What counties are likely to flip?

[Sol]

Assuming it's a modestly close election either way?

From R->D
Anne Arundell County, MD
Frederick County, MD
McHenry County, GA
Summit County, UT
Lake County, OH
Orange County, CA
Deschutes County, OR
Spokane County, WA
Whitman County, WA

The first four are the most likely.

From D->R
Elliott County, KY
Woodruff County, AR
Various Bush->Obama Deep South Counties

[Rockefeller GOP]

You seriously think Elliot County is going to go against Hillary after voting for Obama twice?...  Haha, not seein' that.  Hillary would likely pick up several Arkansas, WV, Kentucky and Tennessee counties that refused to back Obama.

[Sol]

You seriously think Elliot County is going to go against Hillary after voting for Obama twice?...  Haha, not seein' that.  Hillary would likely pick up several Arkansas, WV, Kentucky and Tennessee counties that refused to back Obama.

I dunno- I think all the talk of a Hillary landslide in Blue Dog areas is rather overplayed. And Elliott will flip at some point, and likely permanently.

[IceSpear]

You seriously think Elliot County is going to go against Hillary after voting for Obama twice?...  Haha, not seein' that.  Hillary would likely pick up several Arkansas, WV, Kentucky and Tennessee counties that refused to back Obama.

I dunno- I think all the talk of a Hillary landslide in Blue Dog areas is rather overplayed. And Elliott will flip at some point, and likely permanently.

On what basis? Polls show Hillary ahead of all Republicans in Arkansas (except Huckabee), and you think she'd do worse than Obama there?

[Non Swing Voter]

Anne Arundel seems likely.  If I recall correctly that county voted slightly in favor of legalizing gay marriage in the last election.

Maryland has just gotten absurdly democratic.  All the ads that spillover from their primaries are about which candidate likes Obama the most.

[Sol]

Bumping in light of the 2014 results.

Anyway, McHenry County flipping seems likelier by the day.

[Clermont County GOPer]

I think my home county of Niagara, NY is likely to flip from D->R

[Devils30]

R to D possibilities

GA: Henry- 2014 results make it pretty clear this is happening
SC: Florence (not sure of latest demographic changes but a minor D favorable one does it)
NC: Lenoir, New Hanover (both could but may not)
PA: Chester, Berks and possibly Fayette with Hillary
OH: Scioto, Ross, Pike with Hillary

D to R:
KY: Elliott (but I can see Hillary pulling it out by 5-10%)
FL: Jefferson (lower black turnout may hurt Hillary but it's pretty inelastic so Ds may hold)

[henster]

In Illinois, I can see Kane and DuPage flipping. In Indiana, Porter will flip if the Republican wins.


If a Republican wins against a non-Hillary Democrat, Will and Lake (IL) could flip if the GOPer's national margin is big enough (Will and Lake are bellweather-ish, but with a Dem lean).

Jefferson in Colorado could flip as well if the Republican wins.

Those are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head.

Udall still carried JeffCo despite losing by 2.

[pikachu]

In a GOP victory, I can see Staten Island, Somerset County, NJ, and Salem Country, NJ flipping. Even in a close Democratic victory, I could see Bucks, PA finally going to the GOP, though I can also see Chester and Berks going back to the Dems. (Bucks and Chester/Berks won't both flip though)

[Mr. Illini]

For Illinois...

In a Dem win, DuPage and Kane will go back to R while Lake and Will stay D.

In a GOP win, DuPage, Kane, and Will will flip to R while Lake stays D.

It is of my opinion that my home county will have a strong lean Dem in Presidential elections for the time being.

Downstate, expect Hillary to pick up Madison, Gallatin, Calhoun, and Pulaski counties against Generic R.

Expect her to win a few less counties in the northwest, though. Henry and Mercer won't be as friendly to her as they were to Obama.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Ste. Genevieve County, MO will almost certainly flip blue again, especially with Hillary. Wouldn't be surprised if she won Iron, Washington and maybe some other counties in the Lead Belt, and possibly Pemiscot in the Bootheel.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think some more urbanized counties in Kentucky might flip. Sooner or later, Woodford will flip. Probably not in 2016, but it's coming.

Clark OH is a flip. Probably Kanawha WV too.

