CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7

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I think Peters is in a lot of trouble but Republicans shouldn't be so confident. If DeMaio can be tied to the extremely conservative national republicans, he will likely lose. The type of people who vote Democrat here are well educated and vote in all elections so you can't count on a drop in turnout here.

That being said, those people are also the type who would vote for a moderate Republican and were voting Republican till about 2008 or so. DeMaio being gay helps him since he can use that to position himself as a moderate Republican. Remember, this sort of district will be just fine with conservative positions on fiscal matters.

TL;DR version: The La Jolla vote will be key.

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A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

[Sbane]

A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

Which district are you talking about? because isn't DeMaio pro-gay marriage and pro-choice?

I was responding to Vosem's statement that a strong conservative could win in this district. A strong social conservative would not be able to win.

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A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

He's not a strong socon. He's an economic conservative.

Honestly, gun to my head, DeMaio wins at this point in the game, but not by this big of a margin. Expect about a 53-47 win.

Apparently no one read my first post in this thread where I broke down what would happen with DeMaio as the candidate.

[Sbane]

A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

I don't see one primarying DeMaio either

Yeah, DeMaio has an opportunity to hold on to this district for a while if he does actually win. He can continue to be moderate on most social issues except perhaps immigration. Although even there he would likely need to be in favor of more skilled immigration, which most non-crazy Republicans support anyways. Good amount of Asians (specifically Filipinos) in this district who are swing voters who voted for Obama twice and likely the reason why Bilbray lost.

I should mention that his pro-choice views could be a problem for him in the future. He is lucky he doesn't have to run in a closed Republican primary.