Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think it leans towards the Republicans right now, but just barely.

[SWE]

I'd give Democrats maybe a 55% chance of holding the Senate

[Maxwell]

Narrowly Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still think it'll be a 50-50 Senate at the end of the day.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Republicans, unless the Tea Party screws things up for us again with their candidates.  If they do, then Democrats.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'd give Democrats maybe a 55% chance of holding the Senate

Based on what?  Because nearly all signs currently point to Republicans taking over.

[Never]

I think the Republicans are somewhat favored at this point.

[free my dawg]

Gun to my head, the Republicans.

Won't go as far as to say that all signs point to them, but bar Tillis imploding (I don't know, kind of strikes me as a weak candidate), they should pick up the Senate.

[tmthforu94]

To this point, the GOP has avoided nominating terrible candidates and across the board, we have a pretty strong slate. Despite early troubles, our only vulnerable seats (KY and GA) are looking much better than they were a few months ago. South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost certain to flip in 2014, putting us at 48 seats. I am optimistic about Louisiana as it looks doubtful Landreiu can break 50%, and I highly doubt she can win a run-off unless the GOP has already won a majority. Cotton should be able to ultimately defeat Pryor and Tillis is leading Hagan - that right there puts us at 51 seats. Additionally, it looks like Alaska could go either way and we have made a race of it in both Iowa and Colorado, two states that weren't on very many people's radar a few months ago. Michigan also isn't entirely out of reach.

If I were to guess, the Republicans pick up 7 seats in November (SD,MT,WV,LA,AR,NC,AK), giving them 52 seats. Tempted to add Colorado, but want to see more polling first.

[Simfan34]

I'm sticking with the experts' analysis and not #ReadyForHillary hacks.

[free my dawg]

I'm sticking with the experts' analysis and not #ReadyForHillary hacks.

Experts don't have NC as Safe D, Michigan being a more likely pickup than Arkansas, and OR-Gov being as likely to flip as CO-Sen. This all just seems like really sh*tty math.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems, who must hold either AR or AK and either NC or La. And just because a Rassy poll has Pryor or Hagen or Grimes down by 6 it doesnt mean such. Nate Silver says the Dems will lose 3-5 seats but going beyond that is a coin flip. Grimes and Nunn are also aint out of it.

[ShadowRocket]

Still think it'll be a 50-50 Senate at the end of the day.

I agree with this.

[TDAS04]

I'd give Democrats maybe a 55% chance of holding the Senate

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

50-50 is the most likely option right now, assuming the economy continues to do reasonably well until November.  If it is 51-49, I think the Democrats have a better chance of being the 51 than the Republicans, but the Republicans are more likely to have a 52-48 margin than the Democrats.  Of course if the GOP hadn't effed up in its candidate selections in both 2010 and 2012 thanks to the Tea Party, the GOP would be a lock to take control of the Senate this year, assuming they didn't already have it.

[IceSpear]

I'm sticking with the experts' analysis and not #ReadyForHillary hacks.

Silver says it's essentially a toss up with a very slight GOP edge, so not at all unreasonable to vote for Democratic control. Looks like you're the hack here.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/

[rbt48]

If it ends up 50-50, I wonder if Manchin might pull a Jeffords, or even align with the Republicans for organizational purposes?

[NewYorkExpress]

If it ends up 50-50, I wonder if Manchin might pull a Jeffords, or even align with the Republicans for organizational purposes?

He might, and King theoretically (although he probably won't) might too. At the same time Collins may pull a Jeffords and go the the other way.

[ElectionsGuy]

Narrowly Republicans.

[Frodo]

Republicans -and I am sticking to my Senate predictions. 

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I'm sticking with the experts' analysis and not #ReadyForHillary hacks.

Silver says it's essentially a toss up with a very slight GOP edge, so not at all unreasonable to vote for Democratic control. Looks like you're the hack here.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/

And plus, that Washington Post forecast is a load of crap. Whoever put that map together sucks at their job.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Republicans will win back the United States Senate, ending the Democrats' 8-year streak by picking up the following Senate seats:
1. South Dakota (Open)
2. West Virginia (Open)
3. Arkansas: I just see anti-incumbent sentiment dooming Pryor: backlash against the AR Dems is too strong (see GOPers taking out Lincoln in 2010, winning several down-ballot statewide offices that year and winning both chambers of the General Assembly in 2012).
4. North Carolina
5. Montana
6. Iowa (Open)
7. Michigan (Open): Snyder could have coattails to help Land cross the finish line

[Never]

Republicans will win back the United States Senate, ending the Democrats' 8-year streak by picking up the following Senate seats:
1. South Dakota (Open)
2. West Virginia (Open)
3. Arkansas: I just see anti-incumbent sentiment dooming Pryor: backlash against the AR Dems is too strong (see GOPers taking out Lincoln in 2010, winning several down-ballot statewide offices that year and winning both chambers of the General Assembly in 2012).
4. North Carolina
5. Montana
6. Iowa (Open)
7. Michigan (Open): Snyder could have coattails to help Land cross the finish line

Snyder might have coattails to help Land, but that seems doubtful at this point. I'd say that Cassidy would defeat Landrieu in Louisiana and Gardner would defeat Udall in Colorado before Land wins.

[Del Tachi]

If Cochran wins, Republicans.  If McDaniel wins, Democrats.