CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7

[DrScholl]

And he's been caught doing it by a member of the state legislature, who has talked about it, so it's not like it's just a rumor. It's very disgusting.

[Sbane]

A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

I don't see one primarying DeMaio either

Yeah, DeMaio has an opportunity to hold on to this district for a while if he does actually win. He can continue to be moderate on most social issues except perhaps immigration. Although even there he would likely need to be in favor of more skilled immigration, which most non-crazy Republicans support anyways. Good amount of Asians (specifically Filipinos) in this district who are swing voters who voted for Obama twice and likely the reason why Bilbray lost.

I should mention that his pro-choice views could be a problem for him in the future. He is lucky he doesn't have to run in a closed Republican primary.

[Landon1993]

My bets on DeMaio. The San Diego Area leans Republican.

I also think through Democrats will have their vote hold up nationally, in key seats they will lose in close races. This is one of those key races.

In other words, we could see a scenario where democrats in safe districts increase their margins, but where in seats with small democratic wins in 2012 their margins will shrink or be eliminated.

I think that''s what is being suggested by the discrepancy between the Generic Ballot Polls Nationwide, and the polling for individual house seats.