[Alcon]

For WA, I'm a little dubious on Whitman.  It's divided between a Democratic university town and largely very Republican agricultural towns.  The agricultural towns are declining, but I'm not sure Clinton will be as strong in college towns as even Obama 2012.  College turnout matters a lot.  Whitman voted Bush +15, Bush +6, Obama +5, and Romney +3.

Spokane County has somewhat weird voting patterns.  It's highly polarized.  It was a virtual tie in 1988, then voted Clinton +6 and Clinton +3.  It swung Republican, following growth patterns and working-class white vote, during the Bush years, giving Bush +9 and Bush +12.  Then Obama almost won it (McCain +1) and, interestingly, didn't suffer greatly in 2012 (Romney +6).  This one is a hard read for me.  Clinton is probably a marginally better candidate than Obama, but this is fundamentally a Republican-leaning county, and growth isn't going to benefit the Democrats until Spokane starts doing better economically.

[bobloblaw]

Orange County is still away from flipping

[bobloblaw]

Why arent counties in Western PA or SE Ohio listed?

[pbrower2a]

In a D win:

The big one -- Maricopa, Arizona Greater Phoenix. This could swing Arizona.

Orange, California
Fort Bend, Texas.
Kenedy, Texas. (The single 'n' is right, and there is a joke in that selection).
Tippecanoe, Indiana
Kent, Michigan
Lenawee, Michigan
Jackson, Michigan
Chippewa, Michigan
Salt Lake, Utah
Summit, Utah
Grand, Utah
Chester, Pennsylvania
Berks, Pennsylvania
Scioto, Ohio
Oneida, New York
Kanawha, West Virginia

R win:

Fresno, California
Harris, Texas
Bexar, Texas
St. Joseph, Indiana
Calhoun, Michigan
Eaton, Michigan
Shiawassee, Michigan
Madison, New York
Nassau, New York
Suffolk, New York
Stark, Ohio
Sandusky, Ohio

[bobloblaw]

Maricopa country is no where near flipping

[IceSpear]

A lot. I'll just focus on PA, assuming a modest win for each party.

R -> D:
Beaver
Berks
Cambria
Carbon
Chester
Fayette
Mercer

D -> R:
Bucks
Centre
Dauphin
Lehigh
Luzerne
Northampton

[Clermont County GOPer]

In an R win
Jefferson, CO
Larimer, CO
Woodbury, IA
Dupage, IL
Calhoun, MI
Eaton, MI
Macomb, MI
Monroe, MI
Dakota, MN
Washington, MN
Hillsborough, NH
Salem. NJ
Nassau, NY
Niagara, NY
Richmond, NY
Suffolk,NY
Hamilton, OH
Sandusky, OH
Stark, OH
wood, OH
Bucks, PA
Centre, PA
Dauphin, PA
Harris, TX
Loudoun, VA
Clark, WA
Racine, WI
Winnebago, WI

[H. Ross Peron]

I'm curious how long Orange County can hold out-be it 2016 or 2020. Hillary seems to have if anything more appeal than Obama to Hispanics and Asians, so that may help.

[Mr. Smith]

Del Norte would be likely than Orange County to flip, good as Clinton is with Asians and Hispanics...I just don't see that being enough to outdo the Irvine suburbanites.

As for Virginia:

Loudon
Lynchburg (Independent City)
Mecklenburg
Virginia Beach (Independent City)
Halifax

[Arbitrage1980]

Del Norte would be likely than Orange County to flip, good as Clinton is with Asians and Hispanics...I just don't see that being enough to outdo the Irvine suburbanites.

As for Virginia:

Loudon
Lynchburg (Independent City)
Mecklenburg
Virginia Beach (Independent City)
Halifax

Loudoun went for Obama twice.

[Mr. Smith]

Del Norte would be likely than Orange County to flip, good as Clinton is with Asians and Hispanics...I just don't see that being enough to outdo the Irvine suburbanites.

As for Virginia:

Loudon
Lynchburg (Independent City)
Mecklenburg
Virginia Beach (Independent City)
Halifax

Loudoun went for Obama twice.

....So it did.

But whatever, this was completely off for the most point anyway...except for Lynchburg, it didn't flip, but it was a single digit loss rather than the usual GOP win.

I fully accept de-accolades on this one.