2014 California State Controller

[TX Conservative Dem]

Anyone know if there's polling in the California State Controller's contest for November?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Do we even know who's in the Top 2 definitively yet?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Heck if I know because Our Campaigns didn't put any checks on who made it out of the Top 2 on their website.

[Nutmeg]

The candidates are Democrat John Perez and Republican Ashley Swearengin.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Wondering if Perez is the favorite in November?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, obviously the Democratic candidate is the favorite.

[IceSpear]

The candidates are Democrat John Perez and Republican Ashley Swearengin.

Betty Yee is currently in 2nd place by <100 votes.

[Maxwell]

Is Ashley Swearengin a good candidate? She is the mayor of Fresno, which is a pretty big city.

[jimrtex]

Is Ashley Swearengin a good candidate? She is the mayor of Fresno, which is a pretty big city.

She is very photogenic.

It could help that it is a snoozer of an election, with no senatorial race, and the gubernatorial race non-competitive.  Republicans are more likely to VBM, and more likely to vote.  City elections are non-partisan in California, so there is the potential for city council members and other mayors saying nice things about her. Her emphasis has been on economic development, which could help with independent voters.

[Хahar 🤔]

Elections in California are routinely uncompetitive. Exactly two Republicans have won statewide elections in this century, and they both won as a result of the unusual circumstances of the 2003 recall. Perez and Yee are both more visible candidates from larger cities, but more importantly they're both Democrats. Nobody in this thread has given any reason that this race would be different from any of the other statewide races, all of which Democrats will win easily.

[jimrtex]

Elections in California are routinely uncompetitive. Exactly two Republicans have won statewide elections in this century, and they both won as a result of the unusual circumstances of the 2003 recall. Perez and Yee are both more visible candidates from larger cities, but more importantly they're both Democrats. Nobody in this thread has given any reason that this race would be different from any of the other statewide races, all of which Democrats will win easily.

Steve Cooley was within 100,000 votes running for AG in 2010.

What was the relationship between Steve Poizner's election in 2006 to the Davis recall?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, and Cooley was the best Republican candidate possible. He was a popular elected official in Los Angeles County, which meant that he had name recognition in by far the largest county in the state, a Democratic stronghold. Furthermore, he was running in what was a very Republican year elsewhere and against an outspoken left-winger in Kamala Harris. If any Republican was ever going to win, it was Cooley, and yet he still lost. That, more than anything else, is what convinced me that Republicans can't win in normal circumstances in California barring major structural change.

Poizner's opponent in 2006 was Cruz Bustamante, who was widely disliked among Democrats for his perceived disloyalty in running for governor in 2003. It was certainly no secret at the time that that played a major role in his defeat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yee probably gets it, although Perez still has a little chance. The 2nd Republican is too far behind though. Crazy how close the Republicans came to getting both spots, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, and Cooley was the best Republican candidate possible. He was a popular elected official in Los Angeles County, which meant that he had name recognition in by far the largest county in the state, a Democratic stronghold. Furthermore, he was running in what was a very Republican year elsewhere and against an outspoken left-winger in Kamala Harris. If any Republican was ever going to win, it was Cooley, and yet he still lost. That, more than anything else, is what convinced me that Republicans can't win in normal circumstances in California barring major structural change.

Poizner's opponent in 2006 was Cruz Bustamante, who was widely disliked among Democrats for his perceived disloyalty in running for governor in 2003. It was certainly no secret at the time that that played a major role in his defeat.

Angelides didn't run in 2003, and didn't do so great, either. It's ironic that 2006 was the best year for California Republicans this disaster and 2010 was the worst year.

[Хahar 🤔]

Right, Angelides's issue was that he faced an incumbent in Schwarzenegger. The reasons for the two Republican victories in 2006 were separate, but they both related to the recall.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Bustamante was a terrible statewide officeholder.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yee has a 659 vote lead. 6053 of the 8878 unprocessed votes statewide (not all of which will result in votes for Controller, let alone Yee or Perez) are from tiny Lake county. That represents close to half of the total votes for Lake county. Perez is up 7.4% over Yee there, so extrapolating that might narrow the lead by 450 votes. The county with the next most votes, Santa Cruz, has a Yee lead. Still too close to call, but Yee will probably win it.

[politicallefty]

At this point, Yee seems to be a near lock based on her margin and the outstanding ballots. I see no reason why she shouldn't be considered the heavy favourite in November.

[Dixie Reborn]

Wondering if Perez is the favorite in November?

The race should be safe for whomever is chosen as the Democratic nominee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At this point, Yee seems to be a near lock based on her margin and the outstanding ballots. I see no reason why she shouldn't be considered the heavy favourite in November.

Yee will probably get second place, but despite it being 26 days since the election, there are still too many outstanding votes to be sure.

[IceSpear]

At this point, Yee seems to be a near lock based on her margin and the outstanding ballots. I see no reason why she shouldn't be considered the heavy favourite in November.

Yee will probably get second place, but despite it being 26 days since the election, there are still too many outstanding votes to be sure.

I never understood why it takes some places more than a month after the election to finish counting ballots.

[Flake]

At this point, Yee seems to be a near lock based on her margin and the outstanding ballots. I see no reason why she shouldn't be considered the heavy favourite in November.

Yee will probably get second place, but despite it being 26 days since the election, there are still too many outstanding votes to be sure.

I never understood why it takes some places more than a month after the election to finish counting ballots.

More than two and a half million people voted in that primary, give them time.