1. Not understanding the difference between municipal elections and federal ones is an amateur mistake. Last cycle, Louise Slaughter was supposed to lose, because her opponent had won a local election by double digits, but instead, Slaughter won by double digits. Winning big locally does not guarantee that a candidate can win federally.
Louise Slaughter was never "supposed" to lose -- she was always favored; it was thought that Brooks might be able to take advantage of a Democratic meltdown if that occurred. NY-25 is a significantly more Democratic district than CA-52 (NY-25 voted Obama +20; CA-52 voted Obama +6); and Slaughter is a much more entrenched incumbent than Peters, having been first elected in 1986. Nevertheless, Brooks held her to her closest margin since 1992, and did generally credibly. Scott Peters is no Louise Slaughter.
2. CA-11 was still drawn for a Republican, seats with similar numbers in other states fell to Republicans in 2010. The other close contest, CA-20, still resulted in a Democratic hold.
It was, but demographic changes had negated that advantage by 2010. Seats with similar numbers did fall in other states, but seats with similar numbers were also held in other states -- McNerney happened to run a strong campaign, Harmer to some extent took victory for granted, and it was (just barely) enough. CA-20 was a very late-breaking contest that most Republicans didn't realize would be competitive until the last few weeks; Vidak was a no-namer at the time, though he's since parlayed his good performance then into the state legislature.
On a fair map, Democrats chances are even better of holding seats.
On the contrary, your 'fair map' has created a bucketload of marginal districts in a state where there used to be almost none. Both Democrats and Republicans will have to get used to having a lot of those marginal districts (gasp!) shift from party to party during elections. Living under a non-gerrymandered map doesn't make voters like the Democrats more -- in fact all but the most politically in-tune will never realize it.
3. You don't have to be so condescending, but if that's your bag, whatever.
That's rich.
Peters is a non-offensive incumbent and DeMaio isn't even a moderate, that does not suggest Lean Republican.
DeMaio is definitely moderate on social issues; he supports marriage equality (he's also gay) and medicinal marijuana. But that's beside the point -- CA-52 is a swing district where even a strongly conservative Republican could win in a good year; it would just be harder for them (to win and to hold it).
But, when the election results are in, we'll see who is correct.
I'm looking forward to it.
