Candidates from small parties almost always overperfom in Atlasian polls because by far most of their voters are usually highly active players instead of zombies. Therefore, I think it's fair to say that DemPGH/Windjammer probably have a sizable lead and are heavily favored to win.
i think the federalists will fully mobilise their own zombie machine for sirnick too.
I don't know what the Federalists are doing but since there are prominent Federalists who have endorsed the Labor ticket I don't think this will happen.