New Zealand general election, 20th September 2014

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm sure I remember a thread for this election; but it appears to have vanished into the æther.

The Labour leader David Cunliffe is in deep sh**t. A risky pick (opposed by the caucus), he has not quite turned Labour's fortunes around. Recently he labelled members of his party that don't support him as scabs; and his anti-crony capitalism platform was undermined by a leaked letter supporting a controversial Chinese businessman gain citizenship.

Fairfax Ipsos have recently released this astonishing poll:

National : 56.5
Labour: 23.2
Green: 11.9
NZ First: 3.2 (below threshold)

That would be the worst and best results in their party's histories for Labour and National respectively. National could sit very comfortably in a majority.

Also ACT's one MP has resigned in disgrace (no by-election though), the Maori electorates are due for abolition (but not before the election I think?) and the Greens support remain constant.

[politicus]

Frodo created a "who would you vote for" thread on the Individual Politics board. I don't think there ever was a NZ 2014 general election thread.

How did Labour manage to get that unpopular?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fairfax-Ipsos usually has a pretty hefty National lean compared to other firms, but, yeah, Cunliffe has blown it.

[politicus]

The Labour leader Mark David Cunliffe is in deep sh**t.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Labour leader Mark David Cunliffe is in deep sh**t.

Lol I'm a dumbarse

[DC Al Fine]

Why does New Zealand poll like a FPTP country despite having MMP? Take National's phenomenal result. They completely own the right. One would think that ACT/Conservatives/NZ First would be polling reasonably well, but they aren't. How have they managed to keep free marketeers/the religious right/the anti-immigration types in the tent?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the many new parties of the right and centre-but-lol-actually-right of the 1990s were run by crooks and lunatics.

[politicus]

Because the many new parties of the right and centre-but-lol-actually-right of the 1990s were run by crooks and lunatics.

Sure, but that still doesn't really explain why there hasn't been any serious competition to the Nationals.

Generally its difficult to keep the centre-right united in a non-FPTP system, so "How have they managed to keep free marketeers/the religious right/the anti-immigration types in the tent?" is an interesting question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sure, but that still doesn't really explain why there hasn't been any serious competition to the Nationals.

There was. Look at elections from a decade ago.

[politicus]

Sure, but that still doesn't really explain why there hasn't been any serious competition to the Nationals.

There was. Look at elections from a decade ago.

Yeah, 2002 is 17,5% for ACT and NZ First combined, but by serious I was refering to a non-clown/crook/lunatic challenge.

I suppose you could say that the Nats have been lucky being challenged by low quality opponents, but that is in itself an interesting fact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose you could say that the Nats have been lucky being challenged by low quality opponents, but that is in itself an interesting fact.

Very New Zealand though. I have immense affection for the country (and have relatives there), but they elected Robert Muldoon as their Prime Minister once. And, worse, re-elected him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11287736

Cunliffe makes a speech, which seems pretty passionate, but contains a gaffe - of sorts - that can be taken momentously out of context: that he is "sorry to be a man".

He also has ruled out having any Internet-Mana politicians as ministers.

On a bright side, Labour has jumped up to its last election numbers in the last three polls. Of course, that can hardly be claimed to be "fantastic news".

[You kip if you want to...]

Writ day tomorrow.

Safe national.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite probably, but a big political scandal has just broken...

[You kip if you want to...]

Quite probably, but a big political scandal has just broken...

I've heard. Not nearly big enough to make Cunliffe Labour electable though, surely.

[BaconBacon96]

John Key's been a good Prime Minister and his government's been a good government. They deserve to be reelected.

[Lurker]

John Key's been a good Prime Minister and his government's been a good government. They deserve to be reelected.

Why is he (apparently) so extremely popular?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just when you think everything is straightforward...

The universe finds a way...

[EPG]

Meh, it's the Guardian, they operate by providing a rose-tinted view of the world for liberal leftists. Dig deep in the article and find

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[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Meh, it's the Guardian, they operate by providing a rose-tinted view of the world for liberal leftists. Dig deep in the article and find

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I read that, but these things take time to settle in.

"liberal-leftists" seriously? Let's lift the discourse please.

[EPG]

Meh, it's the Guardian, they operate by providing a rose-tinted view of the world for liberal leftists. Dig deep in the article and find

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I read that, but these things take time to settle in.

"liberal-leftists" seriously? Let's lift the discourse please.

But more of the time, people don't care about politicians' spats, especially when the method of revelation (hacking) lends itself to accusations of moral equivalence. I don't think liberal or leftist are derogatory terms, and I think they describe the Guardian's audience pretty well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Meh, it's the Guardian, they operate by providing a rose-tinted view of the world for liberal leftists. Dig deep in the article and find

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I read that, but these things take time to settle in.

"liberal-leftists" seriously? Let's lift the discourse please.

But more of the time, people don't care about politicians' spats, especially when the method of revelation (hacking) lends itself to accusations of moral equivalence. I don't think liberal or leftist are derogatory terms, and I think they describe the Guardian's audience pretty well.

Although they might not care about the spats themselves, the struggles of a politician getting out of such a scandal is dangerous. They inevitably wriggle and perjure themselves; and, especially in an electoral campaign where the Key government wants to highlight its record, the scandal starts to dominate headlines and define politicians. Similar to "Bridgegate" in the US, a petty action can balloon into a nightmare for Christie. These sort of campaigns run the risk of slowly dragging on and on, which is basically the worst thing to happen to a politician. Key has already dealt with the Minister for Justice's troubles in a remarkably inept way, which shows some incompetence the media and opposition would love to exploit more.

Now, we just wait and see how soft Key's support is. Though the Nationals are almost assured a plurality, this scandal brings the hopes of crushing majorities from July down. Perhaps we might see some weird tactical voting from Labour/Greens for NZ First to ensure they remain above threshold, and force a minority government.

[Simfan34]

Meh, it's the Guardian, they operate by providing a rose-tinted view of the world for liberal leftists. Dig deep in the article and find

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Typical Grauniad...

[GAworth]

http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/decision14/latest-political-poll-big-blow-for-john-key

Conservatives close to threshold at 4.6%. NZ First over the line, despite dumping Asenati (which she said smacked of racism). Also Maori hold two seats, I wonder which two they think Maori will win? 63% believe Minister Collins should step down.

[Hifly]

Important to note that Labour are also down by a greater margin than the Nationals.

And there's a debate today which will be Cunliffe's one and only chance.