China Becoming a Democracy

[Frodo]

with a new democratic spring in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgzstan (sp?), and maybe Lebanon as well as the rest of the Middle East, what likelihood is there that the People's Republic of China will follow Taiwan and South Korea's path, and turn from its authoritarian one-man and one-party dictatorship to becoming a parliamentary democracy?  what factors need to be in place for a peaceful democratic revolution to sweep into China?

this question bears special significance given China's rise and ascencion to becoming not only a regional power in East Asia, but also even gaining global significance on par with the United States.     

[angus]

I seriously doubt it.  you need to stretch your mind around this just a bit more, lest we become like the hapless spaniards.  We'll no doubt lose our hegemonic grip on the world one day, and it will will no doubt be china that becomes the number one economic force in the world.  but you will be long dead by then.  so, too, will this childish notion of "democracy"

or, like spain in its heyday, you can continue to pour money into converting the world to your own way of thinking, thus hastening that moment when we are knocked off our economic perch.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

News Report
Pyongyang, the Democratic Republic of North Korea.

This great country realized that they have the name Democratic in their name. An election was help today, which had 10 million voters and the results are in.

The Pope got 50%
George W. Bush 30%
Franklin Delano Rossevelt 29.99999%
Kim Jong II 0.00001%

Kim Jong II said he is "mildly disappointed" in the results. "I thought someone else would vote for me". North Korea has threantened to invade Vatican City if they don't tell them whether the pope is still alive. 

[opebo]

I seriously doubt it.  you need to stretch your mind around this just a bit more, lest we become like the hapless spaniards.  We'll no doubt lose our hegemonic grip on the world one day, and it will will no doubt be china that becomes the number one economic force in the world.  but you will be long dead by then.  so, too, will this childish notion of "democracy"

or, like spain in its heyday, you can continue to pour money into converting the world to your own way of thinking, thus hastening that moment when we are knocked off our economic perch.

You are certainly correct that China shows no signs of being a democracy.  It is a rather repulsive culture in some respects.  And I also agree with you that the U.S. is wasting its time trying to force the world into its own rather misbegotten image - but I thought you supported the war in Iraq?

I think we should be working hard to become like post-Imperial Netherlands - prosperous, hedonistic, libertine, liberal, and yes, democratic.   

[AuH2O]

China will split up before it becomes a real superpower.

[Beet]

Actually, certain reviled third-world dictatorships have had success economically since WW2... Spain developed rapidly under Franco. Pinochet set off an economic boom in Chile (and was the first in the wave of economic conservatism). South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore developed under authoritarian governments. All of these countries except Singapore eventually became democratic, but not until their purchasing power GDP per capita reached around $10,000-$15,000 per year.

There are important theoretical reasons for this; while there are poor democracies, there are no real wealthy countries which have remained dictatorships. As people become wealthier, they have higher expectations and a higher sense of their own self-efficacy. They are less willing to be exploited. Troops are more reluctant to shoot at middle class people than poor people. For example Taiwan, with a similiar culture to China's, had its first presidential election in 1996, when its PPP GDP/cap was $14,700.

China's PPP GDP/cap is was approximately $5,000 in 2003 according to the CIA World Factbook, so the ratio of Taiwan's PPP GDP/cap at democratization to China's in 2003 was 2.94.  Assuming an average economic growth rate of 7% annually can be maintained, and a population growth rate of 0.6%, the PPP GDP/cap grows at 6.4% annually.

The goal is to solve  (1+.064)^n = 2.94. Now, in taking the natural log of both sides,
ln(2.94) = n ln(1.064), or n = ln(2.94) / ln(1.064) or
n = 17.38.

That means China should become a democracy some time around 2003 + 17 years, or 2020, assuming an average growth rate of 7% until then. Is this kind of analysis silly? No, I don't think so, given the theoretical evidence of democratization at a certain point of economic development across countries, and the fact that it's the best kind of prediction we can make at this point.

[TomC]

Let's look at a similar question: Is China turning its back on communism? The answer is mixed.

China is rejecting the policies of Mao Zedong and the Chinese who tried to copy the industrialist Soviet state, at least in economics. China is opening up its markets, allowing more private entrerprise and less state ownership of industry. It is accepting, with some peasant resentment of course, that these new entreprenuers might cause some inequity among the populace.

