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Beet
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« Reply #100 on: September 04, 2014, 12:06:38 PM »

Meanwhile, the virus is spreading even faster than I had anticipated. If anyone thinks I have been too worried or too concerned about the virus, it appears that the opposite was true, as at the end of July when the last update was just over 1,300 cases, I predicted there would be roughly 3,000 cases by September 1, then revised that to 3,200 cases three weeks ago.

However, the latest W.H.O. update indicates 3,685 cases as of August 31. If the virus is growing at an exponential rate, the exponent is increasing. There approximately half as many cases about 23 or 24 days prior to the 31st, meaning that the doubling time is dropping.
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politicus
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« Reply #101 on: September 04, 2014, 12:34:03 PM »

Meanwhile, the virus is spreading even faster than I had anticipated. If anyone thinks I have been too worried or too concerned about the virus, it appears that the opposite was true, as at the end of July when the last update was just over 1,300 cases, I predicted there would be roughly 3,000 cases by September 1, then revised that to 3,200 cases three weeks ago.

However, the latest W.H.O. update indicates 3,685 cases as of August 31. If the virus is growing at an exponential rate, the exponent is increasing. There approximately half as many cases about 23 or 24 days prior to the 31st, meaning that the doubling time is dropping.

So, given that your estimate has been fairly accurate what is your prognosis for the next 3-6 months?
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Beet
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« Reply #102 on: September 04, 2014, 04:52:26 PM »

I have updated my extrapolations based on the current growth rate (past 24 days). At this rate, there will be 60,000 infections in three months and about 900,000 infections in six months.

If it ever reaches that point, of course W.H.O. will have stopped keeping track.
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dead0man
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« Reply #103 on: September 05, 2014, 03:24:10 AM »

The third American with it is coming to the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha via Offutt AFB this morning.
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Beet
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« Reply #104 on: September 05, 2014, 05:12:44 PM »

Great news... the EU is committing about $200 million to the fight.
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Frodo
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« Reply #105 on: September 07, 2014, 07:09:08 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2014, 07:13:37 PM by Frodo »

Due to earlier epidemics, many in West Africa have acquired immunity (or at least resistance) to Ebola, so it may not be quite as devastating as originally feared.




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Beet
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« Reply #106 on: September 08, 2014, 02:07:37 AM »

It looks like Obama is finally starting to take this seriously:

The US military will join the fight against fast-spreading Ebola in Africa, president Barack Obama said, warning it will be months before the epidemic slows.

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Better late than never, bud. Godspeed!
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #107 on: September 08, 2014, 02:25:40 AM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?
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Beet
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« Reply #108 on: September 08, 2014, 02:36:54 AM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?

What, am I supposed to care about things in the proportion as they are reported on CNN? I determine the importance of situations through logic, not being led mindlessly by what some news executives in Atlanta or NYC deem will generate the most advertising dollars for their corporate entity. I am grateful for the mainstream media for first alerting me that Ebola had reached Conakry in April, after that I followed the story on my own.

The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012), led me to believe back in June that this Ebola situation was more serious than the mainstream media was giving it credit for. The last 3 months have vindicated me again and again, as well as MSF/Doctors Without Borders, which I have been holding up from the beginning as the ones we should be listening to. I am glad that the POTUS is finally coming around.
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Beet
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« Reply #109 on: September 08, 2014, 01:49:11 PM »

Me back on July 19:

The kicker is the guy took the taxi to the hospital, potentially leaving his bodily fluids all over it and infecting however is the next person to take that taxi. There was no mention in the article that the taxi was tracked down and de-fumigated.

W.H.O. today:

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKBN0H31RU20140908

I'd say being six weeks ahead of the World Health Organization based solely on reading news reports is pretty damned impressive. Another thing I deserve accolades on with this.
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Beet
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« Reply #110 on: September 08, 2014, 02:02:47 PM »

Liberia: Ebola Patients Starve At JFK

The three patients, all men, escaped butt naked after they reportedly frightened unarmed security officers assigned to the holding center at Cholera Unit, threatening that if they were not allowed outside, they would transmit the virus by vomiting and urinating on the security.

"The worst of it all during the dramatic scene, it took the Response Unit of the Ebola task Force about four hours to come on the scene to disaffect the area. They were running like though armed robbers were after them, touching everything they came across: children, women and men ran as fast as their feet could take them," he added.

The patients, who was seen crying bitterly for food, narrated that since many of them were taken to the center, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare abandoned the center, leaving them to the grace of God for survival. [...] he later narrated his ordeal that the managerial staff at the center only spray them on a regular basis and provide a meal once a day. "My people, hunger will kill us first before the Ebola Virus can reach its peak in our bodies. Nobody cares for us;, they collect us from our houses with high expectation that the government will provide food and medication, but it is proven to be the contrary," he said in tears.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409081328.html?viewall=1

Jeez. This is like a horror movie. Ebola is raping this country.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #111 on: September 08, 2014, 10:07:54 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #112 on: September 08, 2014, 10:15:56 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee.
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Beet
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« Reply #113 on: September 08, 2014, 10:22:38 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee.


