CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7

[DrScholl]

Democratic incumbents don't lose in California. For example, we held CA-11 when it was a gerrymandered mess drawn for a Republican in 2010. This seat isn't like UT-4 or NC-7, it's not some heavily Republican bastion that a Democrat was just lucky to have won, it is an Obama seat and as a D+ PVI.

[DrScholl]

Ah, the usual suspects arrive, how surprising.

1. Not understanding the difference between municipal elections and federal ones is an amateur mistake. Last cycle, Louise Slaughter was supposed to lose, because her opponent had won a local election by double digits, but instead, Slaughter won by double digits. Winning big locally does not guarantee that a candidate can win federally.

2. CA-11 was still drawn for a Republican, seats with similar numbers in other states fell to Republicans in 2010. The other close contest, CA-20, still resulted in a Democratic hold. On a fair map, Democrats chances are even better of holding seats.

3. You don't have to be so condescending, but if that's your bag, whatever. Peters is a non-offensive incumbent and DeMaio isn't even a moderate, that does not suggest Lean Republican. But, when the election results are in, we'll see who is correct.

[DrScholl]

And he's been caught doing it by a member of the state legislature, who has talked about it, so it's not like it's just a rumor. It's very disgusting.