The Ebola Thread
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Author Topic: The Ebola Thread  (Read 25712 times)
Beet
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« on: June 16, 2014, 09:58:52 PM »
« edited: October 23, 2014, 09:26:29 AM by Beet »

Discuss the ongoing ebola outbreak here.

Summary:Previous ebola outbreaks were confined to central Africa, to isolated villages where each case could be traced back to a single source. The villages could then be easily quarantined until the virus was contained.

Here we have it suddenly appear in west Africa, and it has already touched three metropolitan areas - Conakry, Freetown, and Monrovia. "The situation is serious, you can't say it is under control as cases are continuing and it is spreading geographically," Dr Pierre Formenty, a WHO expert who recently returned from Guinea, told a news briefing in Geneva on Wednesday.

Sierra Leone suspended cross-border trade fairs with Guinea and Liberia on Wednesday and closed schools, cinemas and nightclubs in a frontier region in a bid to halt the spread of the Ebola virus.

June 20, 2014: Doctors without Border: Outbreak Out of Control

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf: National Emergency

July 22, 2014: Number of cases top 1,000

July 30, 2014: Public Health England (PHE) issued an alert to GPs, A&E departments, Critical Care Units as well as all NHS trusts across the UK, warning doctors and medical staff to be vigilant to the disease.

August 7, 2014: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control declares a Level 1 Public Health Emergency, previously applicable only to the Swine Flu Outbreak (H1N1) and Hurricane Katrina.

August 9, 2014: Number of fatalities tops 1,000.

September 30, 2014: First case identified outside of West Africa, in Dallas, Texas.

October 6, 2014: First confirmed case of transmission outside of West Africa, in Spain.

October 8, 2014: First Ebola death outside of West Africa from a case identified outside of West Africa (Thomas Duncan).

----

On July 27 2014 there were 1323 cases, which was more than double the 599 cases of June 24.  That in turn was about double the cases of 309 on May 27. Thus the virus at that point had been doubling in reported cases each month since at least late May.

The official number is almost certainly a significant under-count as many cases are not being reported due to massive resistance to health workers. At the current rate (doubling every 24 27 days increasing in a linear fashion at about 150/day), here are the projections of the number of infected from Sep 23.

Sept. 23 2014 : 6,600
Oct. 19 2014 : 9,936
Nov. 1 2014: 11,736
Dec. 1 2014: 16k
Jan. 1 2015: 21k
Feb. 1 2015: 25.5k
Mar. 1 2015: 30k
Apr. 1 2015: 34.5k
Jun. 1 2015: 39k
Jul. 1 2015: 43.5k
Aug. 1 2015: 48.2k
Sep. 1 2015: 52.8k
Oct. 1 2015: 57.3k
Nov. 1 2015: 62k

As a result of the degradation of the exponential model, the Zero Hour projection no longer makes sense.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2014, 06:45:14 AM »
« Edited: June 17, 2014, 06:53:37 AM by Simfan34 »

Oh dear. This is exactly the sort of place it would spread.

You think I am joking, but we should ship over lots and lots of hand sanitizer.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2014, 11:25:56 PM »

Now officially the deadliest outbreak, ever. And hand sanitizer doesn't do anything to viruses.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2014, 10:57:58 AM »

There aren't too many instances where something actually lives up to the traditional media scare tactics, but the Ebola virus is definitely one. This is the Ebola Zaire strain, which has an average mortality rate of 79%.



(Open the image in a new tab to see a larger view.)
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2014, 10:07:06 PM »

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East. What's the worst that can happen there? ISIS takes over? Who cares? They can always be bombed into oblivion just like the Taliban were.

On the other hand, if ebola goes unchecked in west Africa, who says it can't reach the West? And how, exactly, is it going to be stopped now? We can't rely on overworked, underfunded Medicines Sans Frontieres volunteers to fix this for the world. I'm convinced slow mobilization of Western resources now to fight ebola could be seen as a historic mistake by future generations. I urge everyone to spread awareness of this issue as far and wide as possible, and in the meantime, make a donation to Medicines Sans Frontiers in lieu of a political campaign contribution.
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2014, 03:24:11 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 05:14:56 AM by politicus »

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East. What's the worst that can happen there? ISIS takes over? Who cares? They can always be bombed into oblivion just like the Taliban were.

On the other hand, if Ebola goes unchecked in west Africa, who says it can't reach the West? And how, exactly, is it going to be stopped now? We can't rely on overworked, underfunded Medicines Sans Frontieres volunteers to fix this for the world. I'm convinced slow mobilization of Western resources now to fight Ebola could be seen as a historic mistake by future generations. I urge everyone to spread awareness of this issue as far and wide as possible, and in the meantime, make a donation to Medicines Sans Frontiers in lieu of a political campaign contribution.

So far what has stopped Ebola from spreading and turning into a major epidemic is (paradoxically) the sheer fact that it is so virulent. The infected simply dies before they can spread the disease to that many people. So you need a slightly less virulent version with the infected living longer for this to be a major epidemic.

