Which Senators were first elected in races were initially safe R/D on paper

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other words which Senators who have served sometime between 2000 and 2014 were basically written-off for most of the campaign during their first successful Senate race, but won against the odds by being great candidates, running strong campaigns, opponents imploding, etc.  I think the most interesting are ones who beat a sitting incumbent, but that's just me.

Some examples I thought of are Jim Webb (he did everything right and Allan did everything wrong), Scott Scott Brown, and Jeff Merkley.  Donnelly doesn't qualify since plenty of folks thought he could be competitive against Mourdock if the latter won his primary.  IIRC, Cantwell, Heitkamp, Warren, Franken, Stabenow, and Schumer were initially considered unlikely to win, but I don't remember how unlikely (i.e. were any of them actually written-off for a good chunk of the campaign).

[Miles]

NC 2008: Bigger names (e.g. Brad Miller) were passing on challenging Dole.

WI 2008 also comes to mind.

[dmmidmi]

Stabenow, and Schumer were initially considered unlikely to win, but I don't remember how unlikely (i.e. were any of them actually written-off for a good chunk of the campaign).

Spence Abraham was never considered particularly safe: http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/04/us/2000-campaign-michigan-race-battle-for-senate-themes-mirror-national-contest.html

D'Amato was never in particularly good shape, either: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York,_1998#Polling_3

[windjammer]

Not sure if this counts, but Chris Coons had no chance until Mike Castle lost his primary.

I think this counts. I remember basically all analysts (Cook,...) had Delaware as Likely Gop.

And no one really expected the rise of I'm not a witch .

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Prior to the year 2004, wasn't Daschle considered untouchable in South Dakota?

[dmmidmi]

Prior to the year 2004, wasn't Daschle considered untouchable in South Dakota?

Thune came within a few hundred votes of beating Tim Johnson two years prior.

[Indy Texas]

In other words which Senators who have served sometime between 2000 and 2014 were basically written-off for most of the campaign during their first successful Senate race, but won against the odds by being great candidates, running strong campaigns, opponents imploding, etc.  I think the most interesting are ones who beat a sitting incumbent, but that's just me.

Some examples I thought of are Jim Webb (he did everything right and Allan did everything wrong), Scott Scott Brown, and Jeff Merkley.  Donnelly doesn't qualify since plenty of folks thought he could be competitive against Mourdock if the latter won his primary.  IIRC, Cantwell, Heitkamp, Warren, Franken, Stabenow, and Schumer were initially considered unlikely to win, but I don't remember how unlikely (i.e. were any of them actually written-off for a good chunk of the campaign).

I don't recall Gordon Smith's seat ever being considered "Safe R." It was very apparent that he would have to run as far away from George W. Bush and the national GOP as possible in order to keep his seat and he was a Republican in a state that isn't as friendly to Republicans as it was 15 years ago.

I've heard/read that Spencer Abraham was considered an incredibly ineffective senator. He was so avoidant of people on Capitol Hill that he allegedly would hide in various rooms in his offices to prevent his own staff from knowing he was there. I don't know how much of that was actually known and talked about during his reelection campaign, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other words which Senators who have served sometime between 2000 and 2014 were basically written-off for most of the campaign during their first successful Senate race, but won against the odds by being great candidates, running strong campaigns, opponents imploding, etc.  I think the most interesting are ones who beat a sitting incumbent, but that's just me.

Some examples I thought of are Jim Webb (he did everything right and Allan did everything wrong), Scott Scott Brown, and Jeff Merkley.  Donnelly doesn't qualify since plenty of folks thought he could be competitive against Mourdock if the latter won his primary.  IIRC, Cantwell, Heitkamp, Warren, Franken, Stabenow, and Schumer were initially considered unlikely to win, but I don't remember how unlikely (i.e. were any of them actually written-off for a good chunk of the campaign).

I don't recall Gordon Smith's seat ever being considered "Safe R." It was very apparent that he would have to run as far away from George W. Bush and the national GOP as possible in order to keep his seat and he was a Republican in a state that isn't as friendly to Republicans as it was 15 years ago.

I've heard/read that Spencer Abraham was considered an incredibly ineffective senator. He was so avoidant of people on Capitol Hill that he allegedly would hide in various rooms in his offices to prevent his own staff from knowing he was there. I don't know how much of that was actually known and talked about during his reelection campaign, though.

I thought the consensus was that Merkley had no shot.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Prior to the year 2004, wasn't Daschle considered untouchable in South Dakota?

Thune came within a few hundred votes of beating Tim Johnson two years prior.

**slaps forehead**

Of course.

[SWE]

Daschle was leading by about 7 points in early 2004

[Antonio the Sixth]

Biden in 1972 comes to mind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tammy Baldwin v Thommy Thompson

Scott Brown v Coakley

Webb v Allen.

[MaxQue]

The two more obvious answers are Kay Hagan and Jim Webb. The latter gave control of the Senate to the Democrat over pretty much a single word. Without "macaca", Allen would probably have evated the heavy scrutiny he got after, which his PR team wasn't able to deal with. The former was not expected to win (she was a second-tier candidate, the first-tier candidates decided to wait for Burr seat in 2010), but Dole did a terrible campaign and reacted very badly to her quickly decreasing lead, which led the the terrible "There is no God" ad, which was the last nail in her campaign and made Hagan win by the biggest lead in an NC Senate election for years (through, Burr did better in 2010 I think).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Begich.  Yes, he had a nice early lead in the polls, but did anyone really take his chances seriously until the real votes started coming in?  He probably wouldn't have won in most other years, Stevens on the ballot or not.

Cantwell is another one if the closeness of her first Senate election is of any indication.

NC 2008: Bigger names (e.g. Brad Miller) were passing on challenging Dole.

WI 2008 also comes to mind.

You mean 2010?

[badgate]

Mark Begich
Chris Coons
Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Ted Cruz (in R primary)