Got me there, Mr. Morden, but why does Panda Express know about this? He/she has only been a member since July.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #114 on: September 08, 2014, 10:28:43 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee.


Got me there, Mr. Morden, but why does Panda Express know about this? He/she has only been a member since July.

I'm a quick learner.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #115 on: September 08, 2014, 10:32:33 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee.


Got me there, Mr. Morden, but why does Panda Express know about this? He/she has only been a member since July.

Panda Express is Aizen's new account:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195520.0

You'd know this if you showed up for moderator board committee meetings.  Tongue
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Beet
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« Reply #116 on: September 08, 2014, 10:32:47 PM »

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?


The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012),

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee.


Got me there, Mr. Morden, but why does Panda Express know about this? He/she has only been a member since July.

I'm a quick learner.

Or you're a previous poster known as Aizen who was staunchly anti-Hillary? That explains the vendetta against me.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #117 on: September 08, 2014, 10:38:54 PM »

But getting back on track regarding ebola, Mr. Moderate summed it up quite well

Africa has a major problem with distrust of medical workers, disobedience of quarantine, and a failure to understand the mechanism by which disease spreads. We're separated by the disease by a huge ocean (both literally and culturally).

Let's be realistic about the numbers. Since the outbreak began, there have been 932 deaths due to Ebola. In the same time frame, 300,000 Africans were lost to Malaria and 600,000 were lost to Tuberculosis. And, of course, we'll likely see another 1,000,000+ Africans die to HIV this year.

It's a scary-sounding disease, but it's not a real threat. If there's any contagious disease to be concerned with in the U.S., it's the flu. It'll kill thousands of Americans this year.
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Beet
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« Reply #118 on: September 08, 2014, 10:45:08 PM »

But getting back on track regarding ebola, Mr. Moderate summed it up quite well

Africa has a major problem with distrust of medical workers, disobedience of quarantine, and a failure to understand the mechanism by which disease spreads. We're separated by the disease by a huge ocean (both literally and culturally).

Let's be realistic about the numbers. Since the outbreak began, there have been 932 deaths due to Ebola. In the same time frame, 300,000 Africans were lost to Malaria and 600,000 were lost to Tuberculosis. And, of course, we'll likely see another 1,000,000+ Africans die to HIV this year.

It's a scary-sounding disease, but it's not a real threat. If there's any contagious disease to be concerned with in the U.S., it's the flu. It'll kill thousands of Americans this year.

The difference is that those are all known diseases that have more or less had the same pattern for decades. AIDS was terrifying in the early 1980s, as it should have been, and it eventually became a gigantic catastrophe. George W. Bush deserves credit, both personally and as a president, for not writing off Africa as a lost cause and putting American money into a cause which did a lot of good for very little personal or national benefit.

Ebola is worrying precisely because the pattern of infection is totally new and unknown. It is unknown what the ultimate consequences of the current outbreak are going to be. There is no precedent. All we have is the current exponential growth rates and the lack of any particular reason that I can think of as to how the disease might be controlled; even if it says in the three countries at the epicenter currently; still quite a catastrophe. If we had an Ebola outbreak of this size every year, as with Malaria and Tuberculosis, it certainly would be less worrying.
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Beet
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« Reply #119 on: September 10, 2014, 02:44:14 PM »

Africa has a major problem with distrust of medical workers, disobedience of quarantine, and a failure to understand the mechanism by which disease spreads. We're separated by the disease by a huge ocean (both literally and culturally).

Let's be realistic about the numbers. Since the outbreak began, there have been 932 deaths due to Ebola. In the same time frame, 300,000 Africans were lost to Malaria and 600,000 were lost to Tuberculosis. And, of course, we'll likely see another 1,000,000+ Africans die to HIV this year.

It's a scary-sounding disease, but it's not a real threat. If there's any contagious disease to be concerned with in the U.S., it's the flu. It'll kill thousands of Americans this year.

Also, some other stuff that may have been too obvious to mention before. The fatality rate for Ebola is orders of magnitude higher than than these other diseases. In 2012, there were 200 million cases of malaria and only 627,000 deaths, a 0.6% fatality rate. And most of those people probably died because they didn't receive the proper treatment. One third of the world population is thought to be infected with Tuberculosis bacteria. 90% are asymptomatic. Of those "incident cases" that do occur, among the HIV-negative population about 1 in 9 resulted in a fatality. AIDS was highly fatal in the 1980s until the mid-1990s, but is now treatable. Survival time increases to up to a decade and with proper, early treatment the death rate falls by 80%.

