Rhode Island Redistricting

[CountyTy90]

So I decided to redistrict Rhode Island and try my best to not break city/town boundaries. It can be done. Here are the numbers and maps to prove it!

Using Dave's Redistricting, the state has two Congressional Districts, each with a target population of 526,284.

*RED= Republican* *Blue= Democrat*



District 1

Population- 527,050 (+766)

An extremely urban district. Anchored by Providence, this district takes in the state's 5 largest cities and a few smaller cities. It includes Barrington, Central Falls, Cranston, East Providence, North Providence, Pawtucket, Providence, and Warwick
 
Overwhelmingly Democratic, it is a racially diverse district. Here's the breakdown:

White- 62.6%
Hispanic- 20.8%
Black- 8%
Other- 8.6%

In the 2012 presidential election, it voted overwhelmingly for Obama. The district gave slightly over 70% to Obama, up slightly from 69.5% in 2008. Providence went over 80% Democratic, while Pawtucket and Central Falls gave him over 70% of their vote each. Only one town in the district, Barrington in Bristol County, did Romney even break 40%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+20.

District 2

Population- 525,517 (-767)

This district comprises the rest of Rhode Island, or what I like to call, Greater Rhode Island. A very coastal district, it comprises all of Newport and Washington Counties, all of Kent except Warwick, all of Bristol, but Barrington, and western and northern Providence County.

This district is also Democratic, though, not to the extent of the first. It, however, is extremely white. Here's the breakdown:

White- 90.2%
Hispanic- 4%
Black- 1.7%
Other- 4.1%

This district surprised me by giving Romney over 40%. It still went fairly Democratic, giving Obama 56.7% of the vote, while Romney tallied 41.1%. All towns that voted Republican (all 3 of 'em) are located in this district.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.

2012 Elections





Stay tuned... I'm working on the 80's!

[muon2]

Very nice. You might also want to look at some work on RI I did earlier this year. I looked at the population and geographic values as neutral criteria that could withstand any legal challenge. The idea is that the population inequality has to be a low as possible unless some other factor requires it to be larger. We both use whole towns as one of those factors, then I add erosity as measured by road connections between towns.

[CountyTy90]

Very nice. You might also want to look at some work on RI I did earlier this year. I looked at the population and geographic values as neutral criteria that could withstand any legal challenge. The idea is that the population inequality has to be a low as possible unless some other factor requires it to be larger. We both use whole towns as one of those factors, then I add erosity as measured by road connections between towns.

Interesting, I like your last two maps the best. The first is probably the one I would go for, just for reasons of compactness and travel would be easier in that district for a congressman or congresswoman. Yours also had lower deviations than mine... which I'm jealous about.

[nclib]

Nice that DRA now has partisan data for RI. That RI-1 has got to be close to a Democratic pack, yes?

[CountyTy90]

Nice that DRA now has partisan data for RI. That RI-1 has got to be close to a Democratic pack, yes?

Technically yes, it wasn't my intention; my main intentions were 1. Not split any towns/cities and 2. To create a more "rural" district than Rhode Island currently has. And by making one urban and one "rural" district, the urban one ultimately takes in the state's most Democratic areas. I'm sure there are many other ways to do this, as the post above from muon2 shows.

RI-1 also has a large minority population, while the rest of Greater Rhode Island is fairly white, I think like 90%ish? So why not give them a larger voice by, and yes I'll admit it, packing them into one district.

RI-2, however, has some pretty strong Dem areas too; Woonsocket, the Warwicks, Newport, New Shoreham (Block Island), Westerly, etc.

(Weird to notice this, but all those cities have a "w" in them... weird.)

[CountyTy90]

Okay, here's the 80's.

Rhode Island's population in 1980 was 947,154. With two districts, that means each target population is 473,577.



District 1

Population- 473,675 (+98)

This district takes in Providence and its immediate suburbs. It also throws in Scituate which is a fairly rural town.

In the 80's this district would be a Democratic district, though, not as strong as today. Reagan was competitive in 1984, but as time went on it has become more Democratic.

