Who will win the runoff in Mississippi?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win the runoff in Mississippi?

Primary results:
Chris McDaniel 49,5%
Thad Cochran (I) 49,0%

[Del Tachi]

Thad Cochran will win with around 50.8% of the vote.  Turnout will drop heavily in the Pine Belt/Coast, but it will stay propped-up in the northeast (around Tupelo).  Turnout in Oktibbeha, Lafayatte and DeSoto will actually increase.  For some reason, Cochran runs well ahead of other "establishment" candidates in the northeast.  The race is split along regional cleavages, not ideological ones. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Chris McDaniel, by around 4-5%.

[Never]

Chris McDaniel, by around 4-5%.

[RogueBeaver]

Chris McDaniel, by around 4-5%.

[MATTROSE94]

Chris McDaniel, by around 4-5%.

[Miles]

At this point Cochran's best (only?) hope is that McDaniel's supporters do something really stupid (like spying on his wife) again...

[7,052,770]

Infuriatingly, McDaniel will win unless he screws it up. Cochran's only hope is the same as Childers' only hope -- unfortunately Cochran only gets 10 more days to hope for a collapse while Childers still has 5 more months.

[DINGO Joe]

The black man will storm to the voting booth and save the great patriarch Cochran 52-48.  Of course not, MickyD wins 54-46.

[TDAS04]

McDaniel, most likely. 

[Flake]

McDaniel 52-48

[RR1997]

McDaniel, sadly.

[TJ in Oregon]

McDaniel will I think. I'm still hoping Thad will pull a comeback but he's had more gaffes than McDaniel has in the last two weeks. I just don't think he has it in him anymore.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Mickey D.

[politicallefty]

I really don't think Cochran has a chance. The enthusiasm is with McDaniel and the Tea Party. I think it'll end up being something along the lines of 55-45, though a bigger margin wouldn't surprise me. I'd be surprised if it's within 5%, and really quite shocked if Cochran manages to pull off a win.

[Keystone Phil]

"What...what happened in Mississippi?"

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm banking on Cochran, though not by much.

McDaniel comes off as unsavory.  Plus, whatever black voters opt to vote in the GOP primary will vote for Cochran, and that might make a difference.  McDaniel's election is seen as a threat in the eyes of many blacks. and voting for Cochran in a primary is viewed as a necessary lesser-of-two-evils act.

Cochran tended to carry the heavily black counties in the 1st primary.  MS has no party registration. 

[Del Tachi]

Seriously, June 3rd was a statistical tie.

Normally insignificant things such as the weather could end-up making a world of difference in the runoff.  And I've seen nothing to indicate that the runoff is anything besides 50/50.  Granted, McD was up in a few polls but IIRC they only included responses from June 3rd GOP primary voters.  Normally this difference would be insignificant but in razor-thin elections concerned moderates/Democrats who skipped-out on June 3rd who are now terrified of losing Columbus AFB or shipbuilding contracts could end-up throwing this to Cochran.  Moreover, this "fear mongering" tactic tends to be what Cochran is going for now (albeit I wish Cochran would shift his regional emphasis from the Coast to North MS, where he seems to have a natural advantage over other establishment Republicans in primary elections).

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

McDaniel will win, and probably relatively easily (by 5-10%). Cantor's defeat seriously energized the Tea Party movement and they will be going all out for McDaniel, while Cochran seems to be seriously floundering and really hasn't helped himself at all with his recent gaffes.

[SPC]

McDaniel wins by 2-3%

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm banking on Cochran, though not by much.

McDaniel comes off as unsavory.  Plus, whatever black voters opt to vote in the GOP primary will vote for Cochran, and that might make a difference.  McDaniel's election is seen as a threat in the eyes of many blacks. and voting for Cochran in a primary is viewed as a necessary lesser-of-two-evils act.

Cochran tended to carry the heavily black counties in the 1st primary.  MS has no party registration. 

I'm feeling like Nate Silver in 2012 over this one!

[Del Tachi]

Thad Cochran will win with around 50.8% of the vote.  Turnout will drop heavily in the Pine Belt/Coast, but it will stay propped-up in the northeast (around Tupelo).  Turnout in Oktibbeha, Lafayatte and DeSoto will actually increase.  For some reason, Cochran runs well ahead of other "establishment" candidates in the northeast.  The race is split along regional cleavages, not ideological ones. 

My reasoning was a bit off, but I got within 0.1% of the actual result!

[ElectionsGuy]

I have to say, even though I didn't want Cochran to win this thing, he did something incredible. He unexpectedly tried to turnout black voters, did it successfully, recovered from a 0.5% deficit in the primary to a 1.8% win in the runoff, and shocked everybody.