Why do people assume Jeb would make FL uncompetitive?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

People keep saying that FL is solid for Jeb Bush if he's the nominee. Jeb has failed to lead in a single poll in FL thus far. I realize we're 2 years out, but if Jeb were such a hero in FL shouldn't he at least get the state to undecided status, instead of Hillary numbers remaining solid in the 49-53% range? Even during Hillary's slump in the polls late last year she still lead him 47-45. I challenge the idea that he is a lock for the state, or a hero to FL voters. Maybe I'm clueless about FL politics, but I don't think 56% was that impressive for a FL GOP governor in 2002.

[IceSpear]

FL is certainly no lock for Jeb, though I expect him to close the gap there if he actually becomes the nominee.

In the most recent Quinnipiac poll he trails Hillary by 8, whereas Ryan and Cruz trail by 20 and 26 points respectively. That's a pretty big difference, so Jeb definitely has a lot of strength there.

[Likely Voter]

Another thread decrying something that no one is saying...certainly not any consensus

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Another thread decrying something that no one is saying...certainly not any consensus

It has been said on this forum on several occasions.

[Donerail]

Because Paul Ryan is not going to lose Florida by 20 points. Rubio is not going to lose by 12, and Jeb certainly isn't going to lose by 8. It's ridiculous to rely on polls from now to project an election over two years from now. Gut feeling is that Jeb wins Florida, and that's about as reliable as today's polls.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Because Paul Ryan is not going to lose Florida by 20 points. Rubio is not going to lose by 12, and Jeb certainly isn't going to lose by 8. It's ridiculous to rely on polls from now to project an election over two years from now. Gut feeling is that Jeb wins Florida, and that's about as reliable as today's polls.

Of course not. I'm not even saying Jeb wouldn't be favored. I've just seen people saying there's no way he loses it and that he's very popular there. I think if that were the case some evidence would have materialized by now.

[Donerail]

Because Paul Ryan is not going to lose Florida by 20 points. Rubio is not going to lose by 12, and Jeb certainly isn't going to lose by 8. It's ridiculous to rely on polls from now to project an election over two years from now. Gut feeling is that Jeb wins Florida, and that's about as reliable as today's polls.

Of course not. I'm not even saying Jeb wouldn't be favored. I've just seen people saying there's no way he loses it and that he's very popular there. I think if that were the case some evidence would have materialized by now.

54/33 is pretty popular.

[IceSpear]

Because Paul Ryan is not going to lose Florida by 20 points. Rubio is not going to lose by 12, and Jeb certainly isn't going to lose by 8. It's ridiculous to rely on polls from now to project an election over two years from now. Gut feeling is that Jeb wins Florida, and that's about as reliable as today's polls.

Of course not. I'm not even saying Jeb wouldn't be favored. I've just seen people saying there's no way he loses it and that he's very popular there. I think if that were the case some evidence would have materialized by now.

54/33 is pretty popular.

So is 58-37.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Because Paul Ryan is not going to lose Florida by 20 points. Rubio is not going to lose by 12, and Jeb certainly isn't going to lose by 8. It's ridiculous to rely on polls from now to project an election over two years from now. Gut feeling is that Jeb wins Florida, and that's about as reliable as today's polls.

Of course not. I'm not even saying Jeb wouldn't be favored. I've just seen people saying there's no way he loses it and that he's very popular there. I think if that were the case some evidence would have materialized by now.

54/33 is pretty popular.

I'll concede that point, but those numbers won't necessarily translate into votes. I still find his electoral history in FL relatively unimpressive for someone considered to be strongly favored in the state, 14 years after his last election no less.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Seriously, people, general election polls at this stage are waste of time. At this time before 2008, McCain has been leading Obama in every single state sans Illinois and Hawaii.

[heatmaster]

How well Jeb did in 2002 (btw winning 56% is pretty impressive in a competitive state like Florida). I recall Nixon in 1968 carried California,  despite losing the governor's race in '62. It didn't matter with voters in that election & I doubt how well Jeb did in '02 will mean little in the final analysis. After 8 years of hype with Obama, Jeb if he's the nominee will represent the opportunity to move on. Oh and Democrats should not be presuming that the Bush brand name is as toxic as Obama could be in 2016. Remember the old adage, "I'm not my brother's keeper"

[Bull Moose Base]

After 8 years of hype with Obama, Jeb if he's the nominee will represent the opportunity to move on. Oh and Democrats should not be presuming that the Bush brand name is as toxic as Obama could be in 2016. Remember the old adage, "I'm not my brother's keeper"

How carefully did you read that story?

[IceSpear]

Seriously, people, general election polls at this stage are waste of time. At this time before 2008, McCain has been leading Obama in every single state sans Illinois and Hawaii.

Obama also had very low name recognition (notice the two states where he lead, were the ones who knew him best). In FL, both Hillary and Jeb (as well as Rubio and Ryan) are known quantities.

[IceSpear]

Jeb leads Biden by 9, trails Hillary by 6

Relevant poll.

[sg0508]

He did well as governor, but he was certainly not popular in the more Democratic areas of the state. Plus, he'll have the "Bush" label on him.  Also, given how quickly FL's demographics seem to evolve year to year, many Floridians are new and don't have any connection with him during his tenure.

[Donerail]

He did well as governor, but he was certainly not popular in the more Democratic areas of the state. Plus, he'll have the "Bush" label on him.  Also, given how quickly FL's demographics seem to evolve year to year, many Floridians are new and don't have any connection with him during his tenure.

Bush's main strength is his popularity in the more Democratic areas of the state - or at least among the Hispanic community. The man's a gringo aplatanado.