British Columbia Municipal Elections 2014
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Citizen Hats
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« on: June 23, 2014, 12:00:17 AM »

Vision Vancouver nominations completed today . NDP slate won from appearances, defeating uncoordinated Liberals and others.  Only Parks board and School Board up for consideration, council not being contested, with new council candidate Niki Sharma moving up form Parks Board to fill in the Council slate of eight out of ten slots.  Some Liberals expressing great disappointment with rather open NDP slate activity.

Otherwise, the NPA's mystery mayoral candidate remains mysterious, as the board have yet to announce who they have already chosen. 

Elsewhere, Surrey is going to get interesting. It is rumored that the secretive and oligarchic processes of Surrey First have already selected a replacement for Dianne Watts, who will quite likely seek federal office. Formerly SF now independent councilor Barinder Rasode is seeking to run as in independent, bringing aboard such mysteriously opposed campaign talent as Mark Marissen and Moe Shihota. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2014, 08:27:47 AM »

Which party is Watts going to run for? I think she's a Conservative, right?

Is Gregor Robertson running for re-election? What are his chances of winning?
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2014, 09:45:50 AM »

Which party is Watts going to run for? I think she's a Conservative, right?

Is Gregor Robertson running for re-election? What are his chances of winning?


Watts could run red or blue, but I've heard through the grapevine that she is going for the Tories. 

Robertson is running again and I figure he would win. The NPA is perennially a mess. They recently expelled two school-board members after they rather sociopathically argued that more support for trans-students would be bad for the property market.  Urban agriculture and bikelanes are their Benghazi of sorts, so it's hard for people outside their bubble to take their rants seriously.  They are certainly a threat, and a well funded on at that, but they are their own worst enemy.  Left-wing COPE will likely run a mayoral candidate, which could hurt Vision, but COPE has been caving in on itself for some time now. Tim Lewis has driven out many of the less radical members. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2014, 09:54:13 AM »

COPE is running a mayoral candidate? Oh dear. I know Robertson is a bit too right wing, but it could allow the NPA to win. But, at least they wouldn't do well on council. Are the Greens running a candidate? Perhaps Carr?
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2014, 10:36:05 AM »

COPE is running a mayoral candidate? Oh dear. I know Robertson is a bit too right wing, but it could allow the NPA to win. But, at least they wouldn't do well on council. Are the Greens running a candidate? Perhaps Carr?

The Green Party in Vancouver has a history of not tilting at windmills, which is the secret of their surprising staying power. They've made deals and run strategically to maximize their influence.  They're running three candidates for council, but I've heard no word of a Mayoral candidate. Interestingly, one of their candidates, Pete Fry, is the son of the Hon. Hedy Fry. With Vision only running 8 candidates, that's a wise choice. They have much higher name recognition than COPE, and given cope's self-alienating tendencies perhaps the Greens will displace them
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2014, 12:10:29 PM »

How pragmatic, and well... un-Green like.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2014, 02:25:40 AM »

http://www.straight.com/news/676081/left-front-considers-ousting-tim-louis-cope-chair

Coalition of Progressive Electors leader and all-around True-leftist Tim Louis's leadership of COPE under threat from further leftists, as though COPE was in any more need of internal turmoil
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2014, 03:06:03 PM »

http://www.biv.com/article/20140714/BIV0109/140719972/npa-appoints-kirk-lapointe-as-vancouver-mayoral-candidate

NPA announces previously secret mayoral candidate, media exec, former CBC Ombudsman and UEL Resident Kirk LaPoint
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2014, 04:26:18 PM »

Can someone explain Vancouver municipal parties?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2014, 05:50:55 PM »

Can someone explain Vancouver municipal parties?

Brendan can probably explain better, but Vision = left wing, NPA = right wing and COPE are on the far left. Greens are Greens. That's probably no better an explanation than a Wikipedia search though.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2014, 01:08:12 AM »

Can someone explain Vancouver municipal parties?

