+1)

Approximate odds of flipping (excluding races safe for the incumbent party):

1. PA (Chance of flipping: 97%) (Corbett should really just concede today)
2. AR (Chance of flipping: 67%)
3. IL (Chance of flipping: 60%)
4. ME (Chance of flipping: 54%)
5. FL (Chance of flipping: 51%)
6. CT (Chance of flipping: 48%)
7. WI (Chance of flipping: 48%)
8. MI (Chance of flipping: 46%)
9. CO (Chance of flipping: 45%)
10. MA (Chance of flipping: 40%)
11. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
12. AZ (Chance of flipping: 35%)
13. SC (Chance of flipping: 35%)
14. OH (Chance of flipping: 30%)
15. NM (Chance of flipping: 12%)
16. RI  (Chance of flipping: 12%)
17. IA (Chance of flipping: 10%)
18. MD (Chance of flipping: 10%)
19. MN (Chance of flipping: 7%)

A note about KS, NE, and HI: All of these probably have about a 15-20% chance of flipping, but I don't permit myself to further change the ratings of races I rated safe at an earlier point in the cycle, so all three will remain at Safe D/R.

[NHLiberal]

Current Overall Prediction: PA, AR, IL, ME, and FL all flip (D+1)

Approximate odds of flipping (excluding races safe for the incumbent party):

1. PA (Chance of flipping: 97%) (Corbett should really just concede today)
2. AR (Chance of flipping: 67%)
3. IL (Chance of flipping: 60%)
4. ME (Chance of flipping: 54%)
5. FL (Chance of flipping: 51%)
6. CT (Chance of flipping: 48%)
7. WI (Chance of flipping: 48%)
8. MI (Chance of flipping: 46%)
9. CO (Chance of flipping: 45%)
10. MA (Chance of flipping: 40%)
11. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
12. AZ (Chance of flipping: 35%)
13. SC (Chance of flipping: 35%)
14. OH (Chance of flipping: 30%)
15. NM (Chance of flipping: 12%)
16. RI  (Chance of flipping: 12%)
17. IA (Chance of flipping: 10%)
18. MD (Chance of flipping: 10%)
19. MN (Chance of flipping: 7%)

A note about KS, NE, and HI: All of these probably have about a 15-20% chance of flipping, but I don't permit myself to further change the ratings of races I rated safe at an earlier point in the cycle, so all three will remain at Safe D/R.

That's ridiculous. Kansas is honestly a toss-up at this point. I don't know why you have that bizarre policy in place, but it probably should never have been Safe R in the first place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will retain IL

and pickup MI, WI or OH, Pa, ME and FL

Ga and KS are clearly dark horse races but above is our top priority.

Pickup by GOP in ARK,