British Columbia Municipal Elections 2014

[lilTommy]

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?

Elections are not tomorrow, they're on the 15th.

Thanks! sorry about that, I just saw a post that said tmr... my bad

Any other races to note? Victoria?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?

Elections are not tomorrow, they're on the 15th.

Thanks! sorry about that, I just saw a post that said tmr... my bad

Any other races to note? Victoria?

You scared me! I haven't been following the races in BC yet (because you know, Ontario!)

[Citizen Hats]

Victoria is uninteresting. Dean Fortin will sweep to victory again, though the amagamation vote *could* be interesting.  A friend of mine is running for council, Andrew Reeve, may very well win a seat.

Surrey is where the interesting race is, where there are three viable candidates.

Linda Hepner  Hepner is the anointed successor to Dianne Watts, the retiring and extremely popular incumbent Mayor for 'Surrey First'. She's running on a platform of continuing things as they are. Surrey First is widely credited with respectable development of the city, though crime is an issue. Hepner is a former municipal civil servant, and was at one point on former mayor Doug McCallum's team in council.  Watts is leaving for the Federal Conservative nomination, though Surrey-First is not a federally-partisan organization. Amusingly, the joke has been that her main policy plank is building a ferriswheel on Surrey's *very industrial* waterfront.

Doug McCallum McCallum is the former Mayor of Surrey, defeated by Watts several terms ago. He is running on a keep-taxes-low and tough-on-crime platform.  McCallum is known to have associations with the Federal Conservatives.  Incidentally, I quite nearly worked for his campaign in a mercenary capacity.

Barinder Rasode Rasode is an independent councilor, formerly member of Surrey First before she and Watts had a political falling out.  She is associated with the NDP.  She is running a somewhat more thoughtful law-and-order campaign, as in one that is willing to commit sociology, but is still mostly about Surrey's terrible crime rate. I was also nearly involved in this campaign.  Interestingly enough, organizers include both Moe Shihota, who is among the least respectable NDP hacks, and Mark Marissen, among the grimier BC Liberal ones.

[Hatman 🍁]

If anyone can find me a shapefile or at the very least a pdf or some image of the Surrey poll map used in 2011, I will make a map of the results.

[Citizen Hats]

I never thought to try, given then dominance of Surrey-First  

http://www.surrey.ca/files/COS_2011_Election_Results_by_Voting_Place.pdf

Upon closer inspection, Watts won every poll

[Hatman 🍁]

I never thought to try, given then dominance of Surrey-First  

http://www.surrey.ca/files/COS_2011_Election_Results_by_Voting_Place.pdf

Upon closer inspection, Watts won every poll

I did come across this, but I'm looking for a map

[Citizen Hats]

my point being that a map would be boring

[Hatman 🍁]

my point being that a map would be boring

So? Clearly boringness does not affect whether or not I have made a map in the past, why start now?

Do you know where there is a shapefile?

[Citizen Hats]

I've emailed them

[Citizen Hats]

http://www.insightswest.com/news/extremely-tight-mayoral-race-developing-in-surrey/

Tight race in Surrey, say polls

[DL]

Surrey has a gigantic indo-Canadian population and I wonder if they are adequately represented in an online panel...that could underestimate support for Rasode.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it safe to say that Hepner is the left wing candidate, McCallum the right wing candidate, and Rasode is more... populist?

[DL]

Is it safe to say that Hepner is the left wing candidate, McCallum the right wing candidate, and Rasode is more... populist?

I'm not so sure about that. I thought I had read that Heppner AND McCallum were rightwing candidates with Conservative party ties and that Rasode was backed by NDPers and a lot of Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks. I was just looking at the poll numbers and what issues were associated with each candidate.

[Citizen Hats]

Is it safe to say that Hepner is the left wing candidate, McCallum the right wing candidate, and Rasode is more... populist?

Surrey politics is not split along senior partisanships, though McCallum has ties to the Tories and Rasode has ties to the NDP.  McCallum and Hepner and Hepner and Rasode have all at one time been on the same ticket.  The incumbent Surrey-First ticket includes Tories like Watts and NDP like Villaneuve and formerly Rasode. 

That being said, I wouldn't call Hepner the 'left-wing' candidate, but she's perhaps the most 'stay the course' on the existing form of development in Surrey. Rasode has been backed by organized labour. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it safe to say the race in Burnaby is primarily between Corrigan and Daren Hancott?

[Citizen Hats]

Is it safe to say the race in Burnaby is primarily between Corrigan and Daren Hancott?

Yes, having done a quick tour through town I was surprised at the number of BF signs.  If the gay-serum allegations are true than they are very much a horrible party

[Hatman 🍁]

Question about Vancouver City Council: Is there a gentleman's agreement as to why the parties don't run a full slate? Or is there a law, or is it something that is frowned upon by voters?

[Citizen Hats]

I think it's an optimization thing.  Parties don't expect to take all ten votes, so only having 8 candidates reduces the possibility that the party loses seats because the votes were spread to thinly. Vision knows that some people who will mostly vote for them will cast a vote or two for  Carr (maybe half) or Affleck or what have you

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange; I would think it be common for people to vote for an entire slate. It has happened before where one party has won an entire slate.

Anyways, next question:

It looks like Malcolm Brodie is going to easily be re-election in Richmond? His main opponent appears to be Richard Lee who is running a (right wing) populist campaign, but his party has no seats on council and is only running one candidate.

There are several parties running four council, two of which have seats. Do you know anything about Richmond Community Coalition and Richmond First? I suppose they both support the mayor.

[Citizen Hats]

Strange; I would think it be common for people to vote for an entire slate. It has happened before where one party has won an entire slate.

Anyways, next question:

It looks like Malcolm Brodie is going to easily be re-election in Richmond? His main opponent appears to be Richard Lee who is running a (right wing) populist campaign, but his party has no seats on council and is only running one candidate.

There are several parties running four council, two of which have seats. Do you know anything about Richmond Community Coalition and Richmond First? I suppose they both support the mayor.

First bit: Polling has Adrianne Car getting 50% of the vote, and most of that has got to be otherwise Vision voters.  Furthermore, Vision may have only ran 8 candidates as a concession to the Green party to keep them off the mayoral ballot.  In 2011, it was part of an explicit coalition strategy with COPE, with three spots left for COPE's three candidates who all lost because not all that many people actually like COPE.

Second Bit: I'm not up to date on Richmond

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, but why doesn't NPA run 10 candidates?

What other municipalities are you up to date on? And have you heard back from Surrey?

[andrew_c]

The mayoral race in Vancouver is getting pretty interesting.

Robertson 46%
LaPointe 41%
Wong 9%

27% Undecided

It's essentially a tossup at this point.

[Citizen Hats]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/surrey-election-seen-as-dry-run-for-federal-vote-in-2015/article21583649/

Nonsensical headline, but does contain some interesting details

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/british-columbia-2014-municipal.html Criticism expected