Vision is a center left brokerage party, the NPA is an anti socialist coalition party, and todays COPE is a leftist fringe. Given the strength of the center, the NPA-BC LIberal model doesn't really work anymore. Vision voters are more pragmatic NDP and all but the most cranky Liberals (including a great many BC Liberals. NPA voters are typically conservatives or more right wing Liberals. Who knows what a COPE voter looks like these days, and is suspect that the greens will take more votes. Of course, it wasn't always this way
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DL
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2014, 07:14:39 AM »

A few years ago Christy Clark wanted to be the NPA candidate for mayor of Vancouver. She lost the nomination. The NPA is still very much a farm team for the BC Liberals. Gregor Robertson was an NDP mla before being elected mayor for Vision Vancouver.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2014, 08:19:03 AM »

Gregor Roberston might be a federal Liberal though. At least he has been rumoured to run for the Libs.
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DL
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2014, 08:49:14 AM »

Gregor Roberston might be a federal Liberal though. At least he has been rumoured to run for the Libs.

Apparently he came very close to running for the BC NDP leadership this year too. I get the impression that he is a bit of a left-of-centre opportunist who will run for whichever party he thinks is better positioned to win. But the fact that he is running for re-election as mayor of Vancouver in the fall of 2014 suggests he would not quit and run federally less than a year later.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2014, 12:01:57 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2014, 12:04:44 PM by Citizen Hats »

That's the impression I get. From what I understand, Roberston did not particularly enjoy his time as an NDP MLA.  He's in that category of center left which can go either way, and is certainly friendly to both.   Despite the entreaties of the Liberal Party, however, he will in all likelihood not be running with us
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2014, 12:34:44 PM »

NPA is basically a pro-corruption party.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2014, 12:50:48 PM »

Some believe that Vision can really be explained by Gregor Robertson's old juice company, Happy Planet.  It's the juice that everyone assumes is organic, but surprisingly isn't
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lilTommy
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2014, 07:16:17 AM »

Meena Wong, Former NDP Candidate in Vancouver South is seeking the COPE Mayoral nomination
Would that not be considered a good candidate for COPE, given their recent tilt to the fringe/hard-ish left? Any chance they could win a council seat? I don't see any recognizable names running for the nomination, other then Tim Louis

http://www.straight.com/news/720666/meena-wong-runs-cope-mayoral-nomination

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2014, 09:32:26 AM »

COPE is running a mayoral candidate? Good news for the NPA
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2014, 01:01:02 PM »

It could very well be the margin, though Vision is very energetically trying to tar LaPointe for comments on bike lanes, the Arbutus Corridor negotiations, the TransMountain Pipeline, and the Broadway Line

LaPointe's responses haven't been particularly well crafted. Though he is articulate, and intelligent, the easy sound bite takaway from what he's written in response is that LaPointe is indecisive, and stands up for little guy corporations like Kinder Morgan and Canadian Pacific being bullied by big-bad city hall.

Does he say that? of course not, but Vision will twist the knife as they are deft at doing.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 12:54:36 PM »

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2014, 01:55:25 PM »

Someone has been telling Chinese families in Burnaby that the city is injecting their children with a gay-serum to make them gay. This has been traced back to canvassers for the opposition 'Burnaby-First' party.   

http://www.burnabynow.com/bbyelxn/news/gay-serum-rumour-riles-burnaby-politics-1.1490943
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lilTommy
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2014, 01:04:41 PM »

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2014, 01:35:27 PM »

Well, the pollsters are expecting increased turnout. The theory is that Wong has activated voters, but not converted existing voters. So in a usual election, I'd expect the NPA to bottom out at 40%, but with increased turnout going to Wong they could go into the mid thirties.  I expect Robertson will win by ten points.

As for council, polling has it that Carr is the most popular candidate, followed by Affleck, a slew of Visionites, and everyone else.  So we could see a minority council or a narrow vision council, which should be interesting.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2014, 03:41:09 PM »

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?

Elections are not tomorrow, they're on the 15th.
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