1992: Jimmy Carter is the Democratic nominee
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:48:36 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1992: Jimmy Carter is the Democratic nominee
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 1992: Jimmy Carter is the Democratic nominee  (Read 2705 times)
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 08, 2014, 04:49:10 AM »

In 1992, the Democrats nominate former President Jimmy Carter, who faces President George Bush sen. and Ross Perrot.

Who is going to win by which margin?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2014, 04:59:38 AM »



Carter wins by 3 nationally.
Logged
Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2014, 06:21:04 PM »

That would be awesome..
Logged
tarheel-leftist85
krustytheklown
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2014, 02:07:55 PM »



Carter - 34.2 - 271
Bush - 33.9 - 157
Perot - 30.7 - 110
Other - 1.2

Perot overperforms his actual '92 results outside of the South - people are even more disillusioned with their choices.  Carter only hits 50% in GA, AR, LA, and WV; 45% in TN, NC, SC, KY, MS, AL, NY, MA, RI, MD; 40% in TX, FL, MO, OK, OH, IL. He manages 35-40% in CA, MI, WI, IN, VA, NJ, DE, PA, and CT but still loses them. 
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2014, 02:35:35 PM »



Maybe I'm overestimating Bush's performance somewhat, but I don't see how Carter could do much better than this.



Carter - 34.2 - 271
Bush - 33.9 - 157
Perot - 30.7 - 110
Other - 1.2

Perot overperforms his actual '92 results outside of the South - people are even more disillusioned with their choices.  Carter only hits 50% in GA, AR, LA, and WV; 45% in TN, NC, SC, KY, MS, AL, NY, MA, RI, MD; 40% in TX, FL, MO, OK, OH, IL. He manages 35-40% in CA, MI, WI, IN, VA, NJ, DE, PA, and CT but still loses them.  

...no.
Logged
RR1997
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,997
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2014, 02:38:27 PM »

Scott's map looks about right, but just give California to Clinton, and Alaska to Perot.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2014, 03:20:42 PM »

Carter already had his reputation as a total failure as a president by 1992.  I don't think Democrats, much less a national electorate, would be up to giving him a second trip around the merry-go-round.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2014, 12:14:56 PM »



Maybe I'm overestimating Bush's performance somewhat, but I don't see how Carter could do much better than this.



Carter - 34.2 - 271
Bush - 33.9 - 157
Perot - 30.7 - 110
Other - 1.2

Perot overperforms his actual '92 results outside of the South - people are even more disillusioned with their choices.  Carter only hits 50% in GA, AR, LA, and WV; 45% in TN, NC, SC, KY, MS, AL, NY, MA, RI, MD; 40% in TX, FL, MO, OK, OH, IL. He manages 35-40% in CA, MI, WI, IN, VA, NJ, DE, PA, and CT but still loses them.  

...no.
Your map looks about right, though I have Vermont flipping from Bush to Carter due to the fact that it did trend heavily towards the Democrats throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,665
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2014, 10:13:53 PM »



Pres. George HW Bush/VP Dan Quayle  42% 338 
Fmr Pres. Jimmy Carter/Gov. Mario Cuomo  35% 197
Citizen Ross Perot/Vice Adm. James Stockdale  22% 3
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,503
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2014, 09:43:24 PM »



Bush (R)      45%  273 EV
Carter (D)    44%  265 EV
Perot (I)         8%     0 EV

I believe that folks who were cool to Bush would have not switched to Perot if Carter were the candidate.  People got down on Carter and stayed that way.
Logged
TX Conservative Dem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2014, 04:35:15 PM »

I'm going to bet Carter somehow pulls a Nixon-style comeback and wins the Democratic nomination over Clinton in 1992.

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 12 queries.