Which will happen first?
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  Which will happen first?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Democrats win control of State Senate in NY and keep it.		  
#2
GOP wins the Governors offices in KY and WV		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Which will happen first?  (Read 803 times)
CatoMinor
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« on: June 14, 2014, 12:11:32 AM »
?
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2014, 12:59:04 AM »
Tough call, really.  Option 2.  I think the NY Senate is stuck where it is until redistricting and a new Democratic governor is in charge.  Otherwise, the only thing that could take it out of GOP hands would be a leadership coup, which of course is what brought the Senate in its current state.  I don't know what happens to the WV governorship after Tomblin (but I don't think the future is very bright for Democrats now), but Democrats have Conway in KY.  I don't think the Republicans stand much of a shot in that race.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2014, 01:18:28 AM »
Leaning Option 2 because of the gerrymandering.
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Sol
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2014, 08:58:26 AM »
Isn't there some systematic malapportionment in the senate?
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politicallefty
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2014, 09:51:17 AM »
Quote from: Sol on June 14, 2014, 08:58:26 AM
Isn't there some systematic malapportionment in the senate?

Yes, and it's quite nasty. The NY State Senate allows for a deviation of ±5%. I don't know how that can stand up based on Supreme Court precedent. The NY State Senate combines gerrymandering with malapportionment. Every downstate district is overpopulated and every upstate district is underpopulated.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2014, 05:08:28 PM »
Quote from: politicallefty on June 14, 2014, 09:51:17 AM
Quote from: Sol on June 14, 2014, 08:58:26 AM
Isn't there some systematic malapportionment in the senate?

Yes, and it's quite nasty. The NY State Senate allows for a deviation of ±5%. I don't know how that can stand up based on Supreme Court precedent. The NY State Senate combines gerrymandering with malapportionment. Every downstate district is overpopulated and every upstate district is underpopulated.

Gee, lucky you. We're allowed ±20% here.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2014, 05:21:49 PM »
Quote from: Emperor Scott on June 14, 2014, 12:59:04 AM
Tough call, really.  Option 2.  I think the NY Senate is stuck where it is until redistricting and a new Democratic governor is in charge.  Otherwise, the only thing that could take it out of GOP hands would be a leadership coup, which of course is what brought the Senate in its current state.  I don't know what happens to the WV governorship after Tomblin (but I don't think the future is very bright for Democrats now), but Democrats have Conway in KY.  I don't think the Republicans stand much of a shot in that race.

Could Manchin come back for a non-consecutive term? And are there any young (under 50) "up and coming" Democrats in WV?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2014, 06:16:11 PM »
Quote from: Senator DC on June 14, 2014, 05:08:28 PM
Gee, lucky you. We're allowed ±20% here.

Wtf... does rural Nova Scotia run the political machine there lol?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2014, 07:41:41 PM »
Quote from: Jbrase on June 14, 2014, 06:16:11 PM
Quote from: Senator DC on June 14, 2014, 05:08:28 PM
Gee, lucky you. We're allowed ±20% here.

Wtf... does rural Nova Scotia run the political machine there lol?

No. We have fair non partisan boundary commissions in Canada. They have higher deviations to work with, but I don't believe rural Nova Scotia is over represented. However, that's not to say it doesn't happen. In Ontario, Northern Ontario is extremely over represented. Many districts exceed even 20% in deviation.
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Sol
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2014, 09:18:30 PM »
Quote from: Hatman on June 14, 2014, 07:41:41 PM
Quote from: Jbrase on June 14, 2014, 06:16:11 PM
Quote from: Senator DC on June 14, 2014, 05:08:28 PM
Gee, lucky you. We're allowed ±20% here.

Wtf... does rural Nova Scotia run the political machine there lol?

No. We have fair non partisan boundary commissions in Canada. They have higher deviations to work with, but I don't believe rural Nova Scotia is over represented. However, that's not to say it doesn't happen. In Ontario, Northern Ontario is extremely over represented. Many districts exceed even 20% in deviation.

That's evil. Deviation should be limited to at least below 1%. Why does Northern Ontario mooch so much?
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