What is the GOP's ceiling in regards to the Hispanic vote in 2016?

[Matty]

I think it would be a small miracle if they get anything over 28%.

[eric82oslo]

I think a Bush/Sandoval, Bush/Martinez or even Bush/Rubio ticket could get them above 30% or in some cases even above 35%.

A Santorum/Palin ticket could be close to the worst possible ticket for them. Such a ticket would probably not even get them to 20%. Not even sure they would make 15% actually.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

[Suburbia]

With the Cantor defeat from David Brat and the immigration reform legislation, I don't think the GOP can do better than 30% with Hispanics. But also, I don't think all Hispanics care about immigration reform, they may view jobs, health care, defense spending as important issues too.

Good GOP Ticket
30% or more

GOP Ticket that is hostile to Immigration Reform
25% or less

[eric82oslo]

With the Cantor defeat from David Brat and the immigration reform legislation, I don't think the GOP can do better than 30% with Hispanics. But also, I don't think all Hispanics care about immigration reform, they may view jobs, health care, defense spending as important issues too.

Hispanics main concerns are, apparently:

1. Education
2. Economy/jobs
3. Health care
4. Immigration reform

Source: Pew Hispanic Center

[Ogre Mage]

What I have read is that immigration is a "gateway" issue for a large number of Hispanic voters.  Supporting it won't automatically win Hispanic support, but if a candidate is perceived as hostile on the issue, they get tuned out.  And the GOP has done nothing to improve its standing with Latinos.

So long as the House GOP continues to hold up immigration reform (and particularly after Cantor's defeat I see no reason why that would change) I would guesstimate that 35% is the hard ceiling for a GOP Presidential candidate.

I'd also say that 29% would be roughly an average performance for a generic GOP candidate.  McCain did a bit better than average, getting 31%.  Romney, hobbled by a hardline anti-immigration stance and comments about "self-deportation" and "I'm running for office for Pete's sake, I can't have illegals" did worse at 27%.

[TarHeelDem]

30% or a few points higher sounds about right to me.

[OkThen]

I don't see anyone hitting 44% like Bush did in 2004. I would say about 40% is the absolute ceiling, but that would require a lot of things to go the GOP's way.

[Non Swing Voter]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

[Meursault]

Put your willy away. No Republican is coming close to 40% of Hispanics in 2016.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Don't bother with non swing voter, he's a troll. Out him on ignore.
Anyway, 40% under the best circumstances.

[Non Swing Voter]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

I don't read GOP troll posts.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

It's very debatable that any Republican in a national race has done as well as 40% (maybe Eisenhower or someone from before records really exist). The official exits for '04 gave Bush 44% but that has been debunked in lot of places; as this article points out, most experts believe it was closer to 35% to 37%.

Michael Dukakis - arguably the quintessential mediocre Democrat - got 70% of the Hispanic vote; Mondale got 66% (this is according to the Roper Center site). The Democrat who apparently did worst with Hispanics was Carter in '80, a very unpopular president in a three-way race who underperformed badly with a number of blocs (he barely won Jews and union members). And even then Reagan only got 37%.

So you basically need a 1980 situation (double-digit inflation, recession, Kennedy primary challenge, independent candidate, hostage crisis) or a 2004 rally-around-the-flag climate (which rarely benefits a challenger) to get the Republican marginally past 35%.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

I don't read GOP troll posts.

Then do not respond to them, please and thank you.

[Never]

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

It's very debatable that any Republican in a national race has done as well as 40% (maybe Eisenhower or someone from before records really exist). The official exits for '04 gave Bush 44% but that has been debunked in lot of places; as this article points out, most experts believe it was closer to 35% to 37%.

Michael Dukakis - arguably the quintessential mediocre Democrat - got 70% of the Hispanic vote; Mondale got 66% (this is according to the Roper Center site). The Democrat who apparently did worst with Hispanics was Carter in '80, a very unpopular president in a three-way race who underperformed badly with a number of blocs (he barely won Jews and union members). And even then Reagan only got 37%.

So you basically need a 1980 situation (double-digit inflation, recession, Kennedy primary challenge, independent candidate, hostage crisis) or a 2004 rally-around-the-flag climate (which rarely benefits a challenger) to get the Republican marginally past 35%.

Hm, I see what you are saying, and thank you very much for the LA Times piece. That article seemed to imply that Republican candidates who are stronger than their opponents will lift their numbers with Hispanics along with the rest of the population, as noted when seeing the victories of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

[RR1997]

The ceiling will probably be around 35-40% of the Hispanic vote, and the floor will be around 15-20% of the Hispanic vote.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

What would you consider a "mediocre Democrat," though?  Dennis Kucinich?

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

What would you consider a "mediocre Democrat," though?  Dennis Kucinich?

Martin O'Malley was the first individual who came to mind. Andrew Cuomo is also someone who I would consider to be a mediocre Democratic candidate, even though I personally think that he has done a acceptable job as Governor of New York. Joe Biden could run the risk of being a poor option; he appears to be a low-floor/normal-ceiling candidate.

It seems that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the Republican candidate will not be able to win 40% of the Hispanic vote, but if she doesn't run, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats could end up with a candidate who would allow Republicans to reach the ceiling I set for them with this demographic.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

33% with Hillary, 38% without Hillary, depending on the GOP candidate of course. Remember we are talking the ceiling or highest they can possibly get in the best of circumstances.