New Zealand general election, 20th September 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Last three polls:

Roy Morgan: Nat 48, Labour 27.5, Greens 11.5, (Left 39),  NZF 6.5, IM 2, MP 1, Con 1, ACT 0.5, UFNZ 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll: Nat 50, Labour 25.2, Greens 13.7, (Left 38.9), NFZ 4.3, Con 2.6, IM 2.1, MP 0.7, ACT 0.6, UFNZ 0.4
3NNR: Nat 45, Labour 26.4, Greens 13.5, (Left 39.9), NZF 6.3, Con 4.6, IM 2.1, UFNZ 0.4, ACT 0.3

_{Polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals and the Greens and to underestimate Labour and the minor parties (this should not be read as a prediction). There is also a tendency for different companies to produce wildly different figures. Additionally it should be noted that Fairfax-Ipsos tends to be very National leaning and that Roy Morgan can be highly volatile.}

[Hifly]

Labour sinking lower in latest Herald Digipoll. NZ First are over the threshold.

National 50.7 (up 0.7)

Labour 24.1 (down 1.1)

Greens 11.4 (down 2.3)

NZ First 5 (up 0.7)

Maori Party 1 (up 0.3)

Internet Mana 3.4 (up 1.3)

Conservatives 3.3 (up 0.7)

Act 0.3 (down 0.3)

United Future 0.2 (down 0.2)

[warandwar]

At the level of support that Internet-MANA is receiving now, John Minto would enter parliament (assuming honawira keeps his seat). 

[GAworth]

Collins resigns as Minister, but still contesting Papakura.
http://tvnz.co.nz/vote-2014-news/judith-collins-resigns-minister-cabinet-6067680

[Hifly]

Labour is continuing to sink lower in all three polls out today.

It appears as if the scandals have actually helped the Nationals, and that NZ First will make it into the next parliament.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So are we going to start thinking about predictions?

[Zanas]

I can make one that seems to constantly verify these days : this election's outcome is gonna be awful.

[Frodo]

So are we going to start thinking about predictions?

PM Key will win a third term, and the Nats will continue to control Parliament.  That much is clear.  The question rather should be whether they can win enough seats such that they can govern without coalition partners. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So are we going to start thinking about predictions?

PM Key will win a third term, and the Nats will continue to control Parliament.  That much is clear.  The question rather should be whether they can win enough seats such that they can govern without coalition partners. 

I don't believe they will govern in their own right. The polling I've seen is quite odd - I had a look at Napier. Which is  NAT held seat on a margin of about 11%. I have no idea about the kind of seat... so who knows what it means.

However, the 2011 Result saw the Nats win 52% of the electorate votes and 48% of the party votes. But the polling I've seen has the LAB candidate winning 39% of the electorate vote (this is an open seat and the NAT candidate is at 33%) and the NAT party vote at 44% with Labor down 4% and the Greens up 3%

Frankly, it's going to be interesting. I expect swings against the NATS, swings to the Greens and probably a hold steady for Labour.

[Hifly]

So are we going to start thinking about predictions?

PM Key will win a third term, and the Nats will continue to control Parliament.  That much is clear.  The question rather should be whether they can win enough seats such that they can govern without coalition partners. 

I don't believe they will govern in their own right. The polling I've seen is quite odd - I had a look at Napier. Which is  NAT held seat on a margin of about 11%. I have no idea about the kind of seat... so who knows what it means.

However, the 2011 Result saw the Nats win 52% of the electorate votes and 48% of the party votes. But the polling I've seen has the LAB candidate winning 39% of the electorate vote (this is an open seat and the NAT candidate is at 33%) and the NAT party vote at 44% with Labor down 4% and the Greens up 3%

Frankly, it's going to be interesting. I expect swings against the NATS, swings to the Greens and probably a hold steady for Labour.

That "odd" poll from Napier is down to the entrance of a popular Conservative candidate who's pulling a significant portion of the electorate vote. Don't attempt to make nationwide predictions based on that.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Follow the results here:
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

[Cassius]

National doing very well, Labour doing very badly (not that that was unexpected of course). It does seem though as if NZ First have overperformed a bit, whereas the Greens have done a little bit worse than was expected.

Current results seem to suggest a majority government for the Nationals.

[Frodo]

It looks like the Nats will be the first party in New Zealand history (since the adoption of MMP) to be able to form a majority government on their own, assuming results hold.
----------------------------------

Update -with virtually all the votes in:

Nationals: 61 seats (48%)
Labour: 32 seats (25%)
Greens: 13 seats (10%)
New Zealand First: 11 seats (9%)
Maori: 2 seats -quota (1.3%)

61 seats is the bare minimum required for a political party to form a government on its own.  

[Cassius]

Here's hoping that New Zealand breaks MMP.

[Frodo]

Follow the results here:
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

And here's another:

http://data.nzherald.co.nz/

[MaxQue]

There is also ACT New Zealand and United Future with one seat each.

There is a 5% threshold, but it doesn't apply to parties winning an electorate (through doesn't really apply to ACT and United Future because .66% and .21% doesn't gave any proportionnal list seats anyways, even without a threshold).

[MaxQue]

Here's hoping that New Zealand breaks MMP.

MMP is going nowhere. Government tried to remove it in 2011, population voted to keep it (referendum held at the same time than 2011 elections).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ew majority governments

In other news, forming an alliance with Kim Dotcom seems to have been a mistake for Mana.

[Cassius]

Here's hoping that New Zealand breaks MMP.

MMP is going nowhere. Government tried to remove it in 2011, population voted to keep it (referendum held at the same time than 2011 elections).

Oh I didn't mean it like that (though that would be good), I just meant in the sense that majority governments are very rare under MMP systems, and yet here National have won a majority despite not winning a majority of the vote. I just find this result rather comical (especially the dreadful performance of Labour).

[Hifly]

Labour have taken Te Tai Tokerau from Mana! Praise Jesus!

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like ACT is actually going to win a seat

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While not perfect... John Key has been a competent PM and hasn't really given the NZ people a reason to vote them out.

The fact that Labour's campaign was terrible, was a bonus for the Nationals.

[politicus]

There is also ACT New Zealand and United Future with one seat each.

There is a 5% threshold, but it doesn't apply to parties winning an electorate (through doesn't really apply to ACT and United Future because .66% and .21% doesn't gave any proportional list seats anyways, even without a threshold).

Odd that United Future can win an electorate on 0,2%, it must be an extremely small one, do they have very uneven electorates?

Clearly unfortunate that Conservatives can get 4,1% without representation and two parties get in with less than 1% (and less than 1/121 of the votes).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can make one that seems to constantly verify these days : this election's outcome is gonna be awful.

Aaaand we have a winner!

[Frodo]

Is David Cunliffe still insisting he is going to lead Labour into the next election despite the thumping it took last night?