Is the current outbreak of a less virulent version? (it doesn't seem so, from what I read)

Basically even if it does get to the West, it likely wont be a major problem. Off course it will be terrible for those affected and their families, but the consequences will be smaller than an ISIS victory in Iraq.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2014, 10:31:17 AM »

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East.

Well, it get's little coverage because it affects poor, black people in African countries that nobody cares about.

If there were an Ebola outbreak in the White House, it would certainly get more media coverage.
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Never
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2014, 01:41:32 PM »

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East.

Well, it get's little coverage because it affects poor, black people in African countries that nobody cares about.

If there were an Ebola outbreak in the White House, it would certainly get more media coverage.
^^^^^
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2014, 09:32:25 PM »

Daily Kos gets with the program:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/25/1309531/-Ebola-out-of-control-we-have-reached-the-limits-of-what-we-can-do-says-Doctors-Without-Borders
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2014, 07:24:08 PM »

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East.

Well, it get's little coverage because it affects poor, black people in African countries that nobody cares about.

If there were an Ebola outbreak in the White House, it would certainly get more media coverage.

But they live in the same world we do. Viruses don't know whether somebody is white or black or yellow or brown or red, or how much money is in your bank account. Viruses don't know borders either, those man-made invisible lines. Viruses have only dynamics, and the current trajectory of human response is not sufficient. This is one area where for the developed world to look beyond our own myopia would be an act of supreme self interest.

Also,

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http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/27/326159053/for-a-9-year-old-with-ebola-a-sliver-of-hope-isnt-enough

Think of this story the next time you are feeling sorry for yourself.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2014, 01:54:11 AM »

I am somewhat reminded of the Babylon 5 episode "Confessions and Lamentations".
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2014, 10:42:24 PM »

Lancet warns many cases of ebola may be going undetected, particularly in Sierra Leone:

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dead0man
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2014, 11:47:53 PM »

So what do you think the end game is here Beet, should us non-poors in non-tropical places be worried?
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Beet
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2014, 12:11:47 AM »

So what do you think the end game is here Beet, should us non-poors in non-tropical places be worried?

No one knows what the end game is but the top experts in the field have says that it spreading outside of Africa is a very real possibility. With a symptom free incubation period of 21 days and thousands of people crossing borders every day I don't see what there is to stop it.

The EU has provisioned 500,000 euros and this alone will allow Medicines Sans Frontiers, the Red Cross and the Red Crescent a significant expansion of resources. 500,000 euros! Obama has asked for 500 million for Syria alone, and 3.7 billion for some kids on the border. This is a rounding error we're talking about. Yet it will make a huge difference at this point in time to stop this outbreak. Have you seen pictures of JFK hospital in Liberia? The largest hospital in the country... Google it. This is what we are dealing with here. Last Thursday a pregnant woman died if ebola there and now all the staff are running around like headless chickens, and without protective gear, according to one reporter. $1 million is going to make a huge difference. Six months from now, $1 billion might not be enough. Yet it's like spitting in the wind here...
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2014, 12:49:16 AM »

Part of the problem is the incentives are all Fuked up. 80-90 percent of people die, so people see the sick going into these treatment centers relatively healthy and not come out. So if you're sick, there's no incentive for you to go to these treatment centers. But for the rest of us, we need then to go there to be isolated. That's why if there are experimental treatments they should start trying them now. The downside is pretty low. But these big pharmaceutical companies won't give it a high priority because there's no money in it. Some if the main research on ebola right now is being funded by the Canadian government and the DoD. Because the government knows that this is a national security issue.
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2014, 11:18:24 PM »

WHO can't fully deal with Ebola outbreak, WHO warns

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Panda Express
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2014, 11:32:43 PM »

Everything is going to be okay, dude. This isn't going to be like Contagion.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2014, 11:38:29 PM »

Everything is going to be okay, dude. This isn't going to be like Contagion.

Well not the people who get it.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2014, 03:49:11 AM »

Beet might be overheating. You should try rebooting him.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2014, 06:56:19 PM »

Ha ha guys, keep laughing.

Meanwhile, last week a guy was left outside Liberia's largest hospital puking blood for half an hour while a crowd of onlookers gathered in because health workers were too panicked to figure out what do with him.

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http://allafrica.com/stories/201407170961.html

The kicker is the guy took the taxi to the hospital, potentially leaving his bodily fluids all over it and infecting however is the next person to take that taxi. There was no mention in the article that the taxi was tracked down and de-fumigated. One can easily imagine a person taking a taxi to the airport and getting infected.
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Storebought
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« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2014, 07:19:59 PM »

The introduction of chikungunya (non-fatal, dengue fever like disease) into the western hemisphere is a bigger immediate concern.
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2014, 10:24:23 AM »

The introduction of chikungunya (non-fatal, dengue fever like disease) into the western hemisphere is a bigger immediate concern.

While the symptoms of chikungunya may be similar to ebola for 1 or 2 weeks, ultimately it is not a fatal disease.

