Rating the Senatorial Races

[ElectionsGuy]

Similar to this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193521.0

In order of likeness to flip...

1. SD - OPEN (Safe R)
2. WV - OPEN (Likely R)
3. MT - OPEN (Likely R)
4. AR - Pryor (Toss-Up)
5. LA - Landrieu (Toss-Up)
6. NC - Hagan (Toss-Up)
7. AK - Begich (Toss-Up)
8. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
9. IA - OPEN (Lean D)
10. KY - McConnell (Lean R)
11. CO - Udall (Lean D)
12. GA - OPEN (Lean R)
13. NH - Shaheen (Likely D)
14. MN - Franken (Safe D)
15. VA - Warner (Safe D)
16. OR - Merkley (Safe D)
17. MS - Cochran (Safe R)*
18. NM - Udall (Safe D)
19. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
20. SC - Graham (Safe R)
21. ME - Collins (Safe R)
22. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)
23. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
24. SC - Scott (Safe R)
25. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
26. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
27. MA - Markey (Safe D)
28. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
29. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
30. DE - Coons (Safe D)
31. OK - OPEN (Safe R)
32. HI - Schatz (Safe D)
33. ID - Risch (Safe R)
34. WY - Enzi (Safe R)
35. RI - Reed (Safe D)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe R)**

* For the good possibility of McDaniel getting nominated
** Literally has no opponents, not even third parties.

[Never]

Okay, this looks neat:

1. SD - OPEN (Safe R)
2. WV - OPEN (Safe R)
3. MT - Walsh (Safe R)
4. LA - Landrieu (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
5. NC - Hagan (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
6. AR - Pryor (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
7. AK - Begich (Pure Toss-Up)
8. IA - OPEN (Pure Toss-Up)
9. CO - Udall (Pure Toss-Up)
10. KY - McConnell (Lean R)
11. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
12. NH - Shaheen (Lean D)
13. GA - OPEN (Lean R)
14. OR - Merkley (Likely D)
15. MN - Franken (Likely D)
16. MS - Cochran or OPEN (Likely R)
17. VA - Warner (Safe D)
18. NM - Udall (Safe D)
19. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
20. SC - Graham (Safe R)
21. SC - Scott (Safe R)
22. ME - Collins (Safe R)
23. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)
24. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
25. MA - Markey (Safe D)
26. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
27. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
28. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
29. HI - Schatz (Safe D)
30. OK - OPEN (Safe R)
31. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
32. ID - Risch (Safe R)
33. RI - Reed (Safe D)
34. DE - Coons (Safe D)
35. WY - Enzi (Safe R)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe/Guaranteed R)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

1. SD - OPEN (Safe R)
2. WV - OPEN (Likely R)
3. MT - Walsh (Likely R)
4. AR - Pryor (Tossup)
5. LA - Landrieu (Tossup)
6. NC - Hagan (Tossup)
7. AK - Begich (Tossup)
8. KY - McConnell (Lean R)
9. IA - OPEN (Lean D)
10. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
11. GA - OPEN (Lean R)
12. CO - Udall (Lean D)
13. NH - Shaheen (Lean D)
14. OR - Merkley (Likely D)
15. MS - Cochran/OPEN (Likely R)*
16. MN - Franken (Safe D)
17. VA - Warner (Safe D)
18. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
19. SC - Graham (Safe R)
20. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)
21. NM - Udall (Safe D)
22. ME - Collins (Safe R)
23. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
24. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
25. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
26. SC (special) - Scott (Safe R)
27. MA - Markey (Safe D)
28. HI (special) - Schatz (Safe D)
29. OK (special) - OPEN (Safe R)
30. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
31. ID - Risch (Safe R)
32. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
33. DE - Coons (Safe D)
34. WY - Enzi (Safe R)
35. RI - Reed (Safe D)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe R)

*Assuming McDaniel wins runoff. If Cochran wins, MS is Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SD,WV and Mnt are GOP pickups. We can win a combination of AR, LA, NC, AK and GA for a net loss of 2-5 seats.

McConnell seat isnt lean GOP, he is trailing.

[NHLiberal]

1. SD - OPEN (Likely R)
2. WV - OPEN (Likely R)
3. MT - OPEN (Lean R)
4. AR - Pryor (Toss-Up)
5. LA - Landrieu (Toss-Up)
6. KY - McConnell (Toss-Up)
7. NC - Hagan (Toss-Up)
8. GA - OPEN (Toss-Up)
9. AK - Begich (Toss-Up)
10. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
11. IA - OPEN (Lean D)
12. CO - Udall (Lean D)
13. MS - Cochran (Likely R)
14. NH - Shaheen (Likely D)
15. MN - Franken (Safe D)
16. OR - Merkley (Safe D)
17. VA - Warner (Safe D)
18. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
19. SC - Graham (Safe R)
20. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
21. HI - Schatz (Safe D)
22. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
23. ME - Collins (Safe R)
24. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)
25. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
26. MA - Markey (Safe D)
27. OK - OPEN (Safe R)
28. SC - Scott (Safe R)
29. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
30. NM - Udall (Safe D)
31. DE - Coons (Safe D)
32. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
33. ID - Risch (Safe R)
34. WY - Enzi (Safe R)
35. RI - Reed (Safe D)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe R)

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I may be stubborn, but I'm not convinced that WV is as gone as people say for the Democrats.