So China is easing its allegiance to die hard communist theory in economics, but in terms of political reforms, as we've seen in Russia, China has barely made any sort of change. The NPC, which meets annually like a convention,  does allow some dissent, but anything above, say 30% is very rare, and I feel certain the NPC (both Congress and the Party) is chosen carefully, so that much dissent will not occur.

Also, while state controlled TV doesn't contain any govt dissent, there are local papers that uncover govt corruption and editorialize against this corruption, though I think its entirely about local gov.

[angus]

but I thought you supported the war in Iraq?

surely you jest.  at least I'll assume that's the case until I decide that whatever venereal disease has taken your senses has also taken your sense of humor.

In response to the more serious post, from tcash101:  I think not.  Well, I think you're right about the rejection of Mao.   China is making the right noises to keep its own newspapers, and those of the West, and Middle West (or as we round eyes say, the Middle East) opining in the direction of the "failing dollar" and I agree that the real "dissent" will not occur, not for the reasons you state, but from a deeper stoicism beyond your immediate grasp.  and mine.  but I think I think, as americans are wont to do, you are confusing Freedom and Democracy.  Democracy will not, in our lifetimes (remember this when you are a very old man) rule china, but freedom will.

[angus]

on a more serious note, the wsj and others are pushing buying chinese currency.  anyone into that?  my wife actually has a big enough chunk of chinese cash, probably more liquid than I do us, even in real dollars, but I'm thinking of branching out into the chinese autos.  they're opening in Germany, of all places, in '06, and maybe in the US sometime around then too.  anyone think about investing in the chinese auto manufacturing firms?

[TomC]

 and I agree that the real "dissent" will not occur, not for the reasons you state, but from a deeper stoicism beyond your immediate grasp.  and mine. 

I'm not quite sure I gave any reasons but a summary of recent events and trends.

 but I think I think, as americans are wont to do, you are confusing Freedom and Democracy.  Democracy will not, in our lifetimes (remember this when you are a very old man) rule china, but freedom will.

I don't believe I confused a thing. I contrasted economic reforms and political reforms. I believe my comments reinforce what you say about freedom and democracy. I in fact did point out ways China is becoming more free and changed the focus of the thread's question because I do not believe they are becoming more democratic but are becoming more free. You just stated it in a different way.

[angus]

yeah, that's right.  I'm drunkish and I'm giving you a hard time.  anyway, what do you think of the chinese car-making industry in the near-term?

oh, yeah.  and not, it's should not be assumed that you don't believe, with all your chemical and metaphysical mind, that spreading "democracy" is the "right thing to do" anymore than pizarro believed whatever the hell he was doing was the right thing to do.  I'm just saying you'll call it, no it's democracy we're talking about, not the Greater Glory of God, or whatever the hell they were doing with those people, but anyway, no we're America.  We're into democracy.  Kneejerk with religious fervor.  Why israel?  It's the only democracy in that region, man, don't you get that?!  Yeah, I know, boss, I'm an american too.  We got Democracy.  But what we got is really big guns.  I got no problem with that.  Hell, technically I'm a registered republican.  But let's just have a reality check.  Now, on with the things we can do something about.  Comment on the chinese market.  forget that idealistic crap.

[Beet]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What about my serious post?

[angus]

your post, and your signature, are serious indeed.

yeah, I'm wondering what the hell to say about it.  but you're definitely onto something.  sh**t, I forgot to look see if you're a democrat or a republican, well nevermind, it doesn't matter.  I'll give you my standard nonpartisan rant.  oh, yeah.  I just looked down there.  math.  okay, mmmmmmm.  why are you doing the log?  seems like it should be an e-x^2 decay instead.  anyway, the case would still, more or less, hold.  yeah, you're doing that,considering  "freedom" or whatever the economists are calling that nowadays, Utility I think, and relating it to PPP.  yeah, you could say something like that, but there are far too many historical counterexamples, such as the Inca Empire, which was both socialistic and imperialistic, at the same time, but absorbing religions rather than supplanting them as the Westerners do.  And it points out, rather well, what I was saying about how We put upon the rest what we want.  I'm okay with all that, as I think it'll play out after I'm dead anyway, but now with the little boy and all, I start to think about the Demise of the Empire.  you know, progenesis and the consideration of motality and such.  so, on assumes all want to delay its demise.  debt reduction and withdrawal are a reasonable start.  with respect to china.  suck on them, don't let them suck on you. 

