2004: What if evangelical vote was the same percent in 04 as in 00?

[chris allen]

We're all aware that the evangelical born again vote is what gave Bush the edge in 2004. Just for "what if" discussion, that the evangelical vote was the same % in 2004 as it was in 2000. Also take "gay marriage" out of the equation.

Would John Kerry have won or would have Bush still squeaked by? What states would Kerry have picked up as a result?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Absolutely not, Kerry would've won NM, IA, FL, OH....it wouldn't have even been close.  It was those whackos that won it for Bush. 

[Keystone Phil]

Absolutely not, Kerry would've won NM

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

[Jake]

Why do you think you lose?  Whackos?  Have fun being the minority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

If by Evangelical you mean Fundamentalist, you're correct.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

If by Evangelical you mean Fundamentalist, you're correct.

There are very few non-fundamentalist evangelicals here. If you're talking about Evangelical Lutherans, I'm one and we are NOT evangelical. It's one of those weird name things, but we're a rather liberal mainline denomination, not an evangelical one.

[PBrunsel]

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

To tell you the truth I don't think it was that close to begin with.

[jokerman]

I'm sure Kerry would have won.  I'll do some research on the matter.

[WMS]

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming?

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully?

[minionofmidas]

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming?

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully?

Definitely.
Well, actually, Coburn wouldn't have gotten past the primary.
And Kerry would've at least won some counties in the state.

[WMS]

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming?

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully?

Definitely.
Well, actually, Coburn wouldn't have gotten past the primary.
And Kerry would've at least won some counties in the state.

Yeah, those were some extreme results...mind you, these same people elected a Democrat to the House in SE Oklahoma, so it makes for some interesting ticket-splitting...

[tarheel-leftist85]

VA-49.7/49.5
WV-52/47
NC-52/48
SC-55/44
GA-55/44
AL-63/35 (had little to do with evangelicals)
MS-57/43
LA-52/47
TN-52/47
FL-49.6/49.6
AR-49.8/49.2
MO-49.7/49.3
Kerry gets 52+% in MI, MN & PA; 51+% in WI; and 50+% in IA.  Stays the same in most of the Northeast, Pacific Coast.  Utah is still Bush 70+%--I don't think they consider themselves evangelicals.

[Platypus]

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

Is it just me or is the whole Evangelical Guatemala thing scaring you, too?

[12th Doctor]

We're all aware that the evangelical born again vote is what gave Bush the edge in 2004. Just for "what if" discussion, that the evangelical vote was the same % in 2004 as it was in 2000. Also take "gay marriage" out of the equation.

Would John Kerry have won or would have Bush still squeaked by? What states would Kerry have picked up as a result?

In case you weren't aware, Charlie Cook states clearly in the Cook Report for the 2004 election that the number of evangelicals who voted in this election showed a 0% change of the total electorate from 2000.  I should know, I heard it from his mouth three times.