I also think that if a first-tier challenger had come forth to take on Susan Collins, the race would be no better than Lean R for the GOP at this point.

[Del Tachi]

I may be stubborn, but I'm not convinced that WV is as gone as people say for the Democrats.

I also think that if a first-tier challenger had come forth to take on Susan Collins, the race would be no better than Lean R for the GOP at this point.

I'd ping WV as less likely to flip than Montana at least, and I think there's a good reason to suppose that it will become a Tilt R/Tossup race the closer we get to Election Day.  Maine is a different story, Collins is a strong incumbent and the DSCC isn't really in the position to be playing a lot of offense this year unless it's in states with terrible Tea Party candidates.  Maybe under a different set of circumstances where the national party apparatus didn't feel so indebted to incumbents they would consider ditching Landrieu or Pryor to defeat someone like Collins.  However, protecting incumbents will always come first for both parties no matter how vulnerable they are.

[IceSpear]

I may be stubborn, but I'm not convinced that WV is as gone as people say for the Democrats.

I also think that if a first-tier challenger had come forth to take on Susan Collins, the race would be no better than Lean R for the GOP at this point.

I agree on WV, but Collins had a top tier challenger in a Democratic wave year and still romped, so this was always going to be solid R unless she retired or got primaried.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine,_2008

[SWE]

1. South Dakota (Likely R)
2. West Virginia (Lean R)
3. Montana (Lean R)
4. Louisiana (Tossup/Tilt R)
5. Arkansas (Pure Tossup)
6. North Carolina (Tossup/Tilt D)
7. Kentucky (Tossup/Tilt R)
8. Alaska (Lean D)
9. Colorado (Lean D)
10. Iowa (Lean D)
11. Michigan (Lean D)
12. Georgia (Lean R)
13. Mississippi (Likely R)
14. Oregon (Safe D)
15. Nebraska (Safe R)
16. Kansas (Safe R)
17. Minnesota (Safe D)
18. New Hampshire (Safe D)
19. Virginia (Safe D)
20. Maine (Safe R)
21. South Carolina (Safe R)
22. Idaho (Safe R)
23. Texas (Safe R)
24. Tennessee (Safe R)
25. Oklahoma (Safe R)
26. South Carolina sp. (Safe R)
27. Oklahoma sp. (Safe R)
28. New Jersey (Safe D)
29. Massachusetts (Safe D)
30. Hawaii (Safe D)
31. New Mexico (Safe D)
32. Illinois (Safe D)
33. Wyoming (Safe R)
34. Rhode Island (Safe D)
35. Alabama (Safe R)
36. Delaware (Safe D)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Safe D
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Strong D
Hawaii (S)

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

Toss-Up
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina

Lean R
Georgia
Mississippi
Nebraska
South Dakota
West Virginia

Strong R
Kansas
Maine
Oklahoma (S)


Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Texas
Wyoming

[NHLiberal]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

[Maxwell]

Oldies, are you confusing the Gubernatorial race with the Senate race? Because Sasse is ahead by nearly 20.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I have an extreme amount of confidence that Franken can be beaten (note: I am not saying that he will be beaten) but I think you ought to have that race as Strong D, Oldies.

[NHLiberal]

Oldies, are you confusing the Gubernatorial race with the Senate race? Because Sasse is ahead by nearly 20.

I think he's just confused period

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

While I'd say that Dems are favored in all those races, it's still early enough that a Republican could pull it out under the right circumstances.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Oldies, are you confusing the Gubernatorial race with the Senate race? Because Sasse is ahead by nearly 20.

I think he's just confused period

No, I'm not.  I have a suspicion that Sasse could lose if he makes an Akin or Mourdock-style gaffe.

[NHLiberal]

Oldies, are you confusing the Gubernatorial race with the Senate race? Because Sasse is ahead by nearly 20.

I think he's just confused period

No, I'm not.  I have a suspicion that Sasse could lose if he makes an Akin or Mourdock-style gaffe.

That's not what I was talking about. I was talking about you rating Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Virginia "Lean D." Literally not a single one of those is anything close to "Lean D." NH is Likely D (only because it's New Hampshire; almost nothing is ever safe) and the rest are Safe D easily.

[windjammer]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

While I'd say that Dems are favored in all those races, it's still early enough that a Republican could pull it out under the right circumstances.

But Oldiesfreak, I agree with you that Democrats are favored and that's not safe Dem.

