If you could see the election result of just a single state, which would it be?

[retromike22]

A genie has given you a single wish, and that is to see a future Presidential election result from 2016. But..... you can only see the result of a single state.

If you had to pick right now, which state's result would you wish to see?

I would pick....

Arizona.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Missouri. Because we have no polls.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Virginia, as it tracks the national popular vote precicesly and will tell me who wins in 2016.

[Niemeyerite]

Florida.

[⛄]

I'm wavering between West Virginia and Arkansas.
Since a Hillary win in Arkansas is a given, I'd tend to West Virginia.

[Nichlemn]

I think Ohio, given how it's been such a consistent bellwether for decades and should remain so in 2016. With VA or FL, the states are unusual enough that it's possible for the result to be quite misleading.

[dmmidmi]

Ohio.

If Democrats win Ohio, they've likely won the election. If Republicans win Ohio, they have an extremely good chance of hitting 270.

[JRP1994]

Missouri

[Cranberry]

Ohio

It has just become a microcosmos of the country, and a good indicator of how the whole nation votes.

[Tender Branson]

ARK

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Ohio, but Virginia pulls a close 2nd.

[Senator Cris]

Pennsylvania and Florida.

[eric82oslo]

Arizona, with Texas as second option.

[LeBron]

Ohio since its voted for every Presidential winner since Nixon in 1960 and if Democrats do win a bellwether like Ohio, a state that has a slight 1 or 2 point advantage to the GOP, it probably indicates we have great chances in keeping Florida, flipping North Carolina and other 2012 states. Then all they need with Ohio is the other typical, safe Democratic holds (excluding NH), carry Nevada and we have the Presidency.

[Cryptic]

Probably Ohio, given its consistency as a bellwether.  A win by the Democrats means they've almost certainly won the election as there are almost no GOP paths to 270 without it.  A win by the GOP means they've achieved a vital piece of their electoral strategy and are either going to win or the race will be extremely close. 

Other states I'd consider seeing would be Virginia and Florida. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida...

I want to see if Democrats can continue to carry the state based on the I-4 corridor even if the black turnout potentially isn't as high throughout the state.  I'd also want to see if the Cuban vote continues to drift Democrat.

If Hillary wins Florida by a larger margin than Obama it will reveal serious issues for the GOP.

[sg0508]

Obama hanging onto Florida for a second time was in my opinion, very significant for the national landscape.  Romney's increase from McCain wasn't up to the national average and because of it, Obama won the 29 EVs.  While the statewide FL Democratic Party is a wreck, on the national level, the demographics overall seem to have finally shifted to the Democratic side.

I'll watch FL next time around.  VA is a close second.

[solarstorm]

arizona

[RR1997]

Ohio, since it is a bellwether state.

[Mister Mets]

Ohio's a bellweather, but it's also possible Republicans will go with someone from the state, which could skew results. Kasich might win the state by five, while losing the national vote.

Florida would also be telling, but a Rubio or Jeb might overperform there. Obviously, if Clinton wins by three she probably won the election. But if Jeb wins by five, it might not mean he won.

Pennsylvania's been trending less Democratic, but Bush won two elections without winning there.

At the moment, I'll pick VA due to its closeness to the popular vote in '08 and '12. A narrow election win might not reveal who won the presidency, although it would reveal a close election. A 3+ point win would make it a fairly safe bet.

[Kushahontas]

I'm wavering between West Virginia and Arkansas.
Since a Hillary win in Arkansas is a given, I'd tend to West Virginia.

stop

[Never]

I'm wavering between West Virginia and Arkansas.
Since a Hillary win in Arkansas is a given, I'd tend to West Virginia.

stop

Well said, Kushahontas.

Ohio's a bellweather, but it's also possible Republicans will go with someone from results, which could skew results. Kasich might lose the state by five, while losing the national vote.

Florida would also be telling, but a Rubio or Jeb might overperform there. Obviously, if Clinton wins by three she probably won the election. But if Jeb wins by five, it might not mean he won.

Pennsylvania's been trending less Democratic, but Bush won two elections without winning there.

At the moment, I'll pick VA due to its closeness to the popular vote in '08 and '12. A narrow election win might not reveal who won the presidency, but a 3+ point win would make it a fairly safe bet.

I basically agree with all of this. I would pick Virginia as well. It seems like a useful result that could let us draw some solid conclusions about the national results, while Ohio and Florida could be more easily swayed.

I will add that if we only had the 2012 result from Florida back in 2010, it could have been possible to draw some faulty conclusions from it (like saying that the national election was a nail-biter, when that was not true by any stretch), though it seems that some of the cooler heads on Atlas would have been able to utilize Florida's results.

[BlueSwan]

Ohio, without a shadow of a doubt.

Republicans winning the election without Ohio is not gonna happen.

A solid GOP win in Ohio means that the republican candidate has probably won.

A narrow GOP win in Ohio means that the election is extremely close, with the republican candidate likely winning.

Virginia seems to be a popular option in this thread. I would argue that it is a bad option because it changed so dramatically between 2004 and 2008. We basically don't know if the change was mainly about the Obama campaign being effective in Virginia or mainly about changing demographics. It probably was a bit of both and we simply don't know if for instance a Hillary campaign will get out the black vote to the same extent or whether to which extent the shift to the left in Virginia will continue.

So let's say we see the result of Virginia and it is DEM +2. That will tell me pretty much nothing. Maybe the shift to the left has continued and the national landscape is now GOP +2? Maybe the Hillary campaign is less effective in Virginia than the Obama campaign and the national lansscape is DEM +4? We simply don't know.

Ohio, on the other hand, has proven to be a very reliable bellwhether and there is no particular reason to believe that that is about to change or that there are any major demographic shifts going on.

Florida is another possible pick. Even more so than in Ohio, it is virtually impossible to imagine a GOP win without Florida. However, if the GOP candiate wins Florida by 2 points we really have no clue about who won the election other than that it must have been pretty close.

I fail to see how we'll get a better bellwhether for 2016 than Ohio.

[pbrower2a]

Angle #1:

Ohio. Democrats can win without it, but they seem to lose without it. A microcosm of America, which explains why it swings.

Angle #2:

Indiana. It is almost invariably R, but if it is less than 12% away for the Democrat, then the Democrat is going to win. 

Angle #3:

Iowa. Republicans can win without it, but Democrats must win it decisively to have a real chance of winning nationwide.

Angle #4:

Virginia, formerly a reliably-R state in Presidential elections. There are few ways for the Republicans to win the Presidency while losing Virginia.

Angle #5: Florida. In a close race in which its electoral votes matter, who is counting the votes?

[politicallefty]

Ohio, without a doubt. In fact, you could show me just Northeast Ohio, particularly Lake and Stark Counties.