Here's the demographics:

White- 89.9%
Hispanic- 3.3%
Black- 4.5%
Other- 2.3%

In 1984, Mondale won the district, but not by the margin he would have won it with today's Democratic majority. He got 53.4% of the vote while Reagan got 46.2%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+12

In 1988, neighboring governor Dukakis won the district handily, capturing 59.5% of the vote; Bush was able to break just 40.1%

This district would have a CPVI of D+14

District 2

Population- 473,479 (-98)

This district takes up the rest of Rhode Island; all of Newport and Washington Counties, Bristol County except Barrington, Kent County, except West Warwick, and western and northern parts of Providence County.

This district could be seen as a swing district. Washington County is strongly Republican as is Kent in the 80's; Newport and Bristol Counties were swingy. Northern Providence County is also swingy with Democratic towns such as Burrillville and Woonsocket, but has Republican towns like Glocester and Lincoln.

Here's the demographics:

White- 96.9%
Hispanic- .9%
Black- 1.1%
Other- 1.1%

In 1984, this district went to Ronald Reagan. Reagan got 56.8% of the vote to Mondale's 42.9%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+3.

In 1988, the district swung hard to the Democrats giving Michael Dukakis 52.2% of the vote to George Bush's 47.3% A good showing, but major ground was lost between '84 and '88.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.

1984 Results





1988 Results

[CountyTy90]

Here's my redistricting in the 90's:

By 1990, Rhode Island's population finally grew over 1 million people to 1,003,464. The target population for each district is 501,732.



District 1

Population- 502,327 (+595)

The First District takes in Providence and it's immediate suburbs, as well as the north eastern portion of the state taking in some more rural towns like Smithfield and Lincoln.

Here's the demographics:

White- 82.8%
Hispanic- 7.8%
Black- 5.5%
Other- 3.9%

In 1992, the district voted for Bill Clinton easily, giving him 51.4% to Bush's 27% and Perot's 20.9%. To calculate the CPVI, I used Clinton, Bush, and Perot since Perot had a very good showing nationally. It has a lower Democratic CPVI than it normally would mostly due to Perot's competitiveness.

This district would have a CPVI of D+8.

In 1996, Clinton again carried the district garnering 65.2% to Dole's 22.6% and Perot's 10%. Again in this election I used Perot because he fared much better than most third party candidates do.

This district would have CPVI pf D+17.

In 2000, Al Gore easily carried the district and the Democratic margin increased. Gore got 66.9% to Bush's 26.6%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+21.

District 2

Population- 501,137 (-595)

The Second District takes up the remainder of Rhode Island including all of Kent, Bristol, Washington, and Newport Counties as well as western and northern Providence County.

Here's the demographics:

White- 95.9%
Hispanic- 1.3%
Black- 1.3%
Other- 1.5%

In 1992, this District continued it's trend and swung to the Democrats. Clinton carried the district with 43.2% to Bush's 30.8% and Perot's 25.2%. Bush carried only two towns, statewide, and both were located in this district; East Greenwich and Scituate.

This district would have a CPVI of EVEN.

In 1996, Clinton carried the district again, substantially increasing his advantage, getting 55.1% to Dole's 30.4% and Perot's 12.2%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.

In 2000, it continued to drift to the left, though, Bush Jr. received the highest percentage of the vote in the district since his father in '88. He was able to win East Greenwich and Scituate, a feat Dole did not achieve in 1996. Gore got 56.2% to Bush 36.3%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+11.

[CountyTy90]

Here's how I redistricted after the 2000 Census:

Rhode Island again kept it's two Congressional seats. The state's population reached 1,048,319, each district should be 524,160.



District 1

Population- 523,624 (-536)

This district doesn't change much from the 1990 redistricting map; it loses Smithfield and gains Barrington.

Here's the demographics:

White- 70.7%
Hispanic- 15.1%
Black- 6.5%
Other- 7.7%

In 2004, the district gave John Kerry 64.6% to George Bush's 33.6%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+17.

In 2008, Barack Obama easily carried the district getting 68.8% of the vote, while John McCain got 29.7%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+16.

District 2

Population- 524,695 (+536)

Again, this district remains much the same as in the 1990's. All of Washington, Newport, Kent, and Bristol counties, except Barrington, and northern and western Providence County.

Here's the demographics:

White- 93%
Hispanic- 2.3%
Black- 1.5%
Other- 3.2%

In 2004, John Kerry beat George Bush 55% to 43%, respectively. George Bush was able to win three towns statewide, all located in the 2nd.

This district would have a CPVI of D+7.

In 2008, the Democratic margin increased giving Barack Obama 58.5% to John McCain's 39.7%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.