[angus]

jaruzelski and brezhnev on the wrong side of his holiness.  another leftist-authoritarina bites the dust.  Terra Pax.  Go JP2.

[Beet]

your post, and your signature, are serious indeed.

yeah, I'm wondering what the hell to say about it.  but you're definitely onto something.  sh**t, I forgot to look see if you're a democrat or a republican, well nevermind, it doesn't matter.  I'll give you my standard nonpartisan rant.  oh, yeah.  I just looked down there.  math.  okay, mmmmmmm.  why are you doing the log?  seems like it should be an e-x^2 decay instead.  anyway, the case would still, more or less, hold.  yeah, you're doing that,considering  "freedom" or whatever the economists are calling that nowadays, Utility I think, and relating it to PPP.  yeah, you could say something like that, but there are far too many historical counterexamples, such as the Inca Empire, which was both socialistic and imperialistic, at the same time, but absorbing religions rather than supplanting them as the Westerners do.  And it points out, rather well, what I was saying about how We put upon the rest what we want.  I'm okay with all that, as I think it'll play out after I'm dead anyway, but now with the little boy and all, I start to think about the Demise of the Empire.  you know, progenesis and the consideration of motality and such.  so, on assumes all want to delay its demise.  debt reduction and withdrawal are a reasonable start.  with respect to china.  suck on them, don't let them suck on you. 

Yes, good points, thank you. There are historical counterexamples to be sure, I think though that western ideas would spread around no matter if we tried to or not. They might spread around slower, but they still would spread around. Especially since the ideas and other things that people want come hand in hand, such as utility.

[The Duke]

on a more serious note, the wsj and others are pushing buying chinese currency.  anyone into that?  my wife actually has a big enough chunk of chinese cash, probably more liquid than I do us, even in real dollars, but I'm thinking of branching out into the chinese autos.  they're opening in Germany, of all places, in '06, and maybe in the US sometime around then too.  anyone think about investing in the chinese auto manufacturing firms?

Told ya like two months ago, man.  Buy Yuan (If you can).  What do they call it, A Stocks, the ones that foreigners can buy if they want to  ride the currency?

[angus]

yeah, I actually thought about you when I posted that question.  of course that's where to invest, and you can get A stocks.  My wife agrees on the yuan question, but she's loaded, by chinese standards, and, near the end of our lives when the Empire begins to show cracks, probably by US standards as well.  But I had to laugh out loud in distraction at both the question of china becoming a democracy, and the nationwide failure to recognize "democracy" and "capitalism" as our national religion that we feel we have the right, no the duty, to spread around the globe.  Shades of some 15th century conquistador, but with Dollars instead of Crufixes.  Anyway, the A stocks are out there for all to buy, and I'm just wondering whether anyone, besides a few well-placed Germans, have thought to look into that.  I test drove about 7 volvos last week at the local volvo dealership (birmingham) and it got me thinking about cars more.  Don't think I'll rush off to buy a chery or a zhonguo brand car, as I'm partial to German and Scandanavian cars, but I do think I'm ready to take a foreigners plunge into an emerging market.  My US stocks generally are doing well.  My foreign stocks not so well (they're all in OECD countries, though).  What about China?  you said it.  but the question still remains, what sector in china?

[opebo]

but I thought you supported the war in Iraq?

surely you jest.  at least I'll assume that's the case until I decide that whatever venereal disease has taken your senses has also taken your sense of humor.

No, I honestly assumed that you supported the war in Iraq, mostly based on your Republicanism and your self described 'nationalism'.  You don't?

By the way, China will not be 'free' - that is even less likely that it becoming democratic!

[angus]

well, it's nice to know that you've never actually read my 4200-plus rants.  I'd only thought you hypocritical and bigoted.  Now I see you're lazy as well.

[opebo]

well, it's nice to know that you've never actually read my 4200-plus rants.  I'd only thought you hypocritical and bigoted.  Now I see you're lazy as well.

Wow, so you're a potsmoking social liberal who's against the Iraq war.  What're you doing in the Religious Party?

