Will the GOP ever nominate a minority candidate?

[Beet]

Could this happen?

[Mr. Morden]

I assume Hispanic whites count as "minority" for the purpose of this poll?

[Beet]

I assume Hispanic whites count as "minority" for the purpose of this poll?

Of course... This is about political categories, not census categories

[Mr. Morden]

Well then, there's a decent chance that it'll happen by 2028.

If not as a presidential nominee, then certainly a minority GOP *vice* presidential nominee is very likely in the next few elections.  I think both parties will see some percentage in including diversity on the ticket in the coming years.  Meaning that if you nominate a white male for the presidency, then he's likely to pick either a woman or racial minority as his running mate.  Now, the Democratic bench of potential candidates is much deeper than the GOP bench, but the GOP is gaining fast (while still unlikely to catch up to the Dems any time soon).  You've now got folks like Rubio, Ayotte, Martinez, etc., who weren't on the national scene five years ago.

[Never]

Yes, it could happen, but it won't be easy to predict when. I suspect it might be sooner rather than later. It is plausible that most of the major Republican candidates 2024 are currently unknown entities, and that would surely be the case by 2028/2032, meaning that a minority nominee could pop up in any of those years.

I remember flipping through a children's book on the presidency written sometime between 2004 and 2006, and at the end it had illustrations of a woman, Asian-American, Hispanic, and African-American being inaugurated as president, and said that it could be another 50 years or so before a minority became president. Of course, Barack Obama was elected less than five years after that book was published.

In other words, a Republican minority candidate could very well sneak up on us, perhaps not in 2016, but fairly soon.

[TarHeelDem]

A Republican minority candidate could "very well sneak up on us" fairly soon, but the question is when the party will be ready to nominate them. I estimate that year to be 2032 or 2036 after Walker/Bush/Paul and/or the like have failed.

[⛄]

Do VP candidates count?

If so: 2016

I'm pretty sure Bush will nominate Martinez.

[Never]

A Republican minority candidate could "very well sneak up on us" fairly soon, but the question is when the party will be ready to nominate them. I estimate that year to be 2032 or 2036 after Walker/Bush/Paul and/or the like have failed.

Colin Powell has commented that he thought the GOP was ready to nominate a minority like himself as early as 1996. I believe that his opinion on this was mentioned in Game Change 2008.

I voted 2020-2028 in the poll simply because I don't see a Republican minority being nominated in 2016 since Rubio's standing is weak, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson are not likely to make it that far if they run, and Susana Martinez claims that she will not seek the nomination (though she would probably be a top-tier candidate if she did).

[Mister Mets]

Could this happen?

There are two different questions.

Could it happen, and will it happen?

It could happen. The Republicans have a respectable bench of Hispanic-Americans, Indian-Americans and African-Americans in statewide office.

But it might not happen, since there are plenty of white guys who could win the nomination. And a few white women.

It's a bit like asking if Republicans are going to nominate a midwestern candidate. It could happen in the next few cycles. But it could end up being other candidates.