Do you really think MS would be a Dem pick up...

[Del Tachi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

This may be the dumbest post I've ever seen on this site.

A state that had a 75% Democratic house delegation as recently as 2011 is a "one party" state?

Why don't you take your pointers from the folks who actually live here?

Of course you know more about your state's political lean than I do. And sure, I'm willing to bet that Mississippi's political climate is a lot more complex than the simplified version I off-handedly described.

But since 1984, the Presidential election results have been nearly identical, election after election, with (mostly) the same counties voting for the same party. Are you saying that there isn't a pattern to be seen here, based on the historical makeup of the geographic regions of your state?

That pattern is only exists in presidential elections, and this would make sense considering that the national Republican and Democratic parties have been sorting themselves along the left-to-right continuum and neither party seriously contests Mississippi in presidential elections.  Even then, we can see that Bill Clinton and even Michael Dukakis did considerably better in certain areas of the state that Obama did quite poorly in even though he won a higher percentage of the statewide vote.  If you're in for a hoot, look at the 1964 presidential county map for Mississippi.  These areas of ancestral Democratic strength in the state (even at the presidential level) are also the places where Childers could play the best.

Much more apt maps to look at would be those of recent gubernatorial or senatorial elections.  The 2003 and 2007 gubernatorial maps, as well as the 2008 senatorial map between Wicker and Musgrove, does show some strength on the Democrats part.   

[GaussLaw]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.

Could you link me to that poll please IceSpear?

[IceSpear]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.

Could you link me to that poll please IceSpear?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mississippi_senate_race.html

[GaussLaw]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.

Could you link me to that poll please IceSpear?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mississippi_senate_race.html

Thanks.  We need another PPP poll to see what's changed...2013 polls are iffy.

[VPH]

McDaniel is favored, but it's pretty easy to see him making an Akin-level gaffe.

a lot of the stuff from his radio show is pretty akin-like. Dems just have to spin it.