Obama dies. Does Hilary still run?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

If Obama died somehow during the time between now and the primary season, would Hilary still run?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Why wouldn't she?

[Fritz]

Why wouldn't she?

Because she'd be running against the sitting president (Joe Biden) in the primaries.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Why wouldn't she?

Because she'd be running against the sitting president (Joe Biden) in the primaries.

Right, that slipped my mind somehow. I'd hope she still be favored, but America is stupid and would probably rally around the clown. So I guess I'd lean no.

[Mr. Morden]

If it happens after Clinton has announced her candidacy and Biden has announced that he isn't running, would Obama's death really prompt Biden to say "Never mind, I change my mind.  Now that I'm the incumbent president, I'm going to run for a full term.", thus squeezing Clinton out of the race?  There would certainly be some backlash to doing that, no matter how much goodwill Biden has accrued because of the national tragedy.

[badgate]

If it happens after Clinton has announced her candidacy and Biden has announced that he isn't running, would Obama's death really prompt Biden to say "Never mind, I change my mind.  Now that I'm the incumbent president, I'm going to run for a full term.", thus squeezing Clinton out of the race?  There would certainly be some backlash to doing that, no matter how much goodwill Biden has accrued because of the national tragedy.

Not if Hillary backed out of the race and then Biden announces for a full term.

[Knives]

She still runs and wins.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Why wouldn't she?

Because she'd be running against the sitting president (Joe Biden) in the primaries.

Right, that slipped my mind somehow. I'd hope she still be favored, but America is stupid and would probably rally around the clown. So I guess I'd lean no.

Joe Biden has the image of a clown but this is not altogether fair. He isn't a genius, but he has a workmanlike mind in a good rather than a bad way. He is also probably better on the issues than Hillary is.

[morgieb]

Depends when. If it happens in the next 6 months or so though, no.

[IceSpear]

She still runs and wins.

This. Biden becoming the incumbent president isn't going to erase a 50-60 point polling deficit.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

She still runs and wins.

This. Biden becoming the incumbent president isn't going to erase a 50-60 point polling deficit.

when's the last time someone knocked off an incumbent president in the primaries? ted kennedy didn't pull it off. ronald reagan couldn't pull it off. and biden would be in a substantially better situation than either carter or ford.

[Nichlemn]

I think it matters how and when Obama dies. Assassinated tomorrow by Al Qaeda? There'd be a big 9/11-esque effect that would probably cause Biden to become untouchable. Dropped dead of a heart attack in late 2015? If Clinton had already invested a whole lot into running, I don't see Biden suddenly becoming the nominal incumbent having much of an effect.

[SWE]

She still runs and wins.

This. Biden becoming the incumbent president isn't going to erase a 50-60 point polling deficit.

when's the last time someone knocked off an incumbent president in the primaries? ted kennedy didn't pull it off. ronald reagan couldn't pull it off. and biden would be in a substantially better situation than either carter or ford.

Franklin Pierce

[Never]

Biden could complicate Hillary's candidacy, but I don't see Biden becoming the Lyndon Johnson to JFK or anything like that.

He would probably fill the remainder of Obama's term, and to answer OP's question, Hillary would still run.

[IceSpear]

She still runs and wins.

This. Biden becoming the incumbent president isn't going to erase a 50-60 point polling deficit.

when's the last time someone knocked off an incumbent president in the primaries? ted kennedy didn't pull it off. ronald reagan couldn't pull it off. and biden would be in a substantially better situation than either carter or ford.

In Carter's case, he was actually elected president. Kennedy/Reagan never led Carter/Ford by 50-60 points in the polls, and despite this they still did respectably, even if they didn't win. Just because something has never happened in an extremely small sample size of elections doesn't mean it CAN'T happen. More and more of these "no president has been elected with/without ____" assertions become invalidated every single election (according to many of them, Obama should not have been re-elected). Biden becoming president through a freak accident is not going to change the political calculus of millions of Democratic voters.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Biden wants to be President....if he becomes President that way, I suspect he'd have no burning desire to run any more

[Maxwell]

Why wouldn't she?

Because she'd be running against the sitting president (Joe Biden) in the primaries.

Right, that slipped my mind somehow. I'd hope she still be favored, but America is stupid and would probably rally around the clown. So I guess I'd lean no.

Biden has a far far more significant record than Hillary has.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Hillary wouldn't want to put the country through a bloody primary like that if that were to happen, so no.  In all likelihood, Biden would run for a full term, cruise to the nomination without significant opposition, and win the general election on the wave of a 'national unity' vote, especially if foreign terrorists or figures were to have anything to do with Obama's hypothetical death.  (In this scenario, there would also be far more interest in the search and trial of the would-be assassin, so politics wouldn't be on top of the average voter's list.)  Hillary's life in politics would effectively be over.

Now, if Hillary were to run anyway?  She would probably lose.  50-point deficit, perhaps, but running what is supposed to be a positive campaign in the midst of a national tragedy wouldn't do any good for her image at all, and Democrats would quickly disown her.  (The Republican primary would happen as normal, but the rhetoric would be toned down significantly.)

I kind of had to think about this for a while, but yes, I can see a Lyndon Johnson-type thing playing out again depending upon the circumstances.  So yeah, I'm pretty much with Nichlemn on this one.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The idea of Biden being President makes me physically ill.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The idea of Biden being President makes me physically ill.

How would a Biden presidency be much different from a Hillary presidency, substance-wise?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The idea of Biden being President makes me physically ill.

How would a Biden presidency be much different from a Hillary presidency, substance-wise?

Probably not that different at all. I dislike the man and find his demeanor unfit for the Presidency.