What is Elizabeth Warren's floor?

[Matty]

If the Rs nominate a "good" candidate, and Warren runs a fairly extreme campaign, how bad could it end up getting?

[Mister Mets]

Interesting question.

In 2012, she won Massachusetts with 53.7% when Obama won with almost 62%. If she underperformed on the national level to the same extent, that leaves her with 44.28%. I understand that I'm comparing someone who went against an incumbent to an incumbent, so the norm for her in a good year for the Democrats would be a bit higher (48% or so).

In a bad year for Democrats, she'd likely go much lower. About 40% seems right as an absolute floor with a combination of strong Republican ticket, poor environment and campaign mishaps.

[IceSpear]

If Christie recovers and manages to regain his bipartisan popularity, the media destroys Warren for being a Marxist/socialist/communist, and Christie runs as a moderate:

Christie - 383
Warren - 155

[Bull Moose Base]

One of the most liberal senators from Massachusetts?

Kerry got over 48 against a wartime incumbent with a more Republican electorate. I'd peg Warren's floor at 49 and change.

[henster]

Considering that no Democrat has gotten less than 48% of the vote since 1996 her floor is probably between 46-48% she will do well in high populated states like Cali, NY, Mass etc.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Republican wins 51-47 with 331 electoral votes

[Mister Mets]

One of the most liberal senators from Massachusetts?

Kerry got over 48 against a wartime incumbent with a more Republican electorate. I'd peg Warren's floor at 49 and change.

Kerry was a war hero, so he had that going for him.

I also think George W Bush was fairly weak as far as people who manage to get elected President go. A McCain or Giuliani would have stomped Kerry more.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Warren is the only person to have stated in screaming capital letters she isn't running.

[Never]

Republicans win 55%-43% with 360 electoral votes. Elizabeth Warren could be swamped outside of the Northeast with the right Republican candidate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Warren's Success depends on the strength of the republican nominee. I've constructed a few different scenarios, ordered from best for warren to worst for warren. (note that I am not predicting state margins, just who wins each state and the national popular vote):

Warren vs. Santorum:

Warren 288-250

Warren wins the popular vote 50-48%. Santorum finds that high evangelical turnout and Warren's extremism only gets you so far when you're also extreme.

Warren vs. Christie (Partially Recovered):

Christie 291-247

Christie is difficult for some to trust, but he's won back a good deal of his bipartisan support with a slightly above average VP nominee, Warren's Extremism, and the simple passage of time. His higher than usual performance in NJ doesn't get him a win there, but it does allow to him to win in neighboring Pennsylvania. In Ohio, however, the liberal turnout is just a bit too much, and Christie becomes the first republican to win without it.

Christie wins the popular vote, 49-48%.

Warren vs. Bush (with Rob Portman as his running mate):

Bush 345-193

It turns out to be the perfect GOP ticket, loved by both conservatives and moderates alike, and even winning 20% of liberals. Warren is just too extreme to compete.

Bush wins the popular vote, 53-45%.

[Suburbia]

This would probably be Sen. Warren's floor if she faced a credible Republican candidate. She may be unelectable, but heck, Ted Cruz is probably unelectable as well.
321-217 Credible Republican

[Rockefeller GOP]

[Mister Mets]

In a bad cycle with a weak Democratic nominee, Republicans would swing every state they won by fifteen points to an incumbent Obama plus Illinois (where Obama's home state advantage is negated) and New Jersey (in play if Christie's the nominee.)

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Elizabeth Warren would not lose Minnesota or Wisconsin.

[Vega]

The Kerry States + Nevada and New Mexico.

[Mr. Illini]

Worst case scenario for her, I still see her holding 201 EVs. There are enough progressives in the northeast and on the west coast to allow her to hold those areas minus NH. For Illinois, the Chicago suburbs would swing to the GOP, making the state closer to a Kerry-level victory here. Michigan would be fairly close but like Illinois, its metro area is full of liberal-enough Dem-ticket voters to hold the state.

Minnesota would be a big loss for the Dems, but I believe there are enough moderates that have been voting Democrat for a long time in the MPLS burbs and northeastern part of the state that a too-liberal candidate could send them jumping the fence.

[Rockefeller GOP]

To people including NH and PA in Elizabeth Warren's FLOOR (which, last I checked, meant worse case scenario), keep dreamin'.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Probably 49% by this point.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Republican wins 51-47 with 331 electoral votes

Hahahahahaha, no.

[ElectionsGuy]

353-185

This would be around a 6-7 point victory, reverse Obama 2008. Some of the closest states in this scenario would be Oregon, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Illinois.