Rating the Senatorial Races

[morgieb]

Graham's won his primary already...

Aah yeah forgot that the SC primary had already went.

Move that down to like 20-something then.

[NHLiberal]

7/12 Ratings Changes
Alaska: Toss-Up ---> Lean D (Still 9th likeliest to flip)
New Hampshire: Likely D ---> Safe D (Still 14th likeliest to flip)

Colorado: 12th likeliest to flip ---> 10th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)
Michigan: 10th likeliest to flip ---> 11th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)
Iowa: 11th likeliest to flip --> 12th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)

Kentucky: 6th likeliest to flip ---> 5th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
Louisiana: 5th likeliest to flip ---> 6th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)

Georgia: 8th likeliest to flip ---> 7th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
North Carolina: 7th likeliest to flip ---> 8th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)

South Carolina: 19th likeliest to flip ---> 18th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Tennessee: 20th likeliest to flip ---> 19th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Nebraska: 18th likeliest to flip ---> 20th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)

Kansas: 22nd likeliest to flip ---> 21st likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Hawaii: 21st likeliest to flip ---> 22nd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)

New Ratings
1. SD - OPEN (Likely R)
2. WV - OPEN (Likely R)
3. MT - OPEN (Lean R)
4. AR - Pryor (Toss-Up)
5. KY - McConnell (Toss-Up)
6. LA - Landrieu (Toss-Up)
7. GA - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. NC - Hagan (Toss-Up)
9. AK - Begich (Lean D)
10. CO - Udall (Lean D)
11. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
12. IA - OPEN (Lean D)
13. MS - Cochran (Likely R)
14. NH - Shaheen (Safe D)
15. MN - Franken (Safe D)
16. OR - Merkley (Safe D)
17. VA - Warner (Safe D)
18. SC - Graham (Safe R)
19. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
20. NE - OPEN (Safe R)
21. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
22. HI - Schatz (Safe D)
23. ME - Collins (Safe R)
24. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)
25. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
26. MA - Markey (Safe D)
27. OK - OPEN (Safe R)
28. SC - Scott (Safe R)
29. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
30. NM - Udall (Safe D)
31. DE - Coons (Safe D)
32. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
33. ID - Risch (Safe R)
34. WY - Enzi (Safe R)
35. RI - Reed (Safe D)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe R)

Gun to my head, SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, KY, and GA all flip for a net gain of R+3.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. SD (Chance of flipping: 95%)
2. MT (Chance of flipping: 92%)
3. WV (Chance of flipping: 90%)
4. AR (Chance of flipping: 55%)
5. LA (Chance of flipping: 54%)
6. CO (Chance of flipping: 49%)
7. NC (Chance of flipping: 47%)
8. AK (Chance of flipping: 45%)
9. IA (Chance of flipping: 38%)
10. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
11. KY (Chance of flipping: 33%)
12. MI (Chance of flipping: 25%)
13. NH (Chance of flipping: 15%)
14. MN (Chance of flipping: 10%)
15. VA (Chance of flipping: 7%)
16. OR (Chance of flipping: 5%)
17. NJ (Chance of flipping: 4%)
18. MS (Chance of flipping: 4%)
19. TX (Chance of flipping: 4%)
20. IL (Chance of flipping: 3%)
21. KS (Chance of flipping: 3%)
22. TN (Chance of flipping: 3%)
23. SC-Graham (Chance of flipping: 3%)
24. NE (Chance of flipping: 3%)
25. MA (Chance of flipping: 2%)
26. HI (Chance of flipping: 2%)
27. NM (Chance of flipping: 2%)
28. SC-Scott (Chance of flipping: 2%)
29. OK-Coburn (Chance of flipping: 2%)
30. ME (Chance of flipping: 1%)
31. DE (Chance of flipping: 1%)
32. ID (Chance of flipping: 1%)
33. RI (Chance of flipping: 1%)
34. OK-Inhofe (Chance of flipping: 1%)
35. WY (Chance of flipping: 1%)
36. AL (Chance of flipping: 0%)

[Dixie Reborn]

Safe Democrat

-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-Rhode Island

Likely Democrat

-Michigan
-Minnesota
-New Hampshire
-Oregon
-Virginia

Lean Democrat

-Alaska
-Iowa
-North Carolina

Tossup

-Arkansas
-Colorado

Lean Republican

-Georgia
-Kentucky
-Louisiana

Likely Republican

-Kansas
-Mississippi
-Montana
-South Dakota
-West Virginia

Safe Republican

-Alabama
-Idaho
-Maine
-Nebraska
-Oklahoma (both)
-South Carolina (both)
-Tennessee
-Texas
-Wyoming