~

"The articles I read in the English-language press decry the absence of functioning healthcare infrastructures in the African nations hit by the Ebola virus. But I am not convinced that the United States would do much better. There are a great many things that western medical institutions and personnel do extraordinarily well. We have sophisticated surgical technology and an advanced pharmacopeia of medicines to treat hundreds of diseases. But the bulk of our medical resources go towards curing rather than prevention. What we do dedicate to prevention tends to be limited to proximate factors such as germs and personal behaviors such as smoking that make individuals sick. We also divert resources into campaigns for procedures such as mammograms which detect but do not prevent disease. We pay less attention to poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and, yes, globalization, as root causes of sickness.

...

We need to learn about public health emergencies around the world not only because they might become our emergencies, but also because those emergencies could be better contained and managed if we were to invest our expertise, our attention and our resources into community, national and international health preservation. For a fraction of the money that Western countries have poured into military campaigns in Africa, it would have been possible to support local governments in building functioning public health infrastructures. "

America’s shameful ebola ignorance: The troubling truth about our attitude toward the virus
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Beet
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« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2014, 07:17:28 PM »

Ebola reported in the Democratic Rep. of the Congo

Four Nurses have contracted ebola at hospital in north-central Liberia; the hospital had received a donation from Gus and Hope, a US-based Lutheran Church, as recently as March. In February, patients and nurses had abandoned the hospital due to ebola fears.

Precautions professionals take around ebola; which include full body suits that are burned afterwards (cost of $80 each), two fences six feet apart; a decontamination chamber from which nothing ever comes out except people.

Ebola is rated at a higher biohazard level than anthrax, HIV, SARS and tuberculosis. There are only a few labs around the world rated high enough biohazard level to deal with ebola.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC):

"In addition to BSL-3 considerations, BSL-4 laboratories have the following containment requirements:

Laboratory practices

Change clothing before entering.
Shower upon exiting.
Decontaminate all materials before exiting.
Safety equipment

All work with the microbe must be performed within an appropriate Class III BSC , or by wearing a full body, air-supplied, positive pressure A suit.
Facility construction

The laboratory is in a separate building or in an isolated and restricted zone of the building.
The laboratory has dedicated supply and exhaust air, as well as vacuum lines and decontamination systems."

http://www.cdc.gov/training/quicklearns/biosafety/
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Hemto
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« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2014, 06:39:12 PM »

"There are a great many things that western medical institutions and personnel do extraordinarily well. We have sophisticated surgical technology and an advanced pharmacopeia of medicines to treat hundreds of diseases. But the bulk of our medical resources go towards curing rather than prevention. What we do dedicate to prevention tends to be limited to proximate factors such as germs and personal behaviors such as smoking that make individuals sick. We also divert resources into campaigns for procedures such as mammograms which detect but do not prevent disease. We pay less attention to poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and, yes, globalization, as root causes of sickness."

The author of this does not see that organized healthcare is a big business that makes money off the treatment of diseases not their prevention. This is why the war on cancer is such a hoax: you have the cancer industry and their pawns, the cancer charities, keep blaming the individual for the disease yet they ignore and hide the real causes of the disease, and use known deceptive cancer statistics to fool the public about their alleged beneficial interventions such as mammography, and allocate almost all the research money into more orthodox treatments (read the epilogue of this article: google/bing "A Mammogram Letter The British Medical Journal Censored"). The same way are economic-sociological factors, such as poverty, income inequality, dismissed and disregarded... to hide the real truth from the public, which is that the biggest profiteers (the power elite) bear the vast majority of the blame for most of these diseases.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2014, 07:14:19 PM »

"There are a great many things that western medical institutions and personnel do extraordinarily well. We have sophisticated surgical technology and an advanced pharmacopeia of medicines to treat hundreds of diseases. But the bulk of our medical resources go towards curing rather than prevention. What we do dedicate to prevention tends to be limited to proximate factors such as germs and personal behaviors such as smoking that make individuals sick. We also divert resources into campaigns for procedures such as mammograms which detect but do not prevent disease. We pay less attention to poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and, yes, globalization, as root causes of sickness."

The author of this does not see that organized healthcare is a big business that makes money off the treatment of diseases not their prevention. This is why the war on cancer is such a hoax: you have the cancer industry and their pawns, the cancer charities, keep blaming the individual for the disease yet they ignore and hide the real causes of the disease, and use known deceptive cancer statistics to fool the public about their alleged beneficial interventions such as mammography, and allocate almost all the research money into more orthodox treatments (read the epilogue of this article: google/bing "A Mammogram Letter The British Medical Journal Censored"). The same way are economic-sociological factors, such as poverty, income inequality, dismissed and disregarded... to hide the real truth from the public, which is that the biggest profiteers (the power elite) bear the vast majority of the blame for most of these diseases.

Wow. This is troubling. Thank you for bravely telling the truth. You mention the real causes of cancer are hidden and ignored. What are these real causes?
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