The Ebola Thread

[politicus]

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East. What's the worst that can happen there? ISIS takes over? Who cares? They can always be bombed into oblivion just like the Taliban were.

On the other hand, if Ebola goes unchecked in west Africa, who says it can't reach the West? And how, exactly, is it going to be stopped now? We can't rely on overworked, underfunded Medicines Sans Frontieres volunteers to fix this for the world. I'm convinced slow mobilization of Western resources now to fight Ebola could be seen as a historic mistake by future generations. I urge everyone to spread awareness of this issue as far and wide as possible, and in the meantime, make a donation to Medicines Sans Frontiers in lieu of a political campaign contribution.

So far what has stopped Ebola from spreading and turning into a major epidemic is (paradoxically) the sheer fact that it is so virulent. The infected simply dies before they can spread the disease to that many people. So you need a slightly less virulent version with the infected living longer for this to be a major epidemic.

Is the current outbreak of a less virulent version? (it doesn't seem so, from what I read)

Basically even if it does get to the West, it likely wont be a major problem. Off course it will be terrible for those affected and their families, but the consequences will be smaller than an ISIS victory in Iraq.

[politicus]

Meanwhile, the virus is spreading even faster than I had anticipated. If anyone thinks I have been too worried or too concerned about the virus, it appears that the opposite was true, as at the end of July when the last update was just over 1,300 cases, I predicted there would be roughly 3,000 cases by September 1, then revised that to 3,200 cases three weeks ago.

However, the latest W.H.O. update indicates 3,685 cases as of August 31. If the virus is growing at an exponential rate, the exponent is increasing. There approximately half as many cases about 23 or 24 days prior to the 31st, meaning that the doubling time is dropping.

So, given that your estimate has been fairly accurate what is your prognosis for the next 3-6 months?

[politicus]

The Danish pharmaceutical company Bavarian Nordic has made an agreement with American Janssen Biotech about development of an Ebola vaccine. Animal tests has shown that their MVA-BN vaccine combined with Janssen's Advaxc gives a 100% protection against Ebola, and both companies are therefore eager to test a combo vaccine on humans. BN stocks up 21% on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange after the news.