ISIS/ISIL make major gains in Iraq

[Mr. Morden]

The ISIL isn't going to take all of Iraq. A Shiite rump state will remain.

Which will include at least half the population of the country.

You could certainly have a years-long civil war in the mold of Syria (with the interesting difference that the existing regime is at least nominally democratic and friendly to the West…..but how long is that going to last?).  But yeah, no one's going to take over the whole country, unlike Vietnam.

[Mr. Morden]

Do these events push Kurdistan closer to independence?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27836520

[Mr. Morden]

Pentagon Sends Aircraft Carrier to Gulf.

Ironically, it's the USS George H.W. Bush.

In 1998, George HW Bush wrote that invading Iraq would have been stupid.

Presumably whatever military action the US is currently preparing for would involve dropping bombs, a la the Gulf War, not "invading".

[Mr. Morden]

How likely is it that Obsma can steal Iran from Putin's orbit?

Obama and Osama's secret lovechild?

[Mr. Morden]

What are the current odds that Baghdad will fall?

Zero.

Or rather, if it "falls", it would be to Shiite militias rather than ISIS.