When will Orange County, CA turn (Atlas) red, if it does turn?

[JRP1994]

What's your guess?

[Matty]

I live here, and I highly doubt it will in 2016 or even 2020.

[Sbane]

Depends if Republicans continue to do poorly with Asians or not. If their problems continue, then 2016 is a possibility with a 8-10 point national Democratic win. I don't think that's likely, and even if it happens due to a Clinton candidacy, it won't be because of people in Orange County swinging to the democrats.

[Miles]

FWIW, everything else constant, Obama would have had to get 66% statewide in 2012 to have carried it.

[Never]

It might turn in 2016, but only if the Democrats win nationally. If the current political environment holds, I'd say that Orange County would go Democratic by 2020 at the latest simply based on current trends.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Do Republicans fix their image on cultural issues to the point that they win middle and upper income Asians and Latinos at the rate that they win affluent Whites?  That's a tall order, but if they do I don't see OC turning anytime soon.  If the parties remain the exact same as do trends (this also isn't all that likely...), it'll eventually turn but most certainly not by 2016, especially if an "establishment" candidate is elected (I could see Clinton carrying it easily vs. Santorum, as Santorum is not even really a Republican at this point).

[Mr. Illini]

Not in the foreseeable future, unlike many similar wealthy suburban counties in Chicago and New York.

[H. Ross Peron]

2016 isn't impossible depending on how successful Hillary is.

[Smash255]

Really depends on the candidates and of course the national result

For 2016 the Democrats probably need to win by 8 points or so nationally in order to take Orange County (though perhaps a couple points less against a Santorum or Perry religious type)

I don't see it on the Democratic side of the national average for quite some time, but I do see the level in which the Democrats will need to win nationally in order to pick it up shrinking

[Person Man]

Is Orange County and Colorado Springs kind of the same place?

[Smash255]

Is Orange County and Colorado Springs kind of the same place?

No, while it is certainly more socially conservative than most of the surrounding areas, its certainly not Colorado Springs.  If you are going to make a comparison to anywhere in Colorado, it is probably closer to Douglas County, though becoming increasingly diverse.