[angus]

the_factor,
yeah, that's right, they'll spread.  for example, the chinese automakers are evidence of just that.  And clothing fashions, and food.  KFC, for example, is a very upscale place to eat in Shanghai and Nanjing.  (yeah, I know that seems weird to you and me.)  No doubt western ideas influence the East, just as surely as Eastern ideas influence us, and to a lesser extent, the English and Germans, but especially the americans, due to proximity and trade.  My point is that Richard Gere is a buddhist because he wants to be, I eat pork often, as always with sticks, because I'm sloppy and have trouble eating with a knife and fork.  None of these ideas are forced on us.  When you go in with the attitude, as every great European Empire, including our own, has done, that we have the duty to spread to the savages what we know to be right and true.  Whether it's Catholocism, the French Language, the English Culture, or Democratic Capitalism, the underlying imperium/imperative is the same:  they really need us.  And that's ultimately what crushes great empires.  Not that citizens of post-imperial powers have it all that bad.  Opebo and a handful of others do better during imperial periods, but the vast majority of us will be better off once we take our place among the mature nations of the world.  Still, I'm fairly nationalistic and hate to see us hasten the loss of economic, cultural, and military hegemony.  Having the biggest dick on the planet is a pretty good feeling, while it lasts.

[opebo]

Not that citizens of post-imperial powers have it all that bad.  Opebo and a handful of others do better during imperial periods, but the vast majority of us will be better off once we take our place among the mature nations of the world. 

Actually, angus, it is the Scandianavian, Dutch, German, Belgian, Swiss  sex tourists who do well in Southeast Asia.  The American is but a poor cousin with a debauched currency.  The Euro holders - many of whom never had empires, or who's empires were centuries ago - are the 'better off' in the international sex game. 

[Citizen James]

Back to the point at hand...

I see them as moving more in the direction of an olgiarchy than a democracy right now.  One of the keys to a successful democracy is a solid educational system - once people are better suited to thinking for themselves, it's hard to put the Genie back in the bottle.

Right now, only the elites are well educated.  And the regime showed that they were quite willing to brutally and publicly kill dissenters at the tien a mein massacre.   I suppose there might be some survivors or sympatisers who are biding their time - and they are probably China's best hope for a sort of Gorbachev style peristroka which would move toward democracy.

Otherwise, the alternatives are that someone institutes widespread education (not all that needed if they can profit from low-skilled labor), or they eventually colapse under a combination of overpopulation and the widespread inefficency and corruption that accompanies the totalitarian regime.   And that would be very, very, ugly.

[opebo]

they eventually colapse under a combination of overpopulation ...

Actually China's population growth rate is very low and declining rapidly.  Their number one problem, like most of the world, in future, will be an aging population, not excess population.

[Beet]

the_factor,
yeah, that's right, they'll spread.  for example, the chinese automakers are evidence of just that.  And clothing fashions, and food.  KFC, for example, is a very upscale place to eat in Shanghai and Nanjing.  (yeah, I know that seems weird to you and me.)  No doubt western ideas influence the East, just as surely as Eastern ideas influence us, and to a lesser extent, the English and Germans, but especially the americans, due to proximity and trade.  My point is that Richard Gere is a buddhist because he wants to be, I eat pork often, as always with sticks, because I'm sloppy and have trouble eating with a knife and fork.  None of these ideas are forced on us.  When you go in with the attitude, as every great European Empire, including our own, has done, that we have the duty to spread to the savages what we know to be right and true.  Whether it's Catholocism, the French Language, the English Culture, or Democratic Capitalism, the underlying imperium/imperative is the same:  they really need us.  And that's ultimately what crushes great empires.  Not that citizens of post-imperial powers have it all that bad.  Opebo and a handful of others do better during imperial periods, but the vast majority of us will be better off once we take our place among the mature nations of the world.  Still, I'm fairly nationalistic and hate to see us hasten the loss of economic, cultural, and military hegemony.  Having the biggest dick on the planet is a pretty good feeling, while it lasts.

Religion, language, and culture were nationalistic ideas, not economic ones. Empires are built on economics and social institutions. America is trying to expand those economics and institutions through globalization. We are not nationalist in the European sense, and so up until 2001, Anthony Kennedy's theory didn't apply because we weren't expending more on military to do it. But even now in 99% of cases, the economics and institutions exported themselves, which is what was so magical. We now have the U.N., World Bank, I.M.F., the dollar, Wall Street, capitalism, democracy... the institutions of the American empire. Let's push it as far as it goes.