Hillary vs Romney - discuss with maps

[eric82oslo]

Well, as thread title says; please feel free to add maps.

Is there any way Romney could outmanouver Hillary in New Hampshire? The recent poll from the state suggests there could be an opening. I guess he could be pretty competitive in Colorado as well, right? After all, his VP choice is still leading Hillary there by a decent margin.

Would there be a 47% gender gap in this race?

[Never]

Honestly, with a candidate as strong as Hillary, I think it would be hard for Romney to win any Northeastern states, even if Christie were his running-mate. On the other hand, I don't think that Hillary is strong in Colorado, so Romney can probably peel off that state if he is running a top-notch campiagn (which I assume would be necessary for him in order to win the Republican presidential nomination for the second time in a row).

Still, Romney would probably lose respectably to Hillary compared to what we are seeing with other Republican options:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/Virginia Senator Mark Warner - 294 electoral votes - 52% of popular vote

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney/New Jersey Governor Chris Christie - 244 electoral votes - 47% of popular vote (how ironic)

[tarheel-leftist85]

bloodbath.  she might even be able to merge the ascendants with her '08 coaltion for a Johnson-esque landslide:

Obie's bros at Goldman Sachs picked him as the obvious bad cop and proven electoral dud.  Only pious cowbois can beat Dembots. End of story.

[IceSpear]

I don't see Romney as a strong candidate at all. He looked good next to Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain, but that's not much of an accomplishment. His silver spoon syndrome, hardline immigration stance (self deportation) combined with Clinton nostalgia and the fact that some white people who couldn't get over their racial hangups about Obama would have no problem voting for Hillary makes me think this would be a landslide. The GOP is probably much better off with Jeb, Walker, or Christie (assuming the latter two survive their problems).

Clinton - 402
Romney - 136

[Maxwell]

Hillary probably beats him by more than she beat Obama by. I'd say the map looks like Obama-McCain, minus Indiana, plus Missouri, Arkansas.

[Hamster]

Romney won't do any better the second time around.

[RR1997]

Hillary Clinton: 354 EV's
Mitt Romney: 184 EV's

[Hamster]

What's the argument for Romney winning Colorado but losing Arkansas?

[RR1997]

What's the argument for Romney winning Colorado but losing Arkansas?

Clinton has been polling poorly in Colorado.

[Hamster]

What's the argument for Romney winning Colorado but losing Arkansas?

Clinton has been polling poorly in Colorado.

Ok, but if she's doing so well that she can make up a 24% gap in Arkansas, she shouldn't lose a swing state like Colorado. The fact that Bill is from there really doesn't matter. Have you seen her poll numbers in Arkansas lately?

[RR1997]

What's the argument for Romney winning Colorado but losing Arkansas?

Clinton has been polling poorly in Colorado.

Ok, but if she's doing so well that she can make up a 24% gap in Arkansas, she shouldn't lose a swing state like Colorado. The fact that Bill is from there really doesn't matter. Have you seen her poll numbers in Arkansas lately?

Most polling in Arkansas shows Clinton in the lead.

[Rockefeller GOP]

What's the argument for Romney winning Colorado but losing Arkansas?

Clinton has been polling poorly in Colorado.

Ok, but if she's doing so well that she can make up a 24% gap in Arkansas, she shouldn't lose a swing state like Colorado. The fact that Bill is from there really doesn't matter. Have you seen her poll numbers in Arkansas lately?

Most polling in Arkansas shows Clinton in the lead.

Seriously.  Most people in Arkansas still identify as Democrats, and they've shown no resistance to keeping Democrats around at the local level ... There was an obvious reason these folks didn't come out for Obama.  In 2000 and 2004, they had a Southern Republican and two seemingly out of touch Democrats, and it was still close.  In 2008 and 2012, it was surprisingly not close.  I think a Hillary/Romney map would look like this:

He wouldn't win over anyone that didn't vote for him in 2012, and he'd lose significant support from some working class Whites who held their nose in 2012 and voted for him over Obama.  It'd be a massacre.

[SWE]

Hillary probably beats him by more than she beat Obama by. I'd say the map looks like Obama-McCain, minus Indiana, plus Missouri, Arkansas.

[tmthforu94]

Romney has improved as a candidate even from 2012 - MITT helped show Mitt Romney's true side, not what the media falsely portrayed. The elitist argument will carry even less weight against a candidate like Hillary.

Voters will be fatigued with Obama's policies in 2016 and will be looking for something new - Hillary doesn't bring that.

[The Mikado]

The grim truth for Romney is that he could pick up every state on Tmth's map except Ohio and Clinton would still win, and that he's an exceptionally poor fit for Ohio.

[pbrower2a]

Barack Obama lost Indiana and Missouri by large margins in 2012 because he did not campaign there. The Senate seats of those two seats meant more to him that year than their electoral votes (a wise decision on the part of the President).  Those two states will be much closer in 2016 even if Hillary fails to win them.

Indiana becomes close for Democratic nominees only in nationwide wins.   

[henster]

Hillary won't win Arkansas she is too liberal and tied too closely to Obama. I can't see why either Indiana or Missouri would flip for her either she is not a social conservative. And in the unlikely case of a Hillary v. Romney matchups she probably only flips NC maybe or potentially lose a couple of Obama states CO.

[Maistre]

Elohim in his infinite wisdom decides to strike down all of the gentiles a month before the general election as to avoid a 2012 outcome, when Americans disobeyed his divine attempt at making the White Horse prophecy a reality. With Hillary struck down by the almighty, Democrats desperately nominate Harry Reid. Jon Huntsman runs an independent campaign, which splits the anti-Romney vote allowing Romney to win in a landslide.

Mitt Romney then saves the Constitution from destruction, erects a monument of John D. Lee in Mountain Meadows, and then ascends to heaven the minute his term ends where he is given ownership of his own planet.

[NHLiberal]

Well, as thread title says; please feel free to add maps.

Is there any way Romney could outmanouver Hillary in New Hampshire? The recent poll from the state suggests there could be an opening. I guess he could be pretty competitive in Colorado as well, right? After all, his VP choice is still leading Hillary there by a decent margin.

Would there be a 47% gender gap in this race?

That's pretty false

[NHLiberal]

But everyone knows that this is the 2016 map regardless of the Republican so long as Hillary is the Democratic nominee

[Mr. Illini]

357 / 181

[tarheel-leftist85]

[Rockefeller GOP]

With a Clinton on the ticket - even Hillary - I can't see SC falling before WV.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I'm one of the most anti-Hillary people here, but...

Mitt Romney cannot, under normal circumstances, beat Hillary Clinton, or any other credible Democrat.  This would be my prediction, it could be a whole lot worse than that.

[Skill and Chance]

Still a Hillary win, but probably closer than 2012: