Predict Hillary's % in AR

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm assuming she can't do worse than Obama. Right now she leads all non-Huckabee GOP candidates in Arkansas, but that was true in late 2007/early 2008 as well and then she fell well below McCain.

[IceSpear]

45-48 against a decent candidate, against a mediocre one she probably wins it.

[Rockefeller GOP]

45-48 against a decent candidate, against a mediocre one she probably wins it.

I also think she carries it vs. Christie (who might prompt Tea Partiers to stay home, but I mostly agree with you.

[Never]

45-48 against a decent candidate, against a mediocre one she probably wins it.

I also think she carries it vs. Christie (who might prompt Tea Partiers to stay home, but I mostly agree with you.

Agreed.

Hillary might lose a few states like Arkasnas with about 45% of the vote, which is respectable for a Democrat.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I'm assuming she can't do worse than Obama. Right now she leads all non-Huckabee GOP candidates in Arkansas, but that was true in late 2007/early 2008 as well and then she fell well below McCain.

Not much polling but she only trailed McCain in one poll on here.

45-50 makes sense to me.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

47%

[Lief 🗽]

She's going to win Arkansas. >50%

[henster]

She is way out of step with Arkansas's values from gay marriage to abortion and her deep ties to Obama and other liberal causes I don't see her carrying the state at all. I'd expect her to do slightly better or worse than John Kerry in 2004 but people are seriously overestimating her as a candidate and her overall standing in Arkansas.

[⛄]

The poll options are not suggestive at all. Nooooo....
Hillary will win Arkansas >60%, of course (provided not against Huck).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The poll options are not suggestive at all. Nooooo....
Hillary will win Arkansas >60%, of course (provided not against Huck).

I believe above 50% covers everything else...you can't seriously think 60% is possible.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a 49-47 loss for Hillary in Arkansas.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think it'd be close whether she wins it or loses it. I voted 49-50% (which could still be a win).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

She can win it even against a strong candidate but it would be close none the less.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

She can win it even against a strong candidate but it would be close none the less.

Come on now. The state is ready to throw out Pryor for voting with Obama but Hillary is favored to win it? I don't deny that she could carry it in theory, but I think her ceiling is 47% against a decent candidate.

[Miles]

Here is a 49-47 loss for Hillary in Arkansas.

She'd win a few more counties in AR-01/AR-04, IMO. Bill lost Carroll county in 96 and barely won it in 92; I'd keep it R.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a 49-47 loss for Hillary in Arkansas.

She'd win a few more counties in AR-01/AR-04, IMO. Bill lost Carroll county in 96 and barely won it in 92; I'd keep it R.

Yeah, but there is a large liberal hippy presence in the county now.  The county seat issued civil unions back in I think 2006.

[Simfan34]

All that's necessary for her to win it is for Bill to make a few trips in the autumn.

[RogueBeaver]

Low 40s.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Low 40s.

Now that's just baseless.

[ElectionsGuy]

Low 40s.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Not a single poll has ever put Hillary in the low 40s. The lowest she's ever polled in the state is 43%.

[Never]

Not a single poll has ever put Hillary in the low 40s. The lowest she's ever polled in the state is 43%.

Some people might justifiably define 43% as low 40s...

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, 43-44% or so. I don't see polls 2 years out as terribly predictive.

[Fritz]

Not a single poll has ever put Hillary in the low 40s. The lowest she's ever polled in the state is 43%.

Some people might justifiably define 43% as low 40s...

40-43%- low 40's
44-46%- mid 40's
47-49%- high 40's

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Not a single poll has ever put Hillary in the low 40s. The lowest she's ever polled in the state is 43%.

Some people might justifiably define 43% as low 40s...

Barely low 40s. I referenced the 43% poll because it was her lowest percentage in any poll. It certainly hasn't been the average though, not to mention it was 6 years ago.