In contrast, Ebola's death rate in the current outbreak is between 65%-75% within a very short amount of time. The official Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is currently about 50%-55%, but that is diluted by the inclusion of newly reported cases that have not yet had time to resolve. If Ebola ever became as common as Malaria, for instance, it would likely kill more people than World War I, the Spanish Flu, the Holocaust and World War II combined. The gruesomeness of Ebola cannot be denied either. Bleeding everywhere, vomiting out your internals, and melting organs are not things anyone likes to contemplate.

It's ironic that the article Mr. Moderate links concludes by blaming the "hysterical" media for people's fear of Ebola, but I have made my disdain for the mainstream media clear throughout this thread. If I followed the media, 80% of my posting here would have been about the few cases of Ebola patients brought to the U.S. for treatment (or the constant reports of "suspected cases" here and there), since that is mostly what the U.S. media covers. Heck, if I followed the media 80% of my posting here would be on ISIS and not Ebola. I am not concerned about Ebola because of the mainstream media. What I follow & have followed from the beginning are available throughout this thread to see: (1) Medicins Sans Frontiers / Doctors Without Borders (2) The governments of Liberia and Sierra Leone (3) The World Health Organization (4) The Centers for Disease Control (5) Direct eyewitness accounts of events happening in the ground. If you listen to these people and groups, which have more knowledge about this situation than any in the world, you will see that they are worried, and have been for some time.

The apathy and resistance to caring about Ebola, on the other hand, is driven IMHO by a quadrifecta of human follies that progressives should abhor the most: (1) traditional, religious superstition and ignorance. It is because of ignorance and being mislead by traditions, pastors, witch doctors, etc. that is the most damaging problem causing Ebola to spread. All the doctors and supplies in the world will not fix it unless people get educated, and begin believing in the existence of Ebola relying on scientifically-backed methods to control Ebola (2) classism. Rich people and those of us in rich countries do not care as much about Ebola precisely because we think our better equipped hospitals and medical systems will protect us. The subtext of this is that it is ok if the poorest people in the world die of Ebola for lack of good health care systems, as long as the rich are protected. (3) racism. Let's face it, if this was happening in Europe or Japan there would be a lot more attention to it. We have a fatalistic view of Africa that the place is a giant garbage dump and perpetually hopeless. This couldn't be farther from the truth as the continent is finally starting to pull itself up. But that would be cut short by Ebola. (4) nationalism. I am always amused at how the panic over Ebola starts to jump as soon as it is reported in another "country." As far as I am concerned, countries do not matter when it comes to natural phenomena, such as global warming, or Ebola. Well at least, they do not matter except to the extent that they influence human behaviors. But there is nothing magical about Ebola crossing borders. Unlike with wars or economics, being on one side of the border or the other won't protect you.

Here is quote from the Liberian Minister of Defence, addressing the U.N. Security Council:

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I assure you, CNN did not put him up to this.
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Beet
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« Reply #120 on: September 10, 2014, 10:13:01 PM »

U.S. Plans Worker ‘Surge’ to Aid Ebola Effort in Africa

The U.S. is planning a “surge” of federal workers into West African countries hit by Ebola, and has hired the air-ambulance company that evacuated two infected U.S. citizens in July to support them.

About 1,400 U.S. government employees are in the region now, and more are on the way, the State Department said in a contract document posted today. As workers for global aid groups have fled, “the vacuum is increasingly being filled” by U.S. aid providers, the document said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/u-s-plans-worker-surge-to-aid-ebola-effort-in-africa.html

That's a lot more than I'd thought... previously we had reports of up to 100 C.D.C. workers. This feels a lot more significant. A lot more of them are also being repatriated after being exposed to Ebola than is being reported. We only hear about the confirmed cases.

In the worst case scenario here, Africa may be partially recolonized. The governments here have no operational capacity.
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Beet
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« Reply #121 on: September 13, 2014, 05:46:13 PM »

U.S. State Department orders 160,000 hazmat suits for Ebola

The best article written about the current outbreak thus far:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2014/10/ebola-virus-epidemic-containment#
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Hamster
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« Reply #122 on: September 13, 2014, 08:35:11 PM »

I've created a sub on reddit to track news of the Ebola epidemic. Give it a look and consider cross-posting articles there.
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Beet
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« Reply #123 on: September 15, 2014, 01:18:17 PM »

Me on July 26:

I think one thing we've learned from the West Africa situation is that, when there's an ebola outbreak, sending people to the hospital is not the best place to go. Hospitals are needed for normal patients of normal ailments; a critical mass of ebola patients at a hospital, and pretty soon other patients will not be willing to go anymore. Ebola isolation units are special facilities that ideally should be set up away from population centers, and well defended.

Samaritan's Purse today:

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http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/are-hospitals-part-ebola-problem-charity-wants-new-strategy-n202486
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njwes
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« Reply #124 on: September 15, 2014, 08:32:03 PM »

Beet, do you have any particular feelings on Samaritan's Purse as an organization? I've donated to them recently cause it seemed like they've been doing good work in northwestern Africa (among other places) in the midst of this epidemic.

But if there are other NGOs you think are doing a better job or are more worthy of donations I'd definitely like to know.
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