If you could see the election result of just a single state, which would it be?

[Mister Mets]

I'm starting to rethink my selection of Virginia as there's a good chance that one of the statewide officeholders will be on the Democratic ticket.

If we learn that the Republican candidate wins the state by one point, it could mean that the ticket fell short of 270 electoral votes or that Republicans got 300+ electoral votes against the Hillary Clinton/ Mark Warner ticket.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Florida, but it could only tell definitively if the GOP lost, because Dems can lose Florida but still win nationally (like in 2012 where Romney very nearly carried the state but still would have lost decisively if he did) but if the GOP loses it then they are cooked.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If I knew who the republican candidate would be this would be easy. If Christie, New Jersey. If Bush or Rubio, Ohio. If Walker, Wisconsin. If Santorum, Iowa (I'd like to see what sort of evangelical turnout he can actually generate there). If Paul or Cruz, Arizona. If Carson, Texas. No sense looking at WV or MO, those states seem to be trending republican. I don't really see Clinton making up 20 points in Arkansas that Obama couldn't find, so no sense looking there, and Clinton isn't going to be competitive in KY, the only reason Bill Clinton won there was because Perot was taking away a whole bunch of votes from Bush/Dole.

But against a generic? That's tougher. I guess I'd go with Ohio since it's typically a good bellwether, but Wisconsin, Arizona, and Virginia are tempting as well.

[Clermont County GOPer]

Pennsylvania

[DS0816]

Four states—Virginia, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio—are on pace to continue being leading bellwethers which carry for presidential winners; and carry with statewide margins closely connected with the margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. North Carolina will become the next presidential bellwether state.

Much of the rest of the 45 states are fairly predictable in terms of their partisan identification. Some, like Indiana and Montana (and even Arizona), can have some unpredictably variation of degrees by which they get carried. That they are not easily predicted a year out from election. But a lot of others are predicable.

[Unimog]

New Hampshire

[carthur13]

New Hampshire

It would be interesting to see New Hampshire. Considering it swung wide from 2008-2012 (Obama's vote share shrunk 2.15%).  I would assume if a Republican candidate actually won the election, they would probably take New Hampshire.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Hawaii

[SNJ1985]

Pennsylvania

[Mister Mets]

It's interesting to look at previous elections to see what states gave misleading results about the General Election and which did not.

If you knew that the Republican would win Indiana by 10.20% in 2012, you might assume that they won the presidential election. Though if you knew that they won North Carolina by two points, or lost Florida, you could determine that Obama got reelected.

[dmmidmi]

If you knew that the Republican would win Indiana by 10.20% in 2012, you might assume that they won the presidential election.

You're joking, right?