But, Likely Dem would be more appropriate I guess?

[dmmidmi]

Safe D
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D
New Hampshire

Lean D
Alaska
Colorado
Iowa
Michigan

Toss-Up
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina

Lean R
Georgia

Likely R
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Mississippi
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Texas
Wyoming

Though, I do expect all of the incumbents in the "Toss-Up" category to keep their seats.

[free my dawg]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

While I'd say that Dems are favored in all those races, it's still early enough that a Republican could pull it out under the right circumstances.

Lean D implies it's competitive.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

While I'd say that Dems are favored in all those races, it's still early enough that a Republican could pull it out under the right circumstances.

Lean D implies it's competitive.

That's exactly my point.  I'm saying it could be competitive if things work out right for the GOP.  Not to mention, all of the Democrats are freshmen Senators, who are hardly ever safe for reelection.

[free my dawg]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Virginia

...

While I'd say that Dems are favored in all those races, it's still early enough that a Republican could pull it out under the right circumstances.

Lean D implies it's competitive.

That's exactly my point.  I'm saying it could be competitive if things work out right for the GOP.  Not to mention, all of the Democrats are freshmen Senators, who are hardly ever safe for reelection.

Ah, so it's just a difference of definition. Your definition of Lean D is my definition of Strong D. My definition of a lean is a race that's already competitive but there's a clear favorite (like Georgia or Michigan).

[tmthforu94]

Safe D
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D
Michigan

Toss-Up
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina

Lean R
Georgia

Likely R
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Mississippi
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Texas
Wyoming

Alaska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisana go Republican, giving the GOP 51 seats in the Senate.

[morgieb]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=144510.50 is your friend

Anyway:

1. South Dakota (D-Open) - Pressler is polling OK, but not well enough to put the seat in danger.

2. West Virginia (D-Open)

3. Montana (D-Walsh)

4. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - while previously I thought the jungle primary would be her Achilles heal, now it might actually save her. There hasn't been a published public poll in ages with her having a lead.

5. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - he's not out of the woods yet, and it looks like his rebound may be declining, but his position looks much better than it did 3 months ago.

6. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - well they didn't make the mistake of nominating Brannon, and Hagan's polling still looks ordinary, so this is worrying. Tillis is still an ordinary candidate though.

7. Alaska (D-Begich) - probably running the best campaign of the red-state Dems, although Sullivan seems like a pretty solid candidate. Want some polling here.

8. Kentucky (R-McConnell)

9. Colorado (D-Udall) - I want to see polling here.

10. Iowa (D-Open) - think Ernst is still a pretty weak candidate, but there's little doubt Braley dropped the ball here to some extent. Her leads were probably a post-primary bounce though.

11. Michigan (D-Open) - Peters has finally broken away. The CW here was that it was always over-rated as a pick-up opportunity, and it looks like they've been proven right.

12. Georgia (R-Open) - unfortunately the Republican's two strongest candidates got into the run-off. Will be hard for Nunn to get the 50%+1 to beat them, as they seem uncontroversial and Georgia is still a very red state.

13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - Brown's campaign has been a joke. Shaheen should crush him.

14. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - I think Cochran loses the primary here. But it's still Mississippi, where even someone as controversial as McDaniel is favoured.

15. Minnesota (D-Franken) - there's some hope in McFadden's camp that he might make it close,  but Franken seems popular and Minnesota hasn't been kind for Republicans lately.

16. Oregon (D-Merkley) - Wehby had potential, but she's too scandal prone to win I feel.

17. Virginia (D-Warner)

18. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - Dems actually have a possible contingency if Graham loses the primary, but the polling indicates that he's safe.

19. Kansas (R-Roberts) - hard to know. Don't really think a Tea Party upset will happen here, but anything could happen. Kansas is still very red, so even with a primary upset it'll be hard for us to win.

20. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - ditto.

21. New Mexico (D-Udall)

22. Nebraska (R-Open)

23. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - Democrats failed to get serious opposition for what was an open seat.

24. New Jersey (D-Booker) - Rassmussen had Booker up by an underwhelming margin, but don't hold your breath.

25. Illinois (D-Durbin) - similarly, Durbin's lead is smaller than expected, but he'll win easily.

26. Massachusetts (D-Markey)

27. Texas (R-Cornyn)

28. Maine (R-Collins) - now that she's won her primary, she'll be completely safe. In 2008 she managed to knock off a pretty good recruit by 20 points, which says a lot.

29. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - regardless of the primary, the Republicans could only find a perennial candidate who lost to Inouye by 50 points.

30. South Carolina-B (R-Scott)

31. Delaware (D-Coons)

32. Idaho (R-Risch)

33. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe)

34. Rhode Island (D-Reed)

35. Wyoming (R-Enzi)

36. Alabama (R-Sessions) - is literally running unopposed.

Seems to be an unusually high amount of safe races.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Graham's won his primary already...